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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste sectors are regulated by the European Union Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) and have fallen by 19.8% between 2005 and 2023. Preliminary estimates for 2024 show virtually no improvement compared with 2023 levels, leading to emissions slightly above the trajectory for the year. The more ambitious national targets for Effort Sharing emissions adopted in the context of the amendment of the ESR in 2023 require EU countries to step up efforts.

The EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) covers greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from domestic transport (excluding aviation), buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste. These account for more than 65% of total EU GHG emissions. In addition to establishing national targets for the reduction of GHG emissions in EU Member States by 2030, the ESR also defines annual emission limits for the years 2021-2030.

Emissions under the ESR were 19.8% lower in 2023 than 2005, with the buildings sector accounting for the largest reduction (-32.4%). Transport (-5.3%) and agriculture (-7.9%) sectors saw more modest reductions. Provisional figures for 2024 show virtually no decrease in total Effort Sharing GHG emissions compared to 2023. For 2024, GHG emissions are estimated to be slightly above the aggregated emission limits defined by the legislation for this year.

With the amendments to the ESR adopted in 2023, the EU-level GHG reduction target for 2030 from the Effort Sharing sectors was raised from 29% to 40%, compared with 2005 levels, with emission limits tightened for each year up to 2030. This implies that in the coming years, emissions will need to decline significantly faster than the reduction rate observed in recent years.

Based on projections by Member States in 2025, current policies and measures will not be sufficient to achieve this acceleration. Existing measures are projected to strengthen GHG emission reductions under the Effort Sharing to reach a level that is 29.7% below 2005 levels by 2030. When considering the additional planned measures, the projected reduction reaches 38.1%, reducing the gap to the 2030 target to 2%.

Member States collectively contribute to EU-wide emission reductions through specific binding national targets. These range from a 50% reduction by 2030 compared to 2005 for some countries, to a 10% decrease for others. Member States are also subject to gradually decreasing annual emission limits for each year from 2021 to 2030.

Figure 2. National progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets under the Effort Sharing legislation

Six Member States (Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, and Malta) exhibited Effort Sharing sector emissions above their annual emission allocations in 2023. These Member States will need to make use of the flexibilities available under the legislative framework to comply with their annual emission limits.

Preliminary data for 10 Member States suggest that in 2024, GHG emissions remained below the emission limits: Czechia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, and Slovenia. This means an increasing number of Member States requiring flexibilities to reach their national targets appears to have grown from six in 2023 to 17 in 2024.

By 2030, GHG projections indicate that only six Member States (Greece, Croatia, Bulgaria, Czechia, Denmark, and Portugal) are on track to meet Effort Sharing targets with current measures. With additional measures, 14 Member States—Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg, Romania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain—project emissions below their 2030 targets.

If Member States perform well under the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation, they may use limited land use credits to meet Effort Sharing targets. However, a substantial increase in effort is still required to achieve the higher national targets.