Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• No published assessments

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Shifts in the distribution of animal species can have consequences for agriculture (livestock and crops), human health, and for biodiversity and its conservation and ecosystems functions and services. The distribution of many animal species will be particularly affected by climate change if habitat fragmentation impedes their movement to more suitable climatic conditions. Northward and uphill movements are taking place two to three times faster than reported earlier. An increased extinction risk compared to previous findings is predicted, and is supported by observed responses to climate change. A ‘biotic homogenisation’ of specific ecological communities of European flora and fauna (i.e. losing regional uniqueness and characteristics) is projected.

Scientific references

• No rationale references available

Indicator definition

• Observed latitudinal shifts of four species groups over 25 years in Britain

• Temporal trend of bird and butterfly community temperature index across Europe

• Projected impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles and amphibians

• Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell
• Changes in mammalian species richness

Units

• km moved northwards
• Change in the community temperature index
• % of stable species
• Area
• % change in species richness

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.

The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

Related policy documents

• Climate-ADAPT: Adaptation in EU policy sectors
  Overview of EU sector policies in which mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change is ongoing or explored
• Climate-ADAPT: Country profiles
  Overview of activities of EEA member countries in preparing, developing and implementing adaptation strategies
• DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change
  Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives in the future. This web portal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission.
• EU Adaptation Strategy Package
  In April 2013, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Species distribution observations and models (also known as habitat models, niche models or envelope models) have been used to calculate the indicator.

Methodology for gap filling

Not applicable

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Data specifications

EEA data references

• No datasets have been specified here.

External data references

• Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming
• Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale
• Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals
• Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe
• Climatic Risk Atlas of European Butterflies

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

Species distribution models (also known as habitat models, niche models or envelope models) suffer from a variety of limitations because species are currently not in equilibrium with climate, and because species dispersal and biotic interactions are largely ignored. Furthermore, climate change projections for Europe include climate conditions (in particular in southern Europe) for which no analogue climate was available for the model calibration. Especially the latter problem is evident for projections for southern Europe since projections of species distribution models lack information from climates south of the Mediterranean. Therefore, the uncertainty in the Mediterranean region is much higher and projected declines might result from a lack of data from climatic situations not included in the model.

Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified