Progress towards national greenhouse gas emissions targets in Europe

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions covered by EU Effort Sharing legislation, including transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste, fell by 21% between 2005 and 2024. Estimated 2025 ESR emissions remain virtually unchanged from 2024 and above the annual emissions allocation. By 2030, Member States are projected to reduce emissions by 32% under ‘With Existing Measures’ (WEM) and 38% under ‘With Additional Measures’ (WAM), compared with 2005. Even with additional measures, projected reductions remain short of the EU-wide 2030 Effort Sharing objective.

The EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) covers greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from domestic transport (excluding aviation), buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste. These account for 64% of gross EU GHG emissions under the European Climate Law target scope (excluding LULUCF). In addition to establishing national targets for the reduction of GHG emissions in EU Member States by 2030, the ESR also defines annual emission limits (AEAs) for the years 2021-2030.

In 2024, emissions from the buildings sector recorded the largest sectoral reduction, followed by waste, industry, energy, agriculture and transport since 2005. The 2025 estimate (approximated inventory) for total ESR emissions is virtually unchanged from 2024 and approximately 5% above the combined annual emission allocations of all EU Member States for 2025.

Member States contribute to the EU-wide reduction through binding national targets ranging from 10% to 50% reduction by 2030 compared with 2005. They are also subject to gradually decreasing AEAs from 2021 to 2030.

In 2024, 14 Member States had Effort Sharing emissions above their annual emission allocations: Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, Portugal, Spain and Sweden. Iceland and Norway (non-EU countries but members of the EEA) had emissions greater than their AEAs in 2024. The remaining 13 Member States were below their allocations. Countries above their allocations may need to use available flexibilities to comply with the annual limits.

For 2025, estimated ESR emissions are below the AEAs for 9 Member States: Bulgaria, Czechia, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Preliminary emissions from the remaining 18 Member States, Iceland, and Norway exceed their AEAs.

For 2030, five Member States: Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, Greece and Portugal are projected to have ESR emissions at or below their AEAs. When additional measures are included (WAM), this number increases to 14: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.

The assessment uses the latest available GHG Inventory emissions data for 2024, estimates for 2025 and Member State projections to 2030. As estimates and projections can change, they do not determine final compliance. Future updates, additional policies and land-use credits or debits may also affect the results. Overall, the assessment shows that further action is needed to close the remaining EU-wide gap.

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In 2007, EU leaders set the target of a 20% reduction of EU GHG emissions by 2020 compared with the emissions in 1990. To attain this goal, a comprehensive legislative package known as the EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package was introduced. This package encompassed not only climate objectives but also a commitment to substantially expand renewable energy sources and enhance energy efficiency. To fulfill the climate objectives, a twofold legal framework was put in place:

The implementation of a cap-and-trade system with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for regulating emissions from energy-intensive industries and the power sector. In this framework, the emission cap for 2020 was set at a 21% reduction compared to 2005 levels.
An effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10% compared with 2005 levels, shared between the EU Member States through differentiated annual national GHG targets under the ESD.

Towards 2030, the ‘Fit for 55’ legislative package, a key element of the European Green Deal, sets the EU on a path to reach its climate targets in a fair, cost-effective, and competitive way. It builds on the previous 2020 energy and climate framework, but also includes many new policy instruments and targets that incentivise climate action across all sectors of society. As part of the new energy and climate framework for 2030, the national emission targets for Member States are brought in line with the overall emission reduction target in the EU to reduce net GHG emission with at least 55% compared with 1990. The Effort Sharing Regulation, as amended in 2023, therefore establishes an overall reduction target for the Member States of 40% compared with 2005 levels. This target is shared between the EU Member States through differentiated annual national GHG targets, ranging from -10% to –50%.

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Progress towards national greenhouse gas emissions targets in Europe

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Progress towards national greenhouse gas emissions targets in Europe

Figure 1. EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Regulation from 2005 to 2025 and projected emissions to 2030

Figure 2. National progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation

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