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Trendi in projekcije: delno povečanje emisij v EU v času okrevanja po pandemiji in energetske krize

Spremeni jezik
Novice Objavljeno 14.12.2022 Zadnja sprememba 10.01.2023
4 min read
Po podatkih najnovejšega poročila „Trendi in projekcije“, ki ga je danes objavila Evropska agencija za okolje (EEA), so se emisije toplogrednih plinov in poraba energije leta 2021 povečale predvsem zaradi okrevanja Evrope po pandemiji. Večina držav članic EU je uspešno dosegla podnebne in energetske cilje EU za leto 2020, zdaj pa svojo pozornost usmerja k podnebni nevtralnosti in pri tem rešuje tudi trenutno krizo na področju oskrbe z energijo. Da bi dosegli ambicioznejše podnebne in energetske cilje za leto 2030, bo treba več kot podvojiti letni napredek pri uvajanju obnovljivih virov energije ter zmanjšati porabo energije in emisije toplogrednih plinov.

Varčevanje z energij o in krepitev obnovljivih virov energije nista ključnega pomena samo za obvladovanje trenutne energetske krize, ampak tudi za doseganje podnebne nevtralnosti,

Izvršni direktor EEA, Hans Bruyninckx.

Po podatkih iz poročila agencije EEA o trendih in projekcijah v Evropi za leto 2022 so se emisije toplogrednih plinov v Evropi po dolgem obdobju zmanjševanja povečale zaradi gospodarskega okrevanja po omejitvenih ukrepih med pandemijo covida-19, zlasti v prometnem in industrijskem sektorju ter sektorju oskrbe z energijo. Zaradi preteče energetske krize in zlasti visokih cen plina je v sektorju oskrbe z energijo delno prišlo do prehoda na ogljično intenzivnejša goriva, močna rast obnovljive energije iz zadnjih let pa se je leta 2021 upočasnila. Da bi omejili te trende je ključno, da se pri odločitvah o energetski infrastrukturi upošteva cilj glede podnebno nevtralne prihodnosti, da bi se izognili učinkom odvisnosti od ogljika. 

„V prihajajočih mesecih in letih bodo potrebni kritični ukrepi, ki bodo omogočali, da bodo lahko države članice EU izvedle ambiciozne načrte za zmanjšanje emisij in tako izpolnile podnebne cilje EU. Čeprav to zimo potrebujemo kratkoročne ukrepe za pospešitev oskrbe z energijo, s temi naložbami Evrope ne bi smeli vpeti v primež večletne odvisnosti od fosilnih goriv. Varčevanje z energijo in krepitev obnovljivih virov energije nista ključnega pomena samo za obvladovanje trenutne energetske krize, ampak tudi za doseganje podnebne nevtralnosti,“ je povedal izvršni direktor EEA Hans Bruyninckx. 

Ponovno povečanje emisij; poraba energije gre navzgor 

Glede na predhodne podatke, ki so jih posredovale države članice EU, so se emisije toplogrednih plinov od leta 2020 do leta 2021 povečale za 5 %, vključno z mednarodnim letalstvom, kljub temu pa so manjše kot pred pandemijo covida leta 2019. 

Ocene kažejo, da se je poraba primarne energije leta 2021 v primerjavi z letom 2020 povečala za 6 %, poraba končne energije pa za 5 %. Pri porabi primarne energije se meri povpraševanje po energiji, poraba končne energije pa se nanaša na to, kar končni uporabniki dejansko porabijo. To povečanje porabe energije lahko v večini pripišemo gospodarskemu okrevanju. Vpliv rastočih cen energije na letno porabo leta 2021 še ni bil opazen, vendar lahko pričakujemo, da bo leta 2022 očitnejši. 

Predhodni podatki kažejo, da so v Evropi leta 2021 obnovljivi viri energije še vedno predstavljali 22 % celotne porabe energije, kar pomeni, da se je njihova sicer močna rast iz zadnjih let ustavila. To lahko pojasnimo z manjšimi prispevki vetrne in vodne energije leta 2021, ob hkratnem ponovnem povečanju porabe energije. 

Pred nami je ključno leto glede napredka pri doseganju ciljev za leto 2030 

V prihodnjih letih bo treba za dosego podnebne nevtralnosti na dolgi rok letno znatno zmanjševati emisije. Z evropskimi podnebnimi pravili so se povečali cilji glede zmanjšanja emisij do leta 2030, kar pomeni vsaj 55-odstotno zmanjšanje neto emisij toplogrednih plinov do leta 2030 v primerjavi z ravnmi iz leta 1990. Evropski parlament in države članice se trenutno pogajajo o celovitem svežnju „Pripravljeni na 55“, pri čemer upoštevajo tudi predlagani načrt REPowerEU iz leta 2022. 

Da bi do leta 2030 dosegli cilj glede 55-odstotnega zmanjšanja neto emisij toplogrednih plinov, bi bilo treba emisije na leto povprečno zmanjšati za 134 milijonov ton ogljikovega dioksida (MtCO2 eq) v primerjavi z ocenjenimi ravnmi iz leta 2021. To je več kot dvakratno povprečno letno zmanjšanje, ki je bilo doseženo med letoma 1990 in 2020. V vseh sektorjih si je treba bistveno bolj prizadevati za zmanjšanje emisij toplogrednih plinov. Poleg tega je treba odvzem ogljikovega dioksida povečati pri rabi zemljišč, spremembi rabe zemljišč in v gozdarstvu, pri čemer bi obrnili sedanji trend zmanjševanja ponora ogljika v EU. 

Hkrati bi bilo treba v naslednjih letih znatno zmanjšati porabo energije – glede na nov predlagani cilj za leto 2030 bo treba v okviru načrta REPowerEU v obdobju 2022–2030 več kot podvojiti letne prihranke energije. Enako velja za obnovljivo energijo: od leta 2005 se je delež obnovljive energije v evropski končni bruto porabi energije vsako leto povprečno povečal za 0,8 odstotne točke. Ta delež bi bilo treba do leta 2030 povečati na 2,5 odstotne točke na leto, da bi dosegli povečani cilj glede 45 % obnovljive energije, ki je predlagan v načrtu REPowerEU. 

Čeprav je bil na ravni držav članic že dosežen znaten napredek, trenutne politike in ukrepi ne zadostujejo za izpolnitev novih ambicioznih podnebnih in energetskih ciljev. Države članice bodo do sredine leta 2023 predložile osnutke posodobitev svojih nacionalnih energetskih in podnebnih načrtov. Tako bodo imele priložnost, da okrepijo svoje ukrepe in pripravijo načrte za obdobje do leta 2030, ki bodo odražali nova prizadevanja EU in cilj podnebne nevtralnosti. 

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Temelječi na podatkih

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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