All official European Union website addresses are in the europa.eu domain.
See all EU institutions and bodiesDo something for our planet, print this page only if needed. Even a small action can make an enormous difference when millions of people do it!
Indicator Assessment
Background
The EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package introduced a clear approach to achieving a 20 % reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, compared with 1990 levels, equivalent to a 14 % reduction compared with 2005. This 14 % reduction objective is to be achieved through a 21 % reduction compared with 2005 levels for emissions covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), and a 9 % reduction for sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) (EU, 2009c).
To ensure that the EU is cost-effectively attaining its long-term objective, EU leaders agreed, in October 2014, on a 2030 climate and energy policy framework for the EU and endorsed a binding target of at least a 40 % domestic reduction in GHG emissions, compared with 1990 levels (European Council, 2014). This target will be delivered collectively, with a 43 % reduction in the ETS sectors and a 30 % reduction in the Effort Sharing sectors by 2030, compared with 2005 levels.
Historic trends and projected progress of the EU since 1990 in relation to the above targets
The EU is well on track to achieve its GHG emission reduction target of a 20 % decrease compared with 1990 levels (EEA, 2017). Total GHG emissions in the EU-28 in 2015 amounted to 4 452 million tonnes CO2-equivalent (MtCO2e) which is 22 % less than the 1990 level.
Overall, GHG emissions increased by 0.5 % compared with 2014, when emissions were at their lowest since 1990 (see Figure 1). This increase was mainly because of the higher heat demand by households and services resulting from the slightly colder winter conditions in Europe. It was also a result of higher road transport demand, which increased for the second year in a row, as did energy consumption, according to early estimates (2015 and 2016-proxy). For more information, see the EEA's Annual Indicator Report Series on Energy efficiency, the EEA briefing Approximated greenhouse gas emission in 2016 and the EEA Report Trends and Projections in Europe 2017.
Nevertheless, the EU has improved its energy intensity over the examined period of 1990-2015. This is because of energy efficiency improvements and structural changes in the economy as well as reduced energy consumption as a result of the 2008 economic downturn. The decreasing trend in GHG since 1990 was also due to:
Early estimates for 2016 indicate that the long-term emission reduction in the EU observed since 2005 continues, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. Total EU emissions in 2016 were estimated to be 4 423 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e). This corresponds to a decrease in emissions of 29 MtCO2e (-0.7 %) between 2015 and 2016, and to a 23 % decrease between 1990 and 2016. A detailed analysis of the 1990-2016 changes in GHG emissions is provided in the EEA briefing Approximated greenhouse gas emission in 2016.
As projected by the EU Member States, emissions for the EU are expected to decrease further by 2020 to 26 % below 1990 levels, with the current measures that are already in place. This would surpass the reduction target of 20 %. Additional measures currently planned by Member States could further reduce emissions to 27 % below 1990 levels. Most of the savings in GHGs are expected to take in the sectors covered by the EU ETS (EEA, 2017).
With regard to 2030 a reduction of EU GHG emissions of between 30 % (on the basis of existing mitigation measures) and 32 % (accounting for planned mitigation measures) could be achieved by 2030, compared with 1990 levels according to Member States’ projections reported in 2017. These projected reductions fall short of the 40 % target for 2030, in the sectors under both the EU ETS and the ESD. According to these 2017 projections, future cuts in national GHG emissions will take place mainly in the sectors covered by the ETS (between 35 % and 42 %, compared with 2005 levels), while in the sectors covered by the Effort Sharing legislation the projected reductions for 2030 are somewhat smaller (between 20 % and 22 %, compared with 2005 levels).
Emission changes by key source in the EU-28 between 1990 and 2015
GHG emissions decreased in the majority of sectors between 1990 and 2015, with the notable exception of transport (see Figure 2). The sectors and gases that accounted for the largest decreases in the EU-28 were manufacturing industries and construction (CO2), public electricity and heat production (CO2), and residential combustion (CO2). The sectors and gases with the largest increases over the period were road transportation (CO2) and the consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in industrial processes. CO2 emissions from international aviation and shipping also increased very rapidly during the 25-year period.
The chart on the left of Figure 2 shows emissions by sector over the 25-year period for the EU-28. The effect of the economic downturn in 2008 is visible in energy supply and industry from 2008. The downwards emission trend in the residential and commercial sectors fluctuates over the time series, generally reflecting the effect of warmer or colder winters on heat demand. In the case of transport, emissions increased substantially until 2007 and have declined somewhat in the past years, although they increased again in 2014 and 2015. Preliminary estimates for 2016 suggest that transport emissions continue to increase.
The largest increase in emissions can be observed in CO2 emissions from biomass, international aviation and international shipping (see the three reddish bars in Figure 2). A detailed analysis of the 1990-2015 changes in GHG emissions is provided in the EEA report Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015. A detailed analysis of shipping and aviation emissions is provided in the forthcoming TERM Report.
GHG emissions in EU ETS and in ESD sectors since 1990
GHG emissions from the stationary sectors, which since 2005 are covered by the EU ETS, have decreased significantly since 1990 (see Figure 3). The EU ETS cap was defined to reduce emissions by 21 % between 2005 and 2020. In 2016, EU ETS emissions from Member States’ stationary installations had already decreased by 27 % if compared to 2005, reaching their lowest level since the start of the scheme in 2005. This decrease was mostly driven by reductions in emissions related to power generation. Ex post evaluation of climate policies show that the reduction in emissions was largely the result of changes in the combination of fuels used to produce heat and electricity, and in particular, a decrease in the use of hard coal and lignite fuels, better and more efficient installations, and a substantial increase in electricity generation from renewables, which almost doubled since 2005. In addition, the reduced production volumes reduced emissions in this sector, too. Emissions from the other industrial activities covered by the EU ETS have also decreased since 2005, but they remained stable in the current trading period (2013-2016).
According to the projections submitted by Member States in 2017, future cuts in national GHG emissions will take place mainly under the EU ETS. With the existing measures in place, emissions from stationary installations under the EU ETS are projected to decrease by 6 % between 2016 and 2020, and by 6 % between 2020 and 2030. According to scenarios that consider planned measures, reductions of an additional three percentage points are projected for 2020 and 2030, compared with the reductions predicted by the scenario with existing measures. Most of the projected reductions by 2020 and 2030 are expected to occur in the energy industries sector, while emissions from other activities are envisaged to remain more or less stable during this period. The emissions from international aviation, however, have more than doubled between 1990 and 2015 and are expected to increase by 16.5 % between 2015-2030.
In 2015, greenhouse gas emissions from the ESD sectors (residential and commercial, transport, agriculture, waste and smaller industrial installation sectors) represented approximately 58 % of total EU greenhouse gas emissions. GHG emissions from sectors now covered by the ESD have decreased since 1990, albeit at a slower rate than those covered under the EU ETS (see Figure 3). This reflects the diversity and mitigation potentials of the sectors covered by the ESD. In 2015, ESD emissions were 11.6 % below 2005 levels. This reduction is greater than the 9.3 % reduction objective for ESD emissions between 2005 and 2020 at EU level. However, GHG levels in 2015 increased by 1.7 % compared with the previous year and are estimated to increase again slightly by 0.85 % in 2016 according to preliminary estimates. In particular, emissions from buildings and the transport sector have been rising in recent years.
For 2030, Member States project a 20 % reduction of ESD emissions compared with 2005 in the WEM scenario, and a 22 % reduction in the WAM scenario. These reductions remain insufficient compared with the 30 % reduction that non-ETS sectors should achieve by 2030, as a contribution to delivering the EU target of an at least 40 % domestic reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared with 1990. The 2030 targets thus require efforts from Member States beyond the measures that are currently implemented or planned.
GHG emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision, by country
In contrast to the sectors covered by the EU ETS, which are regulated at EU level, it is the responsibility of EU Member States to define and implement national policies and measures to limit emissions from the sectors covered by the ESD.
The national emissions targets for 2020 range from a 20 % reduction in emissions (compared with 2005 levels) to a 20 % increase. Less wealthy countries are allowed emission increases in the ESD sectors.
The assessment of current progress towards the ESD targets compares the non-ETS emissions for each year with the annual national targets. In 2015, all Member States but one (Malta) were below their national ESD targets (see Figure 4). According to preliminary estimates for 2016, four Member States (Belgium, Finland, Ireland and Malta) have exibited emissions higher than their ESD target for 2016. These Member States may therefore need to use flexibilities provided under the ESD to ensure compliance. National projections show that, in most Member States, ESD emissions will remain below annual ESD targets until 2020. However, in seven Member States (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Malta, Ireland and Luxembourg) emissions in 2020 could exceed targets if no additional measures are implemented.
Examples of potential policies and measures that could be implemented to reduce emissions include reducing transport demand, promoting public transport, a shift away from transport based on fossil fuels, support schemes for the retrofitting of building stock, more efficient heating and cooling systems, renewable energy for heating and cooling, more climate-friendly farming practices and the conversion of livestock manure to biogas (EC, 2015).
Further analysis is provided in the EEA Report Trends and Projections in Europe 2017.
The present indicator (CSI010) presents total and sectoral trends of anthropogenic GHG emissions in Europe from 1990 onwards and assesses the progress of the EU, individual Member States and other EEA countries towards their international and internal EU GHG targets.
The indicator provides information on emissions from the main anthropogenic GHG sources, distributed by the main emitting sectors and based on IPCC nomenclature. In addition, the indicator shows past and projected GHG emissions in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and non-ETS/Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) sectors, in accordance with the EU legal scheme. As a general rule, emissions from international aviation are included in the totals presented in the indicator, consistent with the EU legal scheme ('Domestic scope'). These emissions are not covered by the Kyoto Protocol (KP), in accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines, and therefore they are excluded from the totals under the EU's international reporting of GHG inventories ('International scope'). Unless otherwise mentioned, the indicator does not cover emissions from international shipping. Net land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) emissions and/or removals, and CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass (including biofuels in transport) are not included in national GHG emission totals, according to UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines.
The indicator covers all 28 Member States of the European Union. The Member States' geographical coverage of the indicator is consistent with the EU coverage under the Kyoto Protocol. When available, information concerning other EEA member countries is also included. Especially when referring to the second commitment period of the KP, the European aggregates are presented for the 28 Member States and Iceland, since the European Union, its Member States and Iceland have agreed to fulfill their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments jointly.
The indicator covers annual emissions since 1990.
This indicator expresses GHG emissions in 'million tonnes CO2-equivalent' (Mt CO2e)
The UNFCCC sets an ultimate objective of stabilising GHG concentrations 'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.' It also requires precise and regularly updated inventories of GHGs from industrialised countries.
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the UNFCCC, which sets binding targets for industrialised countries and the European Union for reducing GHGs. It runs over two commitment periods; the first started in 2008 and ended in 2012, whereas the second started in 2013 and will end in 2020. The EU and its Member States have signed up to the Protocol.
The European Union, as a party to the UNFCCC and to the Protocol, reports annually on the GHG emissions within the area covered by its Member States. The Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report, officially submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, is prepared on behalf of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Air and Climate Mitigation (ETC/ACM), supported by the Joint Research Centre and Eurostat.
In 2007, EU leaders committed to a 20 % reduction in EU GHG emissions by 2020 on the basis of 1990 GHG emissions (or a 14 % decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020). The EU has also committed to increasing the share of renewable energy in the EU's final energy consumption to 20 % (with a minimum 10 % share in the transport sector), and to save 20 % of the EU’s energy consumption through increased energy efficiency (the '20-20-20' objective).
The EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package, adopted in 2009, sets a two-fold legislative framework to achieve the 20 % GHG emission reduction objective: a 21 % reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS, compared with 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10 % compared with 2005 levels, shared between the EU Member States through differentiated annual national GHG targets under the ESD.
Building on the 2020 climate and energy package, the European Council recently adopted the 2030 climate and energy framework, which sets a target of a 40 % reduction in GHG emissions compared with 1990 as well as renewable energy and energy efficiency targets of at least 27 % by 2030. The 2030 framework is an EU priority, which follows the Paris Agreement and is consistent with the longer term objective of the '2050 low-carbon economy roadmap', which sets the EU ambition to reduce its GHG emissions by 80 % compared with 1990, with milestones of 40 % by 2030 and 60 % by 2040.
The current indicator aims to present an assessment of the EU's progress and that of individual countries towards their international and national targets under the Kyoto Protocol (in both commitment periods: 2008-2012 and 2013-2020) and under the ESD respectively. The indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by the EEA countries and the EU to the UNFCCC, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation 525/2013, MMR). In order to calculate the distance to the national ESD targets, emissions reported in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are also taken into account.
First commitment period (CP1), 2008-2012
For the first commitment period (2008-2012), the 15 States that were EU members in 1997, when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, took on an 8 % reduction from the base-year target that was then redistributed among themselves, taking advantage of a scheme under the Protocol known as a 'bubble', whereby countries have different individual targets, which when combined make an overall target for that group of countries. The differentiated targets are set out in Annex II to the Council Decision 2002/358/EC concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC and the joint fulfillment of commitments thereunder.
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the other (non EU-15) Member States (apart from Cyprus and Malta) have individual targets. Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia have reduction targets of 8 % from the base year, while Hungary and Poland have reduction targets of 6 % and Croatia has a reduction target of 5 %. Of the additional EEA member countries, Norway and Iceland are allowed to increase emissions under the Kyoto Protocol by 1 % and 10 %, respectively, from their base-year emissions. Liechtenstein and Switzerland have reduction targets of 8 %. Turkey is a Party to the Kyoto Protocol but has no reduction target.
Second commitment period (CP2), 2013-2020
The EU, its 28 Member States and Iceland agreed to a joint quantified emission reduction commitment of 80 % under the Kyoto Protocol's second commitment period (2013-2020). This is equivalent to a 20 % reduction compared with base-year levels. The 'initial report' of the EU and Iceland (EU-KP) will contain the assigned amount for the second commitment period, as calculated by the Party and will be submitted to the UNFCCC in 2016.
EU greenhouse gas targets for 2020
The unilateral 20 % GHG reduction target, in the context of the EU Climate and Energy Package, corresponds to a 14 % decrease in emissions between 2005 and 2020. The target is to be achieved both in the sectors covered by the EU ETS (21 % reduction in EU ETS emissions compared with 2005 levels) and in the other sectors covered by national emission targets under the ESD.
The ESD targets used in the indicator are consistent with the EU ETS scope for the third trading period (2013–2020), based on Commission Decision 2013/162/EU of 26 March 2013 on determining Member States' annual emissions allocations for the period 2013-2020, pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (OJ L 90, 28.3.2013, p. 106–110) and Commission Implementing Decision 2013/634/EU of 31 October 2013 on the adjustments to Member States' annual emissions allocations for the period 2013-2020, pursuant to Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council (OJ L 292, 1.11.2013, p. 19–22).
The ESD targets (2020 percentage target compared with 2005, and annual absolute targets consistent with the 2013-2020 ETS scope and global warming potentials from the IPCC AR4) are presented in the table below:
Country |
2020 Target (%) |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
Austria |
-16 |
52.63 |
52.08 |
51.53 |
50.99 |
50.44 |
49.90 |
49.35 |
48.80 |
Belgium |
-15 |
78.38 |
76.85 |
75.32 |
73.79 |
72.26 |
70.74 |
69.21 |
67.68 |
Bulgaria |
20 |
26.93 |
27.20 |
27.47 |
27.73 |
28.00 |
28.27 |
28.54 |
28.80 |
Croatia |
11 |
19.61 |
19.81 |
20.00 |
20.19 |
20.38 |
20.57 |
20.76 |
20.95 |
Cyprus |
-5 |
5.92 |
5.92 |
5.93 |
5.93 |
5.93 |
5.94 |
5.94 |
5.94 |
Czechia |
9 |
62.47 |
63.21 |
63.95 |
64.69 |
65.43 |
66.17 |
66.91 |
67.65 |
Denmark |
-20 |
36.83 |
35.93 |
35.02 |
34.12 |
33.21 |
32.31 |
31.41 |
30.50 |
Estonia |
11 |
6.30 |
6.32 |
6.35 |
6.37 |
6.39 |
6.42 |
6.44 |
6.47 |
Finland |
-16 |
31.78 |
31.29 |
30.80 |
30.31 |
29.82 |
29.34 |
28.85 |
28.36 |
France |
-14 |
394.08 |
389.46 |
384.43 |
379.40 |
374.38 |
369.35 |
364.32 |
359.29 |
Germany |
-14 |
472.53 |
465.83 |
459.13 |
452.44 |
445.74 |
439.04 |
432.34 |
425.65 |
Greece |
-4 |
58.96 |
59.28 |
59.61 |
59.94 |
60.26 |
60.59 |
60.92 |
61.24 |
Hungary |
10 |
50.40 |
51.52 |
52.63 |
53.75 |
54.87 |
55.99 |
57.10 |
58.22 |
Ireland |
-20 |
46.89 |
45.76 |
44.63 |
43.50 |
42.37 |
41.24 |
40.11 |
38.97 |
Italy |
-13 |
308.16 |
306.20 |
304.23 |
302.27 |
300.30 |
298.34 |
296.38 |
294.41 |
Latvia |
17 |
9.26 |
9.35 |
9.44 |
9.53 |
9.62 |
9.72 |
9.81 |
9.90 |
Lithuania |
15 |
12.94 |
13.30 |
13.66 |
14.02 |
14.38 |
14.74 |
15.10 |
15.46 |
Luxembourg |
-20 |
9.54 |
9.34 |
9.14 |
8.94 |
8.74 |
8.54 |
8.34 |
8.14 |
Malta |
5 |
1.17 |
1.17 |
1.17 |
1.16 |
1.16 |
1.16 |
1.16 |
1.16 |
Netherlands |
-16 |
122.95 |
120.68 |
118.40 |
116.13 |
113.86 |
111.59 |
109.31 |
107.04 |
Poland |
14 |
193.64 |
194.89 |
196.13 |
197.37 |
198.61 |
199.86 |
201.10 |
202.34 |
Portugal |
1 |
49.31 |
49.59 |
49.86 |
50.14 |
50.41 |
50.69 |
50.97 |
51.24 |
Romania |
19 |
75.63 |
77.45 |
79.27 |
81.10 |
82.92 |
84.74 |
86.56 |
88.38 |
Slovakia |
13 |
24.02 |
24.38 |
24.74 |
25.10 |
25.46 |
25.82 |
26.18 |
26.54 |
Slovenia |
4 |
12.32 |
12.35 |
12.38 |
12.41 |
12.44 |
12.47 |
12.50 |
12.53 |
Spain |
-10 |
227.56 |
225.65 |
223.73 |
221.82 |
219.90 |
217.99 |
216.07 |
214.16 |
Sweden |
-17 |
41.69 |
41.04 |
40.40 |
39.76 |
39.12 |
38.48 |
37.84 |
37.20 |
United Kingdom |
-16 |
358.74 |
354.22 |
349.70 |
345.18 |
340.66 |
336.14 |
331.62 |
327.10 |
EU greenhouse gas targets post 2020
In October 2015, the European Council adopted the '2030 climate and energy framework', setting a binding target to cut emissions in the EU territory by at least 40 % below 1990 levels by 2030. To achieve this target of at least 40 %:
The 2030 framework is consistent with the longer-term objective of the '2050 low-carbon economy roadmap', which sets the EU ambition to reduce its GHG emissions by 80 % compared with 1990, with milestones of 40 % by 2030 and 60 % by 2060. It is also a milestone for the EU’s contribution to the Paris Agreement, which was adopted in December 2015.
This indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by the EEA countries to the EEA, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation 525/2013, MMR). The official EU GHG inventory submitted by the EU to the UNFCCC is based on the same data and is also used. The EU ETS emissions, as provided to the European Commission, are also used. When available, approximate estimates of the GHG emissions for the year (X-1) are also presented.
More information on the datasets used is given in the paragraphs below.
Greenhouse gases
In line with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories, the national inventories cover emissions and removals of the following GHGs:
- carbon dioxide (CO2), including indirect CO2;
- methane (CH4);
- nitrous oxide (N2O);
- hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);
- perfluorocarbons (PFCs);
- suphur hexafluoride (SF6); and
- nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)
from six sectors (Energy, Industrial processes and product use, Agriculture, LULUCF, Waste and Other).
The gases do not include the GHGs that are also ozone-depleting substances, which are controlled by the Montreal Protocol (see CSI006).
Emissions from LULUCF are not included in total GHG emissions presented in the indicator. Because of this, CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass (including biofuels in transport) are also reported as a memorandum item to avoid double counting of emissions from a reporting perspective. These emissions are not covered by the KP, in accordance with the UNFCCC guidelines, and therefore, they are excluded from the totals under the EU's international reporting of GHG inventories ('International scope'). Unless otherwise mentioned, the indicator does not cover emissions from maritime transport.
In order to be aggregated, non-CO2 gases are weighted by their respective global warming potential (GWP) and presented in CO2-equivalent units. Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given mass of a GHG is estimated to contribute to global warming on a 100-year horizon.
In accordance with the UNFCCC rules, the GWP values used in this indicator are the ones from IPCC AR4:
Gas |
Global warming potential values from IPCC AR2 [before 2015] |
Global warming potential values from IPCC AR4 [after 2015] |
Carbon dioxide (CO2) |
1 |
1 |
Methane (CH4) |
21 |
25 |
Nitrous oxide (N2O) |
310 |
298 |
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) |
23 900 |
22 800 |
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) |
_ |
17 200 |
HFCs and PFCs comprise a large number of different gases that have different GWPs. The full list of GWPs can be found here: IPCC AR 4
Greenhouse gas inventories
For the preparation of their national inventories, countries use the methodologies of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
Parties have also agreed to use the formats indicated in Decision 24/CP.19. According to this, the reporting of GHG emissions is allocated in six sectors (Energy, Industrial processes and product use, Agriculture, Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), Waste and Other).
In the indicator, GHG emissions are attributed to the main emitting sectors at a disaggregated level, based on the IPCC definition of source categories and the common reporting format (CRF) followed by Parties. For this, the following categories are referenced:
Projected greenhouse gas emissions
For projected GHG emissions, information submitted by the EEA countries under the MMR is used. The projected GHG emissions referred to in the indicator are those reported under the 'with existing measures' scenario (WEM) and the 'with additional measures' scenario (WAM).
Emission trading system emissions
Emissions from the EU ETS are also presented in the indicator. The EU ETS runs over three trading periods: Phase I (2005-2007), Phase II (2008-2012) and Phase III (2013-2020).
In 2013, the scope of the EU ETS was expanded to include additional references to (a) the capture, transport and geological storage of GHG emissions; (b) CO2 emissions from petrochemical, ammonia and aluminium production; (c) N2O emissions from the production of nitric, adipidic and glyoxylic acids; and (d) PFC emissions from aluminium production. Since 1 January 2012, aviation has also been part of the EU ETS.
Since 2013, these emissions have been calculated by the plant operators that fall under the ETS obligations in line with Regulation No 601/2012, whereas in Phase II of the EU ETS (2008-2012), the monitoring and reporting of the operators was based on Commission Decision 2004/156/EU.
Croatia entered the EU ETS Scheme on 1 January 2013.
Approximated greenhouse gas inventory
Finally, whenever relevant, this indicator uses data and estimates from the 'Approximated GHG inventory' for the year (X-1). These 'proxy' inventories are reported by Member States to the EEA and to the Commission under the MMR by 31 July of each year, X, and are calculated at an aggregated level on the basis of the national and international information available for the year (X-1).
Greenhouse gas inventories (years 1990-(X-2)):
The historic emission data presented in the indicator are based on the information reported by Member States under the MMR. However, should a Member State not submit the inventory data required to compile the EU inventory, the Commission shall prepare estimates to complete the GHG inventories submitted by Member States in consultation and close cooperation with the Member States concerned. In this case, the Member State shall use the gap-filled inventory in its official submission to the UNFCCC. The basis for these gap-filling processes is described in the Commission Delegated Regulation of 12.03.2014 (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/monitoring/docs/c_2014_1539_en.pdf )
Approximated greenhouse gas inventory (year X-1):
Under the MMR, the Commission shall also estimate a Member State’s approximated GHG inventory if the Member State does not provide it. These estimates are provided by the EEA and are country-specific. More information on the methodology used for gap-filling is provided in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report' of each year.
Projected greenhouse gas emissions (year X–2035):
In order to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the reporting of projections by the EU and its Member States, the quality of the reported projections is assessed by the ETC/ACM on behalf of the EEA. As the Member States' reporting of projections is carried out every 2 years by countries, in certain cases, projections are adjusted to ensure full consistency with historic GHG emission data from the latest GHG inventories. Where a country has not made a submission, data are gap-filled by the ETC/ACM.
Greenhouse gas inventories
(a) Difference in methodologies between countries
Since Member States use different national methodologies, national activity data or country-specific emission factors in accordance with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines, these different methodologies are reflected in the EU GHG inventory data. The EU believes that it is consistent with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines and the 2006 IPCCC guidelines to use different methodologies for one source category across the EU territory, especially if this helps to reduce the uncertainty and improve the consistency of the emission data, provided that each methodology is consistent with the 2006 IPCC guidelines. At the same time, the EU is making an effort to promote and support the use of higher tier methodologies across Member States. At the EU level, and for most of the key categories of the EU inventory, more than 75 % of the EU-KP emissions are calculated using higher tier methodologies, resulting in lower uncertainty rates.
(b) Global warming potential
According to the IPCC, the GWP values used in the IPCC AR4 have an uncertainty of ±35 % for the 5-95 % (90 %) confidence range.
Projected greenhouse gas emissions
The methodology proposed consists of simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:
Several countries carry out sensitivity analyses on their projections.
Approximated greenhouse gas inventory
The uncertainty ranges estimated in the approximated GHG inventories are derived by comparing the official national data submitted to the UNFCCC in year X with the proxy estimates of the same year. The uncertainty for the approximated emissions at the EU level is estimated as the weighted mean of the differences described: weighted again by the relative contribution that each Member State makes to total EU-28 emissions. More details about these methodologies are provided each year in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report'.
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines provide approaches on how Parties should estimate uncertainties, suggesting different values for the uncertainty of activity data and emission factors for most of the emission source categories. On the basis of this guidance, EU Member States and other EEA countries perform their own assessment of the uncertainty of reported data and provide an uncertainty analysis in the National Inventory Report to account for uncertainty per source category, as well as the total uncertainty of their national inventory.
Section (1.7) of the annual EU GHG inventory report considers the uncertainty evaluation, describing the methodology used to estimate it. The results suggest that the uncertainty level in the EU is about 6 % for total GHG emissions (including LULUCF).
Total EU-28 GHG emission trends are likely to be more accurate than individual absolute annual emission estimates, because the annual values are not independent of each other. The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in total GHG emission trends is approximately 4-5 %. For the EU, the trend uncertainty is estimated to be close to 1 %. Total GHG emission estimates are quite reliable and the limited number of interpolations used to build the indicator do not introduce much uncertainty at the EU level.
Uncertainties in the projections of GHG emissions can be significant but have not been assessed.
The IPCC AR4 (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 'Climate Change 2007') emphasises that:
Words in bold represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. Relevant terms are explained in the Box 'Treatment of uncertainty' in the introduction to the AR4 Synthesis Report. In particular, 'very likely' corresponds to a probability of occurrence higher than 90 %. This uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results).
The high confidence in the responsibility of anthropogenic GHG emissions for the warming of the climate system re-emphasises the relevance of monitoring and assessing GHG emissions trends in Europe.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenhouse-gas-emission-trends-6/assessment-1 or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 26 Apr 2024, 03:29 AM
Engineered by: EEA Web Team
Software updated on 26 September 2023 08:13 from version 23.8.18
Software version: EEA Plone KGS 23.9.14
Document Actions
Share with others