Greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry in Europe

The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector plays a key role in achieving the EU’s goal of net zero emissions by 2050. LULUCF activities removed net 198 million tonnes of CO₂equivalent (MtCO₂e) from the atmosphere in 2023, equal to 6% of the EU’s annual greenhouse gas emissions. Removals are estimated to have increased to 212MtCO₂e in 2024. The LULUCF Regulation set an EU-level net removal target of 310MtCO₂e by 2030. Based on Member States’ projections, the current implemented and planned measures will not suffice to meet the target, requiring renewed efforts and further policies to enhance Europe’s carbon sink.

Figure 1. EU emissions and removals of the LULUCF sector by main land use category

The European Union aims to be climate neutral by 2050, as set out in the European Climate Law. Achieving this depends both on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing CO₂ removals from the atmosphere. The land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector has the potential to contribute by removing CO₂ from the atmosphere.

The sets an EU-level net removal target of 310MtCO₂e by 2030, calculated as a reduction of 42MtCO₂e compared to the 2016-2018 EU average, with national targets for each Member State. In 2023, the EU’s LULUCF sector accounted for the net removal of 198MtCO₂e, equal to 6% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions and is estimated to have accounted for -212MtCO₂e in 2024. Overall, removals have decreased in the past 10 years, mainly as a result of climate change and natural disturbances impacts on forests, increased harvest of wood as well as lower sequestration of carbon by ageing forests.

Natural disturbances (e.g. wind throws, forest fires, droughts) cause inter-annual variations, and their increasing frequency negatively affects long-term trends. A slower rate of net forest area gain has also contributed to the reduction in removals. Cropland, grassland, wetland and settlements are sources of LULUCF emissions at EU level. Soils containing large proportions of organic matter (mainly peat) account for a significant share of these emissions, although such “organic soils” are only found in wetter and colder parts of Europe.

The most recent Member State projections suggest that net removals will decline at EU level from an average of 307MtCO₂e per year in 1990-2022 to a level between 160 and 201MtCO₂e in 2023-2050, depending on the scenario. The projections show that for 2030, current policies and measures would deliver net removals of 183MtCO₂e. A removal level of 233MtCO₂e by 2030 appears within reach if all Member States' planned additional measures are swiftly implemented. This means at present, the EU 2030 target of 310MtCO₂e is not on track. The target will be difficult to achieve without significantly more ambitious removals measures in the coming years, the effects of which will become more evident in the long term.

Figure 2. Comparison of cumulative historical and projected LULUCF emissions and removals per Member State

Among the EU Member States, Austria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Malta and Netherlands experienced positive emissions from LULUCF in 2023. This accounts for 25% of all the EU LULUCF emissions in that year. The remaining Member States contributed with net removals, contributing to approximately 75% of the EU’s LULUCF sink.

Looking towards 2050, seven Member States (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Malta and Netherlands) expect to have positive LULUCF emissions (20% of EU LULUCF). The remaining Member States all foresee contributing to the carbon sink (80% of EU LULUCF).

Across Europe, Member States are currently applying the LULUCF regulation’s requirements to progressively increase the accuracy of LULUCF inventories. Such efforts, while beneficial, may introduce variability in historical data for the Member States.

Supporting information

Definition

Land use categories:

• Forest land: land areas covered by forests and woody vegetation as defined by the national forest definition. Forest land areas can be temporarily without trees if harvest or storms occurred and if trees will re-grow on this land area.

• Cropland: cropped land including orchards, vineyards or agro-forestry systems if the woody vegetation falls below the thresholds of the national forest definition.

• Grassland: rangelands, pastures or grassland. Woody vegetation on grassland is included if the woody vegetation falls below the thresholds of the national forest definition.

• Wetlands: areas covered or saturated by water for all or part of the year such as peatlands or water reservoirs.

• Settlements: areas with human settlements or infrastructure.

• Other lands: bare soil, rock, ice and land that does not fall in the other categories above.

CO₂equivalent:

There are three greenhouse gases relevant for the LULUCF sector: carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). CO₂equivalent is a common unit that allows these different gases to be added up based on their warming potential. Following the IPCC 5^th Assessment report and as agreed for the Paris Agreement, 1 tonne CH₄ = 28 tonne CO₂equivalent, 1 tonne N₂O = 265 tonne CO₂equivalent and 1 tonne CO₂ = 1 tonne CO₂equivalent.

Organic soils and mineral soils:

Organic soils are soils with a high carbon content while the rest is mineral soils. In the EU only 8% of the soils are organic soils according to the GHG inventories. Due to the higher carbon content, organic soils have generally higher emissions than mineral soils.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Historical and projected emissions estimates from all 27 EU Member States and aggregated for the EU-27 were obtained from the publicly available databases published by the EEA based on official submissions by the Member States.

For individual Member State emissions and removals, the cumulative 10-year LULUCF total for 2013-2022 and the projected 10-year LULUCF total for 2023-2032 for the ‘with existing measures’ scenario are shown.

The latest available version of the historical inventory and projected emissions were used to compile the indicator, but it should be noted that this may introduce slight inconsistencies between the historical and projected emissions, if projections for some Member States are not based on the latest inventory data submitted and recalculations have been made.

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified.

Policy/environmental relevance

This indicator is a headline indicator for monitoring progress towards the 8^th Environment Action Programme (8^th EAP). It contributes mainly to monitoring aspects of the 8^th EAP priority objective Article 2a. that shall be met by 2030: ‘swift and predictable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and, at the same time, enhancement of removals by natural sinks in the Union to attain the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target as laid down in , in line with the Union’s climate and environment objectives, whilst ensuring a just transition that leaves no one behind;’ (EU, 2022). For the purposes of the 8^th EAP monitoring framework, this indicator assesses specifically whether the EU will ‘increase net GHG removals by carbon sinks from the LULUCF sector to -310 million tonnes CO₂ equivalent by 2030’ (EC, 2022).

Accuracy and uncertaintiesData sources and providers

Metadata

DPSIRTopicsTagsTemporal coverageGeographic coverage

TypologyUN SDGsUnit of measureFrequency of dissemination

References and footnotes

<div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 1.35; "> <div class="csl-entry">EU, 2023, Regulation (EU) 2023/839 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 April 2023 amending Regulation (EU) 2018/841 as regards the scope, simplifying the reporting and compliance rules, and setting out the targets of the Member States for 2030, and Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 as regards improvement in monitoring, reporting, tracking of progress and review</div> </div>
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<div class="csl-bib-body" style="line-height: 1.35; "> <div class="csl-entry">EU, 2021, Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 June 2021 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality and amending Regulations (EC) No 401/2009 and (EU) 2018/1999 (‘European Climate Law’), OJ L 243, 9.7.2021, p. 1-17., Regulation (EU) 2021/1119</div> </div>
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