European Union flag

While non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission reductions from the European Union agriculture sector are covered by national targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), they only fell by 5% between 2005 and 2022. Estimates indicate that these emissions fell by a further 2% between 2022 and 2023. Member States project that their cumulative agricultural emissions would increase by 2030 based on current policies and measures alone. The total reduction of agricultural emissions by 2030 would reach a level 7% below 2005 levels with the implementation of additional, currently planned measures. This highlights the need for further action to reduce non-CO2 emissions in the agriculture sector.

Figure 1. EU agricultural emissions by source and projected emissions

The European Climate Law sets out the EU’s commitment to shift to a climate neutral economy by 2050, with an intermediate target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030. Agricultural GHG emissions are covered by the EU Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), which sets annual targets for each Member State for the period 2021-2030. Emissions from transport, buildings and waste are also included in national ESR targets, which collectively aim to reduce total EU emissions from the sectors covered by 40%, compared with 2005 levels.

Methane (CH4) emissions from enteric fermentation and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from soils are responsible for 49% and 30% of total agricultural GHG emissions respectively. CH4 from manure management is the third most important source of emissions, accounting for about 17%. The remaining sources make relatively small contributions, accounting for less than 5% of agricultural GHG emissions in total.

Between 2005 and 2022, the EU’s agricultural GHG emissions had an overall decreasing trend of 5%, with a further 2% reduction estimated between 2022 and 2023. Together, Member States project that their agricultural emissions would increase from current levels until 2030 without the introduction of further policies and measures. This would bring total EU agricultural emissions to a 2030 level that is 4% below the 2005 baseline. If additional measures currently planned by Member States are implemented, the total reduction is projected to reach 7% below 2005 levels.

To meet their overall national Effort Sharing targets, Member States will have to achieve much greater reductions in other sectors or accelerate agricultural emission reductions. A European Commission impact assessment highlights the challenges in further reducing non-CO2 GHG emissions from agriculture .

Figure 2. Agricultural emissions and projected emissions by EU Member State

Although agricultural GHG emissions changed very little at EU level between 2005 and 2022, trends varied widely among Member States. Emissions increased in 11 and decreased in 16 Member States. During this time period, emissions fell by more than 10% in Croatia, France, Greece, Italy, Romania and Slovakia, while they grew by more than 10% in Bulgaria, Estonia, Ireland and Latvia.

Many Member States anticipate a continuation of past trends in their national projections, based on current policies. The planned implementation of additional measures is expected to have a strong impact on agricultural emissions in Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovakia. These Member States anticipate a reduction of 10% or more by 2030 compared to projections based on only existing measures.

Although emissions decreased in Greece, Romania and Slovakia between 2005 and 2022, these countries predict that emissions will increase through 2030 if additional measures aren't introduced. Eleven Member States have not reported any planned additional measures to reduce agricultural emissions beyond their current measures.