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Trends en prognoses: beperkte stijging van de EU-emissies in tijden van postpandemisch herstel en energiecrisis

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Nieuws Gepubliceerd 10-01-2023 Laatst gewijzigd 03-08-2023
4 min read
De uitstoot van broeikasgassen en het energieverbruik zijn in 2021 gestegen, voornamelijk als gevolg van het postpandemische herstel in Europa, zo blijkt uit het meest recente verslag “Trends en prognoses”, dat vandaag door het Europees Milieuagentschap (EEA) is gepubliceerd. De meeste EU-lidstaten hebben de klimaat- en energiedoelstellingen van de EU voor 2020 gehaald en richten hun blik nu op klimaatneutraliteit, terwijl ze zich ook gedwongen zien de huidige crisis in de energievoorziening aan te pakken. Om de ambitieuzere klimaat- en energiedoelstellingen voor 2030 te halen, moet jaarlijks meer dan twee keer zoveel vooruitgang geboekt worden bij de uitrol van hernieuwbare energie en de vermindering van energieverbruik en broeikasgasemissies.

Energiebesparing en bevordering van hernieuwbare energiebronnen zijn cruciaal, niet alleen om de acute energiecrisis aan te pakken, maar ook om klimaatneutraliteit te bereiken.

Hans Bruyninckx, uitvoerend directeur van het EEA

Na een lange periode van dalende broeikasgasemissies in Europa heeft het economisch herstel na de COVID-19-lockdowns geleid tot een stijging van de emissies, met name in de sectoren vervoer, industrie en energievoorziening, zo blijkt uit gegevens die zijn gerapporteerd voor het EEA-verslag “Trends en prognoses in Europa 2022”. Door een dreigende energiecrisis en met name de hoge gasprijzen is de energievoorzieningssector weer gedeeltelijk overgeschakeld op koolstofintensievere brandstoffen, terwijl de sterke groei van hernieuwbare energie van de afgelopen jaren in 2021 afnam. Om deze ontwikkeling tegen te gaan, is het van cruciaal belang dat bij beslissingen over de energie-infrastructuur vandaag de dag rekening wordt gehouden met de toekomstige doelstelling van klimaatneutraliteit, om een lock-in-effect met betrekking tot koolstofintensieve technologie te voorkomen.

“De komende maanden en jaren zijn er dringend maatregelen nodig om ervoor te zorgen dat de EU-lidstaten ambitieuze emissiereductieplannen opstellen om de EU-klimaatdoelstellingen te halen. Hoewel deze winter kortetermijnmaatregelen moeten worden getroffen om de energievoorziening te verbeteren, mogen deze investeringen Europa niet nog jarenlang afhankelijk maken van fossiele brandstoffen. Energiebesparing en bevordering van hernieuwbare energiebronnen zijn cruciaal, niet alleen om de acute energiecrisis aan te pakken, maar ook om klimaatneutraliteit te bereiken”, aldus Hans Bruyninckx, uitvoerend directeur van het EEA.

Emissies stijgen weer, energieverbruik neemt toe

Volgens voorlopige gegevens van de EU-lidstaten is de uitstoot van broeikasgassen in 2021 met 5 % gestegen ten opzichte van 2020, de internationale luchtvaart inbegrepen. De emissies blijven echter ruim onder het niveau van 2019, d.w.z. van vóór de COVID-19-pandemie.

Volgens ramingen is in 2021 zowel het primaire als het eindenergieverbruik gestegen ten opzichte van 2020 (met respectievelijk 6 % en 5 %). Het primaire energieverbruik is de vraag naar energie, terwijl onder eindenergieverbruik de hoeveelheid energie wordt verstaan die de eindgebruikers daadwerkelijk verbruiken. Deze toename van het energieverbruik kan grotendeels worden toegeschreven aan het economische herstel. In 2021 was het effect van de stijgende energieprijzen op de jaarlijkse verbruikscijfers nog niet zichtbaar; naar verwachting zal dit effect in 2022 duidelijker uitvallen.

Voorlopige gegevens wijzen erop dat het totale aandeel van hernieuwbare energiebronnen in Europa in 2021 op 22 % van het energieverbruik bleef steken, waardoor de anders zo sterke groei van de afgelopen jaren in dat jaar uitbleef. Dit kan worden verklaard door een verminderde bijdrage van windenergie en waterkracht in 2021, naast een toename van het energieverbruik.

Kritisch jaar voor vooruitgang wat betreft de 2030-doelstellingen

De komende jaren zullen de emissies jaar op jaar aanzienlijk moeten worden verminderd om op lange termijn klimaatneutraliteit te bereiken. Met de Europese klimaatwet is de reductiedoelstelling voor 2030 verhoogd tot een netto-emissiereductie van broeikasgassen van ten minste 55 % in 2030 ten opzichte van het niveau van 1990. Momenteel onderhandelen het Europees Parlement en de lidstaten over het uitgebreide “Fit for 55”-pakket, waarbij ook rekening wordt gehouden met het voorgestelde RePowerEU-plan van 2022.

Om de doelstelling van 55 % netto-emissiereductie van broeikasgassen in 2030 te halen, zouden de emissies met gemiddeld 134 miljoen ton kooldioxide (MtCO2 eq) per jaar moeten dalen ten opzichte van de geraamde niveaus van 2021. Dit is meer dan het dubbele van de gemiddelde jaarlijkse vermindering die tussen 1990 en 2020 werd bereikt. Alle sectoren moeten hun inspanningen ter vermindering van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen aanzienlijk opvoeren. Bovendien moet de koolstofvastlegging door landgebruik, verandering in landgebruik, en bosbouw worden opgevoerd, zodat de huidige trend van een krimpende koolstofput in de EU wordt omgebogen.

Tegelijkertijd moet het energieverbruik de komende jaren aanzienlijk dalen: de onlangs voorgestelde doelstelling voor 2030 in het kader van het REPowerEU-plan vereist meer dan een verdubbeling van de jaarlijkse energiebesparingen in de periode 2022-2030. Hetzelfde geldt voor hernieuwbare energiebronnen. Sinds 2005 is het aandeel hernieuwbare energie in het bruto-eindverbruik van energie in Europa jaarlijks met gemiddeld 0,8 procentpunt gestegen. Dit aandeel moet tegen 2030 stijgen tot 2,5 procentpunten per jaar om het in REPowerEU voorgestelde verhoogde streefcijfer van 45 % hernieuwbare energie te halen.

Op het niveau van de lidstaten is weliswaar reeds aanzienlijke vooruitgang geboekt, maar het huidige beleid en de bestaande maatregelen volstaan niet om de nieuwe ambitieuze klimaat- en energiedoelstellingen te verwezenlijken. Medio 2023 zullen de lidstaten voorstellen voor de actualisering van hun nationale energie- en klimaatplannen indienen. Zo kunnen zij hun maatregelen intensiveren en voor de periode tot 2030 plannen ontwikkelen die de nieuwe EU-ambities en de doelstelling van klimaatneutraliteit weerspiegelen.

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Gebaseerd op data

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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