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Tendenser og fremskrivninger: begrænset stigning i EU-emissioner under genopretningen efter pandemi og energikrise

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Nyheder Udgivet 14/12 2022 Sidst ændret 03/08 2023
4 min read
Drivhusgasemissionerne og energiforbruget steg i 2021, hovedsagelig på grund af Europas genopretning efter pandemien, ifølge den seneste rapport "Trends and Projections", som Det Europæiske Miljøagentur (EEA) har offentliggjort i dag. De fleste EU-medlemsstater nåede EU's klima- og energimål for 2020 og vender nu blikket mod klimaneutralitet, samtidig med at de også tackler den nuværende energiforsyningskrise. At nå de mere ambitiøse klima- og energimål for 2030 vil kræve mere end en fordobling af de årlige fremskridt med hensyn til udrulningen af vedvarende energi, og reduktionen af energiforbruget og drivhusgasemissionerne.

Energibesparelser og styrkelse af vedvarende energikilder er afgørende, ikke blot for at tackle den umiddelbare energikrise, men også for at opnå klimaneutralitet.

Hans Bruyninckx, administrerende direktør for EEA

Efter en lang periode med faldende drivhusgasemissioner i Europa har den økonomiske genopretning efter covid-19 nedlukningerne ført til en stigning i emissionerne, navnlig i transport-, industri- og energiforsyningssektorerne. Dette fremgår af de indberettede data til EEA's rapport "Trends and Projections in Europe 2022". Med en truende energikrise og navnlig en høj gaspris skete der i energiforsyningssektoren et delvist skift til mere kulstofintensive energibrændstoffer, mens den kraftige vækst i vedvarende energi de seneste år faldt i 2021. For at imødegå denne udvikling er det afgørende, at beslutninger om energiinfrastruktur i dag tager hensyn til fremtidens mål om klimaneutralitet for at undgå kulstofafhængighed. 

"I de kommende måneder og år er der behov for en kritisk indsats for at sikre, at EU's medlemsstater kan udarbejde ambitiøse emissionsreduktionsplaner og dermed opfylde EU's klimamål. Der er behov for kortsigtede foranstaltninger for at øge energiforsyningen denne vinter, men disse investeringer bør ikke fastlåse Europa i afhængighed af fossile brændstoffer i mange år fremad. Energibesparelser og styrkelse af vedvarende energikilder er afgørende, ikke blot for at tackle den umiddelbare energikrise, men også for at opnå klimaneutralitet", udtalte Hans Bruyninckx, administrerende direktør for EEA. 

Emissionsstigning som følge af det øgede energiforbrug 

Ifølge de foreløbige data, som EU-medlemsstaterne har indberettet, steg drivhusgasemissionerne med 5 % fra 2020 til 2021, herunder den internationale luftfart. Emissionerne ligger dog fortsat et godt stykke under niveauet før covid-19 i 2019. 

Det skønnes, at energiforbruget steg i 2021 i både primærenergiforbruget og det endelige energiforbrug henholdsvis 6 % og 5 % i forhold til 2020. Primærenergiforbruget måler energiefterspørgslen, mens det endelige energiforbrug henviser til, hvad slutbrugerne rent faktisk bruger. Denne stigning i energiforbruget kan i vid udstrækning tilskrives den økonomiske genopretning. I 2021 var virkningen af de stigende energipriser på de årlige forbrugstal endnu ikke synlig, men den kan forventes at være mere tydelig i 2022. 

Foreløbige data tyder på, at den samlede andel af vedvarende energikilder i Europa fortsat lå på 22 % af energiforbruget i 2021, hvilket sætter den ellers kraftige vækst i de seneste år i bero. Dette kan forklares ved, at andelen af vindenergi og vandkraft var mindre i 2021, samtidig med at energiforbruget igen steg. 

Et afgørende år forude med hensyn til fremskridtene mod 2030-målene 

I de kommende år er det nødvendigt, at de betydelige emissionsreduktioner fastholdes fra år til år for at opnå klimaneutralitet på lang sigt. Med den europæiske klimalov blev 2030-reduktionsmålet øget til en nettoreduktion af drivhusgasemissionerne på mindst 55 % inden 2030 i forhold til 1990-niveauet. På nuværende tidspunkt forhandler Europa-Parlamentet og medlemsstaterne om den omfattende Fit for 55-pakke, samtidig med at der tages hensyn til den foreslåede RePowerEU-plan fra 2022. 

For at nå 2030-målet om nettodrivhusgasemissioner på 55 % vil emissionerne skulle falde med 134 mio. ton kuldioxid (mio. ton CO2-ækvivalenter) om året i gennemsnit i forhold til de anslåede niveauer i 2021. Dette er mere end dobbelt så meget som den gennemsnitlige årlige reduktion, der blev opnået mellem 1990 og 2020. Alle sektorerne er nødt til at styrke deres indsats betydeligt for at mindske drivhusgasemissionerne. Desuden skal der fjernes mere CO2 gennem arealanvendelse, arealanvendelsesændringer og skovbrug, så den nuværende tendens med faldende CO2-dræn i EU vendes. 

Samtidig bør energiforbruget mindskes betydeligt i de kommende år – det nyligt foreslåede 2030-mål i forbindelse med REPowerEU kræver, at de årlige energibesparelser mere end fordobles i perioden 2022-2030. Det samme gælder vedvarende energier: Siden 2005 er andelen af vedvarende energi i Europas endelige bruttoenergiforbrug steget med gennemsnitligt 0,8 procentpoint om året. Dette tal bør være oppe på 2,5 procentpoint om året frem til 2030 for at nå det forhøjede mål på 45 % for vedvarende energi, der foreslås i REPowerEU. 

Selv om der allerede er gjort betydelige fremskridt på medlemsstatsniveau, er de nuværende politikker og foranstaltninger ikke tilstrækkelige til at nå de nye ambitiøse klima- og energimål. Senest medio 2023 vil medlemsstaterne fremlægge udkast til opdateringer af deres nationale energi- og klimaplaner. Dette vil give dem mulighed for at intensivere deres foranstaltninger og udarbejde planer for perioden frem til 2030, der afspejler EU's nye ambitioner og målet om klimaneutralitet. 

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Baseret på data

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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