DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change

Global and European temperature This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades — even centuries at some locations — and a dense network of stations across the globe, especially in Europe, provides regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. Global average annual temperature deviations (anomalies) are discussed relative to a ‘pre-industrial’ period between 1850 and 1899 (the beginning of instrumental temperature records). During this time, anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) are considered to have had a relatively small influence on the climate compared with natural influences. However, it should be noted that owing to earlier changes in the climate due to internal and forced natural variability, there was not one single pre-industrial climate and it is not clear that there is a rigorous scientific definition of the term ‘pre-industrial climate’. Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system that can have an impact on human activities, including sea level, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and food productivity, and infectious diseases. In addition to the global average target, seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example, to understand the risks that the current climate poses to human and natural systems, and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Heating and cooling degree days This indicator looks at the following: Time series of population-weighted heating and cooling degree days averaged over Europe; Observed trends in heating and cooling degree days; Projected trends in heating and cooling degree days.

Arctic and Baltic sea ice Trend in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea Projected changes in Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent

Global and European temperature This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades — even centuries at some locations — and a dense network of stations across the globe, especially in Europe, provides regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. Global average annual temperature deviations (anomalies) are discussed relative to a ‘pre-industrial’ period between 1850 and 1899 (the beginning of instrumental temperature records). During this time, anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) are considered to have had a relatively small influence on the climate compared with natural influences. However, it should be noted that owing to earlier changes in the climate due to internal and forced natural variability, there was not one single pre-industrial climate and it is not clear that there is a rigorous scientific definition of the term ‘pre-industrial climate’. Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system that can have an impact on human activities, including sea level, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and food productivity, and infectious diseases. In addition to the global average target, seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example, to understand the risks that the current climate poses to human and natural systems, and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Global and European sea level This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The indicator also addresses changes in extreme sea level along the European coast. The following aspects of sea level rise are included: Observed change in global mean sea level, based on two reconstructions from tide gauge measurements (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Spatial trends in absolute sea level across European seas, based on satellite measurements (since 1993) Spatial trends in relative sea level across European seas, based on European tide gauge stations with long time series (since 1970) Projected change in global sea level for different forcing scenarios, including contributions from different sources Projected change in relative sea level across European seas Projected change in the frequency of flooding events along European coasts

Global and European temperature This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades — even centuries at some locations — and a dense network of stations across the globe, especially in Europe, provides regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. Global average annual temperature deviations (anomalies) are discussed relative to a ‘pre-industrial’ period between 1850 and 1899 (the beginning of instrumental temperature records). During this time, anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) are considered to have had a relatively small influence on the climate compared with natural influences. However, it should be noted that owing to earlier changes in the climate due to internal and forced natural variability, there was not one single pre-industrial climate and it is not clear that there is a rigorous scientific definition of the term ‘pre-industrial climate’. Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system that can have an impact on human activities, including sea level, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and food productivity, and infectious diseases. In addition to the global average target, seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example, to understand the risks that current climate poses to human and natural systems and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Economic losses from climate-related extremes in Europe This indicator considers the number of fatalities, and the overall and insured economic losses from climate-related disasters.

Hail Hail is commonly classified according to diameter of the hailstones; for example, hail >=2cm diameter. Hailstorm intensity scale classifies hail on a scale from H0, being hard hail with diameter 5 mm causing no damage to H10, being super hailstorms with diameter >100 mm and causing extensive structural damage with risk of severe or fatal injuries to people. Hail is here defined with the potential hail index (PHI), which quantifies the atmospheric potential for hailstorms and can be derived from atmospheric numerical models.

Wind storms Projected changes in extreme wind speed (98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) based on GCM and RCM ensemble

Heavy precipitation Heavy precipitation is defined as the maximum annual five-day consecutive precipitation. Trends are calculated for the period between 1960 and 2015. Projected changes in heavy precipitation are defined as changes in the 95th percentile of daily precipitation (only days with precipitation >1 mm/day are considered). Changes between two periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 are calculated by using a multi-model ensemble forced by RCP8.5.

Mean precipitation Observed trends in annual and summer precipitation across Europe 1960-2015 Projected changes in mean annual and summer precipitation (%) in the period 2071–2100 compared with the baseline period 1971–2000 for the forcing scenario RCP8.5. Model simulations are based on the multi-model ensemble average of many different RCM simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative.

Heating and cooling degree days Time series of population-weighted heating and cooling degree days averaged over Europe Trend in heating and cooling degree days

Meteorological and hydrological droughts Observed trends in frequency and severity of meteorological droughts Model-based estimate of past change in summer low flows Projected change in the frequency of meteorological droughts for different periods and scenarios Projected change in 20-year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate change and changes in water use

Crop water demand Trend in crop water deficit for grain maize during the growing period Projected change in the crop water deficit for grain maize during the growing period

Water-limited crop yield Projected changes in water-limited yield of winter wheat Projected changes in water-limited crop yield Probability of the occurrence of adverse agroclimatic conditions for wheat under baseline and projected climate

Agrophenology Trend in flowering date for winter wheat

Growing season for agricultural crops Rate of change in the number of frost-free days per year

Vector-borne diseases Current distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks Current distribution of Aedes albopictus Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Current distribution of West Nile virus infections Projected change in the climatic suitability for chikungunya transmission Projected distribution of West Nile Virus infections

Extreme temperatures and health Associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities

Floods and health Deaths related to flooding

Forest fires Burnt area in five southern European countries Current state of forest fire danger Projected state of forest fire danger Past trend of forest fire danger Projected changes in forest fire danger

Forest composition and distribution Projected change in climatic suitability for broadleaf and needleleaf trees

Distribution shifts of plant and animal species Trend in thermophilic species in bird and butterfly communities Projected change in climatically suitable areas for bumblebees

Phenology of plant and animal species Trends in spring phenology

Soil moisture Past trends: modelled trend in soil moisture over a depth of one metre Projections: change in the Palmer Drought Severity Index

Water temperature Observed trends in water temperature of large European rivers and lakes

River floods Number of flood phenomena with 'very high' severity Projected change in river floods with a return period of 100 years

River flow Model-based estimate of past change in annual river flows Projected change in seasonal river flow for 12 rivers

Ocean acidification Decline in ocean acidity measured at the Aloha station Projected change in global ocean surface acidity

Sea surface temperature Trend in average sea surface temperature anomaly in the global ocean and in Europe’s regional seas

Distribution shifts of marine species Ratio of Calanus species in the Greater North Sea Observed change in the distribution of demersal fish in response to the observed rise in sea surface temperature

Ocean heat content Observed change in global ocean heat content at different depths

Snow cover Trend in spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe Trend in March snow mass in Europe (excluding mountain areas) Projected change in Northern hemisphere spring snow cover extent

Glaciers Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers Projected changes in the volume of all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the European glaciated regions

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Cumulative ice mass loss and sea-level equivalent from Greenland

Arctic and Baltic sea ice Trend in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea Projected changes in Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent

Water- and food-borne diseases Time series of vibriosis infections in the Baltic Sea region Current and projected risk of vibriosis infections in the Baltic Sea region

Ocean oxygen content Distribution of oxygen-depleted ‘dead zones’ in European seas Development of oxygen depletion in the Baltic Sea over time

Global and European sea level This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Furthermore, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas. The indicator also presents the contributions to past and future global sea level rise from different sources. Finally, the indicator presents information on observed and projected changes in extreme sea level along European coasts. However, due to insufficient data availability this information cannot be presented by means of figures or maps.

Global and European temperature This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades - even centuries at some locations - and a dense network of stations across the globe, especially in Europe, provides regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. Global average annual temperature deviations, ‘anomalies’, are discussed relative to a ‘pre-industrial’ period between 1850 and 1899 (the beginning of instrumental temperature records). During this time, anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) are considered to have a relatively small influence on the climate compared to natural influences. However, it should be noted that owing to earlier changes in the climate due to internal and forced natural variability, there was not one single pre-industrial climate and it is not clear that there is a rigorous scientific definition of the term ‘pre-industrial climate’. Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system that can have an impact on human activities, including sea level, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and food productivity, and infectious diseases. In addition to the global average target, seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example, to understand the risks that current climate poses to human and natural systems and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Economic losses from climate-related extremes This indicator considers the number of natural disasters and the overall and insured losses from natural disasters.

Air pollution due to ozone: health impacts and effects of climate change The indicator presents an overview of ozone concentrations over Europe in recent years, their effects on human health, and an estimate of the changes in these concentrations due to the effect of climate change. It presents the following: The annual mean of the maximum daily eight hour mean ozone concentrations by station type. The modelled projected change, due to climate change, in summertime surface ozone concentrations over Europe in the middle and at the end of the 21 st century. The relative effect of climate change on ozone concentrations in the middle of the 21 st century, compared to other contributions. A selection of meteorological parameters that might increase under future climate change and their impact on ozone levels.

Global and European temperatures This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades or even centuries at some locations and a dense network of stations across the globe, and especially in Europe, provide regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. This indicator provides guidance for the following policy-relevant questions: Will the global average temperature increase stay within the UNFCCC policy target of 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels? Will the rate of global average temperature increase stay below the indicative proposed target of 0.2°C increase per decade? Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system which can impact on human activities, such as sea level rise, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and crop productivity and vector-borne diseases. In consideration with the target of limiting the rise in global average temperature, understanding seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example to manage the risks that current climate poses to human and natural systems and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Storms Projected changes in extreme wind speed (98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) based on GCM and RCM ensemble

Global and European sea-level rise This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea-level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea-level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea-level rise in Europe; second, relative sea-level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Furthermore, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas. The indidator also presents the contributions to past and future global sea level rise from different sources. Finally, the indicator presents information on observed and projected changes in extreme sea level along European coasts. However, due to insufficient data availability this information cannot be presented by means of figures or maps.

Precipitation extremes Trends in consecutive wet days and consecutive dry days Projected changes in heavy precipitation in summer and winter

Global and European sea-level rise This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea-level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea-level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea-level rise in Europe; second, relative sea-level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) In addition, this indicator informs about the contributions from various sources to the observed global sea level rise (since 1901). Finally, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas.

River flow This indicator shows the trends in monthly stream flow over more than 4 decades for locations across Europe. The indicator also shows the projected change in annual and seasonal river flow in Europe for 2071-2100 (SRES A1B scenario) compared to 1961-1990. For some selected locations, the projected change in daily average river flow for 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990 is shown.

Snow cover Trend in spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe Trend in March snow mass in Europe (excluding mountain areas) Projected change in Northern hemisphere spring snow cover extent

Greenland ice sheet Cumulative ice mass loss and sea-level equivalent from Greenland Yearly cumulated melt area of Greenland ice sheet

Forest growth Forest area Volume of forest biomass

Agrophenology Observed change in flowering date for winter wheat Projected change in dates of flowering and maturation for winter wheat

Ocean heat content Observed change in global ocean heat content

Vector-borne diseases Distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi in questing I. ricinus ticks in Europe Change in distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti in Europe Projected change in climatic conditions for Chikungunya transmission

Extreme temperatures and health Daily mortality rates in 15 European cities by apparent temperature in summer time

Floods and health Number of people affected by flooding per million population in the WHO European Region

Air pollution by ozone and health Annual mean ozone concentrations by station type Modelled change in tropospheric ozone concentrations over Europe Selection of meteorological parameters that might increase under future climate change and their impact on ozone levels

Damages from weather and climate-related events Number of natural disasters Overall and insured losses from natural disasters

Heating degree days Trend in heating degree days in the EU-27

Forest fires Burnt area in five southern European countries State and trend of fire danger Projected changes in fire danger

Irrigation water requirement Rate of change of the meteorological water balance Projected change in water availability for irrigation in the Mediterranean region

Water-limited crop productivity Projected changes in effective solar radiation Projected changes in water-limited crop yield Projected change in water-limited wheat production

Growing season for agricultural crops Change in the number of frost-free days per year

Soil moisture Global surface soil moisture content based on remote sensing data

Soil erosion Estimated soil erosion by water in Europe Estimated number of days for wind erosion

Soil organic carbon Variations in topsoil organic carbon content across Europe

Distribution of marine species Calanus ratio in the North Sea Annual mean number of Calanus per sample

Phenology of marine species Decapoda larvae abundance and phenology in the central North Sea

Sea surface temperature Annual average sea surface temperature anomaly in the global ocean and in different European seas Mean annual sea surface temperature trend in European seas

Ocean acidification Decline in ocean acidity

Species interactions Projected spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly and its host plants

Distribution and abundance of animal species Observed latitudinal shifts of four species groups over 25 years in Britain Temporal trend of bird and butterfly community temperature index across Europe Projected impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles and amphibians Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell Changes in mammalian species richness

Water temperature Water temperatures in five selected European rivers and lakes in the 20th century

Distribution of plant species Expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios

Animal phenology Changes in egg-laying dates of the pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca)

Plant and fungi phenology Trends in spring phenology

Lake and river ice cover Observed change in duration of lake and river ice cover a) Danube River, at Budapest, 1876–2011 and b) Lake Kallavesi, Finland, 1833–2011.

River flow drought Water scarcity and drought events in Europe Projected change in minimum river flow with return period of 20 years

River floods Occurrence of major floods in Europe Projected change in river floods with a return period of 100 years

River flow Trends in monthly stream flow Projected change in average annual and seasonal river flow Projected change in daily average river flow

Storm surges Surge height

Global and European sea-level rise This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and (to a limited extent) future sea-level rise globally and in Europe. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea-level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea-level rise in Europe; seconed, relative sea-level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) In addition, this indicator informs about the contributions from various sources to the observed global sea level rise (since 1972). Finally, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas.

Arctic and Baltic Sea ice Trend in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September Maximum ice cover extent in the Baltic Sea Projected changes in Nothern Hemisphere sea ice extent

Permafrost Observed permafrost temperatures from selected boreholes in European mountains Comparison of active layer thickness from boreholes in the Alps, Norway and Svalbard Projected change in Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost area

Glaciers Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers Projected changes in the volume of all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the European glaciated regions

Snow cover Trend in autumn, winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere Trend in March snow mass in Europe (excluding mountain areas) Projected changes in annual snowfall days

Storms Trends in the extreme wind speeds (95th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) Projected changes in extreme wind speed (98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) based on GCM and RCM ensemble

Mean precipitation Trends in annual precipitation across Europe Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation

Precipitation extremes Trends in consecutive wet days and consecutive dry days Projected changes in 20-year maximum precipitation in summer and winter

Greenland ice sheet Estimated changes of the ice mass in Greenland Yearly cumulated melt area of Greenland ice sheet

Global and European temperature This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades or even centuries at some locations and a dense network of stations across the globe, and especially in Europe, provide regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. This indicator provides guidance for the following policy-relevant questions: Will the global average temperature increase stay within the UNFCCC policy target of 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels? Will the rate of global average temperature increase stay below the indicative proposed target of 0.2°C increase per decade? Global average annual temperature deviations, ‘anomalies’, are discussed relative to a ‘pre-industrial’ period between 1850 and 1899 (beginning of instrumental temperature records). During this time, anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) are considered to have a relatively small influence on climate compared to natural influences. However it should be noted that owing to earlier changes in the climate due to internal and forced natural variability there was not one single pre-industrial climate and it is not clear that there is a rigorous scientific definition of the term ‘pre-industrial climate’. Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system which can impact on human activities, including sea level, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and food productivity and infectious diseases. In addition to the global average target, seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example to understand the risks that current climate poses to human and natural systems and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Ocean acidification This indicator illustrates the global mean average rate of ocean acidification, quantified by decreases in pH, which is a measure of acidity defined here as the hydrogen ion concentration. A decrease in pH value corresponds to an increase in acidity. The observed decrease in ocean pH resulting from increasing concentrations of CO 2 is an important indicator of global change. This indicator provides information on: trends in ocean acidity measured at the Aloha station; the projected change in global ocean surface acidity; yearly mean surface sea water pH levels reported on a global scale based on information from CMEMS.

BISE	Biodiversity Information System for Europe
Climate-ADAPT	Climate Adaptation Platform
Copernicus In Situ	Copernicus in situ component
Copernicus Land	Copernicus land monitoring

European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register	E-PRTR
Information Platform for Chemical Monitoring	IPCHEM
Marine Water Information System for Europe	WISE-Marine
Fresh Water Information System for Europe	WISE-FreshWater

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DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change

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DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change

Related content

Related indicators

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The EEA also contributes to

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