Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• No published assessments

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Climate change can lead to significant shifts in the geographic and seasonal distribution ranges of vector-borne diseases in Europe.

Climate can affect vector-borne diseases by shortening the life-cycles of vectors and the incubation periods of vector-borne pathogens, thereby potentially leading to larger vector populations and higher transmission risks. Over the longer term, seasonal changes could affect both vectors and host animals, as well as human behaviours and land-use patterns, thereby further influencing the geographical distribution, seasonal activity and overall prevalence of vector-borne diseases in Europe. Furthermore, climatic suitability is essential for the arrival, establishment and spread of ‘exotic’ diseases that are not currently established in continental Europe. In addition to climate, the spread of communicable diseases depends on a range of interconnected ecological, economic and social factors, such as land-use patterns and fragmentation; biological diversity; the capacity of public health systems; travel, trade and migration; and human behaviours affecting individual risk factors.

Scientific references

• EEA (2010) The European environment – state and outlook 2010 Synthesis. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen.
• Semenza and Menne (2009): Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe Semenza, J. C. and Menne, B. (2009) Climate change and infectious diseases in Europe. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 9(6), 365–375.
• IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Field, C.B. and V.R. Barros (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, in press.

Indicator definition

• Distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi in questing I. ricinus ticks in Europe

• Change in distribution of Aedes albopictus in Europe

• Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti in Europe
• Projected change in climatic conditions for Chikungunya transmission

Units

• Risk level
• Presence vs. absence
• %
• Climatic suitability

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.

The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

Related policy documents

• Climate-ADAPT: Country information
  Overview of activities of EEA member countries in preparing, developing and implementing adaptation strategies
• Climate-ADAPT: Mainstreaming adaptation in EU sector policies
  Overview of EU sector policies in which mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change is ongoing or explored
• DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change
  Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives in the future. This web portal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission.
• EU Adaptation Strategy Package
  In April 2013, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Simulations are used for the risk calculation for the probability of finding nymphal ticks positive for Borrelia burgdorferi and for the climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti in Europe. The detection of the occurance of the tiger mosquito is based on observations.

Methodology for gap filling

Not applicable

Methodology references

• Estrada-Pena et al. 2011: Correlation of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato prevalence in questing Ixodes ricinus ticks with specific abiotic traits in the Western Palearctic Estrada-Pena, A., Ortega, C., Sanchez, N., DeSimone, L., Sudre, B., Suk, J. E. and Semenza, J. C. (2011) Correlation of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato prevalence in questing Ixodes ricinus ticks with specific abiotic traits in the Western Palearctic. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 77(11), 3838–3845. doi:10.1128/AEM.00067-11
• ECDC (2012) The climatic suitability for dengue transmission in continental Europe. (ECDC Technical Report). European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, Stockholm, Sweden.
• Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe Dominik Fischer , Stephanie M Thomas, Jonathan E Suk, Bertrand Sudre , Andrea Hess , Nils B Tjaden, Carl Beierkuhnlein and Jan C Semenza (2013): Climate change effects on Chikungunya transmission in Europe: geospatial analysis of vector’s climatic suitability and virus’ temperature requirements. International Journal of Health Geographics 2013, 12:51. doi:10.1186/1476-072X-12-51

Data specifications

EEA data references

• No datasets have been specified here.

External data references

• Mosquito maps
• European distribution of Borrelia burgdorferi in questing I. ricinus ticks

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

Attribution of health effects to climate change is difficult due to the complexity of interactions, and potentially modifying effects of a range of other factors (such as land use changes, public health preparedness, and socio-economic conditions). Criteria for defining a climate-sensitive health impact are not always well identified and their detection sometimes relies on complex statistical or modelling studies. Furthermore, these criteria as well as the completeness and reliability of observations may differ between regions and/or institutions, and they may change over time. Data availability and quality is crucial in climate change and human health assessments, both for longer term changes in climate-sensitive health outcomes, and for health impacts of extreme events. The monitoring of climate-sensitive health effects is currently fragmentary and heterogeneous. All these factors make it difficult to identify significant trends in climate-sensitive health outcomes over time, and to compare them across regions. In the absence of reliable time series, more complex approaches are often used to assess the past, current or future impacts of climate change on human health.

Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified