Arctic and Baltic Sea ice

Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• No published assessments

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Observed changes in the extent of Arctic Sea ice provide early evidence of global climate warming. Sea ice is a habitat for endemic species in a unique ecosystem, and it also plays an important role for the pelagic ecosystem in the open ocean. Species specialised to live in conditions dominated by sea ice are affected and this can also affect use of living natural resources. Reduced polar sea ice will speed up global warming and is expected to affect ocean circulation and weather patterns across northern Europe.

The projected loss of sea ice may offer new economic opportunities for oil and gas exploration, shipping, tourism and some types of fishery. Most of these activities would increase pressure on, and risks to, the Arctic environment.

Scientific references

• UNEP, 2007. Global outlook for ice and snow. UNEP Arendal/ Nairobi 2007.
• IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp.
• Arctic Climate Issues 2011: Changes in Arctic Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost AMAP, 2012. Arctic Climate Issues 2011: Changes in Arctic Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost. SWIPA 2011 Overview Report.

Indicator definition

• Trend in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September

• Maximum ice cover extent in the Baltic Sea
• Projected changes in Nothern Hemisphere sea ice extent

Units

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.

The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

Related policy documents

• Climate-ADAPT: Adaptation in EU policy sectors
  Overview of EU sector policies in which mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change is ongoing or explored
• Climate-ADAPT: Country profiles
  Overview of activities of EEA member countries in preparing, developing and implementing adaptation strategies
• DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change
  Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives in the future. This web portal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission.
• EU Adaptation Strategy Package
  In April 2013, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Input data was available from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF reanalysis project, in which a consistent time series of daily, gridded data for sea ice concentration is made from the passive microwave sensors SMMR and SSM/I data, monthly aggregated sea ice products are generated by CryoClim.

The annual maximum ice extent in the Baltic Sea was estimated utilizing the material of the Finnish operational ice service from the winters of 1945-1995 and information collected by Prof. Jurva from the winters of 1720-1940. The latter originated from various sources, including observations at lighthouses, old newspapers, records on travel on ice,scientific articles, and air temperature data from Stockholm and Helsinki.

Projections for Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent were derived from the CMIP5 ensemble experiment.

The graphs show the data as delivered; Trend lines were added.

Methodology for gap filling

Not applicable

Methodology references

• Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin BACC Author Team, 2008. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg;

Data specifications

EEA data references

• No datasets have been specified here.

External data references

• Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - CMIP5
• Climate indicators for Sea Ice
• Ice winters in the Baltic Sea (dataset URL is not available)

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

Data on the cryosphere vary significantly with regard to availability and quality. Snow and ice cover have been monitored globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Improvements in technology allow for more detailed observations and higher resolution.

Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified