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Trendovi i predviđanja: djelomičan porast emisija u EU-u zbog oporavka nakon pandemije i energetske krize

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News Objavljeno 2022-11-24 Zadnja izmjena 2023-02-06
5 min read
Prema najnovijem izvješću „Trendovi i predviđanja” koje je danas objavila Europska agencija za okoliš (EEA) emisije stakleničnih plinova i konzumacija energije porasla je 2021. prvenstveno zbog oporavka nakon pandemije. Većina država članica EU-a postigla je klimatske i energetske ciljeve EU-a iz 2020. te se sada okreće prema klimatskoj neutralnosti uz istovremeno rješavanje postojeće krize s opskrbom energijom. Postizanje ambicioznijih klimatskih i energetskih ciljeva do 2030. zahtijeva više od dvostruko većeg godišnjeg napretka u uvođenju obnovljive energije te smanjenju potrošnje energije i emisija stakleničnih plinova.

Ušteda energije i jačanje obnovljivih izvora ključni su, ne samo za rješavanje neposredne energetske krize, već i za postizanje klimatske neutralnosti

Na temelju podataka iz izvješća EEA-a Trendovi i predviđanja u Europi 2022. nakon dugog razdoblja smanjenja emisija stakleničnih plinova u Europi, gospodarski oporavak nakon mjera ograničenog kretanja zbog Covida-19 doveo je do porasta emisija, posebno u sektorima prijevoza, industrije i opskrbe energijom. U kontekstu prijeteće energetske krize i visoke cijene plina, u sektoru opskrbe energijom došlo je do djelomičnog prelaska na goriva s većim udjelom ugljika, dok je snažan rast obnovljive energije zabilježen prijašnjih godina oslabio u 2021. Kako bi se zaustavio taj trend, ključno je da se sadašnjim odlukama o energetskoj infrastrukturi obuhvati cilj klimatske neutralnosti u budućnosti kako bi se izbjeglo dugoročne učinke ovisnosti o ugljiku.

„U mjesecima i godinama koji dolaze bit će potrebne značajne aktivnosti kako bi se osiguralo da države članice EU-a donesu ambiciozne planove za smanjenje emisija kojima bi se ispunilo klimatske ciljeve EU-a. Iako su potrebne kratkotrajne mjere za veću opskrbu energijom ove zime, ta ulaganja za posljedicu ne bi smjela imati dugoročnu ovisnost o fosilnim gorivima. Ušteda energije i jačanje obnovljivih izvora ključni su, ne samo za rješavanje neposredne energetske krize, već i za postizanje klimatske neutralnosti” kaže Hans Bruyninckx, izvršni direktor EEA.

 

Porast emisija i potrošnje energije

Prema preliminarnim podatcima koje su prijavile države članice EU-a, emisije stakleničnih plinova porasle su za 5 % 2021. u odnosu na 2020., uključujući međunarodni zračni promet. Taj je porast emisija s druge strane još uvijek ispod razine prije pandemije bolesti Covid-19 iz 2019.

Procjene ukazuju na porast potrošnje energije 2021. u području potrošnje i primarne i finalne energije od 6 % odnosno 5 % u odnosu na 2020. Potrošnjom primarne energije mjeri se potražnja za energijom, dok se finalna potrošnja energije odnosi na energiju koju krajnji korisnici doista koriste. To povećanje potrošnje energije uglavnom se može pripisati gospodarskom oporavku. Učinak rasta cijena energije na podatke o godišnjoj potrošnji 2021. još se ne može utvrditi, no očekuje se da će biti jasnije 2022.

Preliminarni podatci ukazuju na to da je 2021. ukupan udio obnovljivih izvora energije u Europi ostao na 22 % potrošnje energije, što je usporilo inače snažan rast posljednjih godina. To se može objasniti manjim udjelom energije vjetra i hidroenergije u 2021. s istovremeno većom potrošnjom energije.

 

Godina ispred nas ključna je za napredak prema ostvarivanju ciljeva do 2030.

U godinama koje su pred nama bit će potrebno održati znatna smanjenja emisija u odnosu na svaku prethodnu godinu kako bi se dugoročno postigla klimatska neutralnost. Europskim propisom o klimi cilj smanjenja emisija stakleničkih plinova do 2030. povećan je na najmanje 55 % u odnosu na razine iz 1990. Europski parlament i države članice trenutačno pregovaraju o sveobuhvatnom paketu „Spremni za 55 %”, uzimajući u obzir i predloženi plan RePower EU iz 2022.

Kako bi se postigao cilj od 55 % neto emisija stakleničkih plinova do 2030., emisije bi se u prosjeku trebale smanjiti za 134 milijuna tona ugljikova dioksida (MtCO2 eq) godišnje u odnosu na procijenjene razine iz 2021. To je više nego dvostruko više od prosječnog godišnjeg smanjenja ostvarenog u razdoblju od 1990. do 2020. Svi sektori moraju znatno pojačati napore za smanjenje emisija stakleničkih plinova. Osim toga, mora se povećati smanjenje CO2 korištenjem ili prenamjenom zemljišta i šumarstvom da bi se preokrenuo trenutačni trend smanjenog ponora ugljika u EU.

Istodobno bi se potrošnja energije trebala znatno smanjiti tijekom sljedećih godina, dok novopredloženi cilj za 2030. u kontekstu plana REPower EU zahtijeva više nego dvostruko veće godišnje uštede energije u razdoblju 2022. – 2030. To se odnosi i na obnovljivu energiju: od 2005. udio obnovljive energije u konačnoj bruto potrošnji energije u Europi prosječno se povećavao za 0,8 postotnih bodova svake godine. Taj bi se broj trebao povećati na 2,5 postotnih bodova godišnje do 2030. kako bi se ostvario viši cilj od 45 % obnovljive energije predložen u planu REPowerEU.

Iako je na razini država članica već postignut znatan napredak, postojeće politike i mjere nisu dovoljne za postizanje novih ambicioznih klimatskih i energetskih ciljeva. Do sredine 2023. države članice dostavit će nacrte svojih ažuriranih nacionalnih energetskih i klimatskih planova. Time će im se omogućiti da uvedu dodatne mjere i razviju planove za razdoblje do 2030. koji odražavaju nove ambicije EU-a i njegov cilj klimatske neutralnosti.

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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