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Tendences un prognozes: ES emisiju ierobežots kāpums, ņemot vērā atveseļošanos pēc pandēmijas un enerģētikas krīzi

Mainīt valodu
Jaunumi Publicēts 24.11.2022 Pēdējās izmaiņas 03.08.2023
5 min read
Siltumnīcefekta gāzu emisijas un enerģijas patēriņš 2021. gadā palielinājās galvenokārt saistībā ar Eiropas atveseļošanos pēc pandēmijas - to liecina jaunākais ziņojums “Tendences un prognozes”, ko šodien publicējusi Eiropas Vides aģentūra (EVA). Lielākā daļa ES dalībvalstu ir sekmīgi sasniegušas ES 2020. gada klimata un enerģētikas mērķrādītājus un tagad pievērš lielāku uzmanību klimatneitralitātei, vienlaikus risinot arī pašreizējās energoapgādes krīzes jautājumus. Lai sasniegtu vērienīgākos 2030. gada klimata un enerģētikas mērķrādītājus, nāksies vairāk nekā divkāršot ikgadējo progresu, ieviešot atjaunojamos energoresursus un samazinot enerģijas patēriņu un siltumnīcefekta gāzu emisijas.

Enerģijas taupīšana un atjaunojamo enerģijas avotu nostiprināšana ir ļoti svarīga ne tikai pašreizējās enerģētikas krīzes pārvarēšanai, bet arī klimatneitralitātes sasniegšanai,

Pēc ilgstošas siltumnīcefekta gāzu emisiju samazināšanās Eiropā ekonomikas atveseļošanās pēc COVID-19 ierobežojumu atcelšanas ir izraisījusi emisiju pieaugumu, jo īpaši transporta, rūpniecības un energoapgādes nozarēs, liecina dati, kas iesniegti EVA ziņojumam “Tendences un prognozes Eiropā 2022. gadā”. Ņemot vērā draudošo enerģētikas krīzi un jo īpaši augstās gāzes cenas, energoapgādes nozarē notika daļēja pāreja uz tādu kurināmo, kas rada lielāku oglekļa dioksīda daudzumu, savukārt pēdējos gados novērotais būtiskais atjaunojamo energoresursu izmantošanas pieaugums 2021. gadā ir palēninājies. Lai ierobežotu minētās tendences, ir ļoti svarīgi, lai šodienas lēmumos par enerģētikas infrastruktūru, tiek ņemts vērā klimatneitralitātes mērķrādītājs nākotnē, nepieļaujot oglekļiesīksti.

“Nākamajos mēnešos un gados būs nepieciešama aktīva rīcība, lai ES dalībvalstis var ieviest vērienīgus emisiju samazināšanas plānus, sasniedzot ES klimata mērķrādītājus. Lai gan šoziem ir nepieciešami īstermiņa pasākumi energoapgādes palielināšanai, šiem pasākumiem nevajadzētu ievest Eiropu vēl daudzus gadus ilgā atkarībā no fosilā kurināmā. Enerģijas taupīšana un atjaunojamo enerģijas avotu nostiprināšana ir ļoti svarīga ne tikai pašreizējās enerģētikas krīzes pārvarēšanai, bet arī klimatneitralitātes sasniegšanai,” sacīja EVA izpilddirektorsHans Bruyninckx.

 

Emisiju pieaugums: enerģijas patēriņš palielinās

Saskaņā ar ES dalībvalstu paziņotajiem provizoriskajiem datiem siltumnīcefekta gāzu emisijas 2021. gadā, salīdzinot ar 2020. gadu, ir pieaugušas par 5 %, tostarp starptautiskajā aviācijā. Tomēr šīs emisijas joprojām ir būtiski zemākas par 2019. gada līmeni pirms Covid-19.

Aplēses liecina, ka enerģijas patēriņš 2021. gadā ir palielinājies gan primārā, gan galīgā enerģijas patēriņa aspektā, attiecīgi par 6 % un 5 %, salīdzinot ar 2020. gadu. Primārais enerģijas patēriņš izsaka enerģijas pieprasījumu, savukārt galīgais enerģijas patēriņš norāda, cik galalietotāji faktiski patērē. Šādu enerģijas patēriņa palielināšanos lielā mērā var saistīt ar ekonomikas atveseļošanos. Energoresursu cenu 2021. gada pieauguma ietekme uz gada patēriņa rādītājiem vēl nebija redzama, un ir gaidāms, ka tā būs izteiktāka 2022. gadā.

Provizoriskie dati liecina, ka Eiropas kopējais atjaunojamo enerģijas avotu īpatsvars enerģijas patēriņā 2021. gadā ir saglabājies 22 % līmenī, pārtraucot pēdējo gadu spēcīgo pieaugumu. To var izskaidrot ar mazāku vēja enerģijas un hidroenerģijas izmantojumu 2021. gadā, kā arī ar enerģijas patēriņa pieaugumu.

 

Būtisks gads virzībā uz 2030. gada mērķrādītāju sasniegšanu

Tuvākajos gados katru gadu būs ievērojami jāsamazina emisijas, lai ilgtermiņā panāktu klimatneitralitāti. Pieņemot Eiropas Klimata tiesību aktu, 2030. gada samazinājuma mērķrādītājs tika palielināts līdz vismaz 55 % no siltumnīcefekta gāzu emisiju neto samazinājuma līdz 2030. gadam, salīdzinot ar 1990. gada līmeni. Šobrīd Eiropas Parlaments un dalībvalstis risina sarunas par visaptverošu paketi “Gatavi  mērķrādītājam 55%”, vienlaikus ņemot vērā arī ierosinātoREPowerEU plānu 2022. gadam.

Lai sasniegtu 2030. gada mērķrādītāju 55 % no neto siltumnīcefekta gāzu emisijām, emisijas būs jāsamazina vidēji par 134 miljoniem tonnu oglekļa dioksīda (MtCO2 ekv.) gadā, salīdzinot ar 2021. gada aplēsto līmeni. Tas vairāk nekā divas reizes pārsniedz vidējo ikgadējo samazinājumu, kas tika nodrošināts laikā no 1990. gada līdz 2020. gadam. Visās nozarēs ir būtiski jākāpina centieni siltumnīcefekta gāzu emisiju samazināšanai. Turklāt ir jāpalielina CO2 piesaiste zemes izmantojumā, zemes izmantojuma maiņā un mežsaimniecībā, tādējādi apvēršot pašreizējo tendenci, ka ES sarūk oglekļa piesaiste.

Tajā pašā laikā enerģijas patēriņam tuvākajos gados ir būtiski jāsamazinās. Jaunais ierosinātais 2030. gada mērķrādītājs saistībā arREPowerEUplānu paredz vairāk nekā divkāršot ikgadējo enerģijas ietaupījumu laikposmā no 2022. gada līdz 2030. gadam. Tas pats attiecas arī uz atjaunojamiem energoresursiem. Kopš 2005. gada atjaunojamo energoresursu īpatsvars Eiropas enerģijas bruto galapatēriņā katru gadu ir pieaudzis vidēji par 0,8 procentpunktiem. Šim rādītājam līdz 2030. gadam ir jāpalielinās līdz 2,5 procentpunktiem gadā, lai sasniegtuREPowerEUplānā ierosināto atjaunojamo energoresursu palielināto 45 % mērķrādītāju.

Lai gan dalībvalstu līmenī jau ir panākts būtisks progress, pašreizējā rīcībpolitika un pasākumi nav pietiekami, lai sasniegtu jaunos vērienīgos klimata un enerģētikas mērķrādītājus. Līdz 2023. gada vidum dalībvalstis iesniegs savu nacionālo enerģētikas un klimata plānu atjaunošanas projektus. Tie valstīm dos iespēju uzlabot pasākumus un izstrādāt plānus laikposmam līdz 2030. gadam, kas atspoguļo jaunās ES ambīcijas un klimatneitralitātes mērķi.

 

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Updated climate and energy indicators:

Saistītais saturs

Pamatots ar datiem

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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