Climate change adaptation

False-colour view of total ozone over the North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) poles. The purple and blue colours indicate the lowest ozone presence, while yellow and red indicate higher ozone presence. Ozone concentration is commonly measured in Dobson Units. One Dobson Unit is the number of molecules of ozone that would be required to create a layer of pure ozone 0.01 millimetres thick at a temperature of 0 degrees Celsius and a pressure of 1 atmosphere.

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The top maps show the median of the number of heat waves in a multi-model ensemble of the near future (2020–2052) and the latter half of the century (2068–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and the lower maps are for the same time periods but under RCP8.5

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According to different observational records of global average annual near-surface (land and ocean) temperature, the last decade (2009–2018) was 0.91 °C to 0.96 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Of the 18 warmest years on record, 17 have occurred since 2000. The year 2018 was the world’s fourth warmest year on record after the years 2016, 2015 and 2017.  The average annual temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2009–2018) was between 1.6 °C and 1.7 °C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. In Europe, 2018 was among three warmest years on record.  Climate models project further increases in global average temperature over the 21st century (for the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005) of between 0.3 °C and 1.7 °C for the lowest emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) and between 2.6 °C and 4.8 °C for the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5). All UNFCCC member countries have agreed on the long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels and have agreed to aim to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. For the three highest of the four RCPs, the global average temperature increase is projected to exceed 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels by 2050. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to increase by the end of this century (2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000) in the range of 1.0 °C to 4.5 °C under RCP4.5, and 2.5 °C to 5.5 °C under RCP8.5, which is more than the projected global average increase. The strongest warming is projected across north-eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter and southern Europe in summer. The number of warm days (those exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of a baseline period) have doubled between 1960 and 2018 across the European land area. Europe has experienced several extreme heat waves since 2000 (2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018). Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), extreme heat waves as strong as these or even stronger are projected to occur as often as every two years in the second half of the 21st century. In southern Europe, they are projected to be particularly strong.

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The annual population-weighted heating degree days (HDD) decreased by 6 % between the periods 1950–1980 and 1981–2017; the decrease during the period 1981–2017 was on average 6.5 HDDs per year. The largest decrease occurred in northern Europe and possibly in Italy. The annual population-weighted cooling degree days (CDD) increased by 33 % between the periods 1950–1980 and 1981–2017; the increase during the period 1981–2017 was on average 0.9 HDDs per year. The largest increase occurred in southern Europe. The observed trend in HDDs and CDDs is projected to continue throughout the 21st century. The largest absolute decreases in HDDs are expected in northern and south-eastern Europe; the largest absolute increases in CDDs are expected in southern Europe. The decrease in HDDs in Europe is projected to be much larger than the increase in CDDs in absolute terms. However, a given change in CDDs generally has larger economic impacts than the same change in HDDs, because cooling is almost exclusively produced from electricity, whereas heating is often derived from energy carriers with lower specific costs and primary energy requirements. The projected increase in cooling demand in southern Europe may further exacerbate peaks in electricity demand in summer. This can threaten the stability of electricity networks during summer heatwaves, unless appropriate adaptation measures are taken.

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This table shows which EEA member countries have national adaptation strategies and national adaptation plans in place.

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Exposure-response associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities, together with related temperatures distributions. The shaded grey area delineates the 95 % empirical confidence interval. Solid grey vertical lines are minimum mortality temperatures and dashed grey vertical lines delineate the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile temperatures.

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Climate change is warming the oceans, causing acidification of marine environments, and changing rainfall patterns. This combination of factors often exacerbates of other human pressures on the seas, leading to biodiversity loss in the oceans.

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This map viewer provides access to climate related observations and projections of climate change impacts, vulnerability and risks from the following projects and organisations: ClimWatAdapt, ESPON Climate, JRC-IES and ENSEMBLES. Please note that there are differences in the climate change scenarios and models used across these projects and organisations. Provided by the the 'CLIMATE-ADAPT' portal.

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This layer provides information at 237 locations along the European coastline

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Climate quality index: Structural analysis 1961-1990

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This past summer’s heatwaves and extreme weather events have broken new climate records in Europe once again reinforcing the importance of climate change adaptation. We sat down with Blaz Kurnik, a European Environment Agency (EEA) expert on climate change impacts and adaptation to discuss the EEA’s new report on how climate change is impacting agriculture in Europe which came out earlier this month.

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False-colour view of total ozone over the North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) poles. The purple and blue colours indicate the lowest ozone presence, while yellow and red indicate higher ozone presence. Ozone concentration is commonly measured in Dobson Units. One Dobson Unit is the number of molecules of ozone that would be required to create a layer of pure ozone 0.01 millimetres thick at a temperature of 0 degrees Celsius and a pressure of 1 atmosphere.

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Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways. Changes in temperature and precipitation as well as weather and climate extremes are already influencing crop yields and livestock productivity in Europe. Weather and climate conditions also affect the availability of water needed for irrigation, livestock watering practices, processing of agricultural products, and transport and storage conditions. Climate change is projected to reduce crop productivity in parts of southern Europe and to improve the conditions for growing crops in northern Europe. Although northern regions may experience longer growing seasons and more suitable crop conditions in future, the number of extreme events negatively affecting agriculture in Europe is projected to increase.

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Crop and livestock production is projected to decrease and may even have to be abandoned in parts of Europe’s southern and Mediterranean regions due to the increased negative impacts of climate change, according to a European Environment Agency (EEA) report published today. The study says that adapting to climate change must be made a top priority for the European Union’s agriculture sector if it is to improve resilience to extreme events like droughts, heatwaves and floods.

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The top maps show the median of the number of heat waves in a multi-model ensemble of the near future (2020–2052) and the latter half of the century (2068–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and the lower maps are for the same time periods but under RCP8.5

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Building a climate‑resilient low‑carbon energy system

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All parts of Europe’s energy system, from availability of energy sources to energy consumption, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, according to a European Environment Agency report, published today. To secure reliable supply of clean energy, Europe’s energy system needs to adapt and become more climate resilient, the report states.

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According to different observational records of global average annual near-surface (land and ocean) temperature, the last decade (2009–2018) was 0.91 °C to 0.96 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Of the 18 warmest years on record, 17 have occurred since 2000. The year 2018 was the world’s fourth warmest year on record after the years 2016, 2015 and 2017.  The average annual temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2009–2018) was between 1.6 °C and 1.7 °C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. In Europe, 2018 was among three warmest years on record.  Climate models project further increases in global average temperature over the 21st century (for the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005) of between 0.3 °C and 1.7 °C for the lowest emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) and between 2.6 °C and 4.8 °C for the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5). All UNFCCC member countries have agreed on the long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels and have agreed to aim to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. For the three highest of the four RCPs, the global average temperature increase is projected to exceed 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels by 2050. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to increase by the end of this century (2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000) in the range of 1.0 °C to 4.5 °C under RCP4.5, and 2.5 °C to 5.5 °C under RCP8.5, which is more than the projected global average increase. The strongest warming is projected across north-eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter and southern Europe in summer. The number of warm days (those exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of a baseline period) have doubled between 1960 and 2018 across the European land area. Europe has experienced several extreme heat waves since 2000 (2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017 and 2018). Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), extreme heat waves as strong as these or even stronger are projected to occur as often as every two years in the second half of the 21st century. In southern Europe, they are projected to be particularly strong.

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The annual population-weighted heating degree days (HDD) decreased by 6 % between the periods 1950–1980 and 1981–2017; the decrease during the period 1981–2017 was on average 6.5 HDDs per year. The largest decrease occurred in northern Europe and possibly in Italy. The annual population-weighted cooling degree days (CDD) increased by 33 % between the periods 1950–1980 and 1981–2017; the increase during the period 1981–2017 was on average 0.9 HDDs per year. The largest increase occurred in southern Europe. The observed trend in HDDs and CDDs is projected to continue throughout the 21st century. The largest absolute decreases in HDDs are expected in northern and south-eastern Europe; the largest absolute increases in CDDs are expected in southern Europe. The decrease in HDDs in Europe is projected to be much larger than the increase in CDDs in absolute terms. However, a given change in CDDs generally has larger economic impacts than the same change in HDDs, because cooling is almost exclusively produced from electricity, whereas heating is often derived from energy carriers with lower specific costs and primary energy requirements. The projected increase in cooling demand in southern Europe may further exacerbate peaks in electricity demand in summer. This can threaten the stability of electricity networks during summer heatwaves, unless appropriate adaptation measures are taken.

Read more

This table shows which EEA member countries have national adaptation strategies and national adaptation plans in place.

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Targeted action is needed to better protect Europe’s most vulnerable populations, including the poor, the elderly and children, from environmental hazards like air and noise pollution and extreme temperatures. Aleksandra Kazmierczak, a European Environment Agency (EEA) climate change adaptation expert, explains the main findings of a new EEA report that assesses the links between social and demographic inequalities and exposure to air pollution, noise and extreme temperatures.

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Exposure-response associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities, together with related temperatures distributions. The shaded grey area delineates the 95 % empirical confidence interval. Solid grey vertical lines are minimum mortality temperatures and dashed grey vertical lines delineate the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile temperatures.

Read more

Climate change is warming the oceans, causing acidification of marine environments, and changing rainfall patterns. This combination of factors often exacerbates of other human pressures on the seas, leading to biodiversity loss in the oceans.

Read more

This map viewer provides access to climate related observations and projections of climate change impacts, vulnerability and risks from the following projects and organisations: ClimWatAdapt, ESPON Climate, JRC-IES and ENSEMBLES. Please note that there are differences in the climate change scenarios and models used across these projects and organisations. Provided by the the 'CLIMATE-ADAPT' portal.

Read more

This layer provides information at 237 locations along the European coastline

Read more

Climate quality index: Structural analysis 1961-1990

Read more