Annex 1 — Progress towards greenhouse gas emission targets: data and methodology

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A1.1 Reporting requirements for greenhouse gas emissions

The assessments of progress towards GHG emission targets presented in this report are based, for the most part, on information submitted by Member States under Regulation (EU) No 525/2013, the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR) (EU, 2013e).

The purposes of the reporting requirements stipulated in the MMR are to enable the EU to complete its reporting commitments under the UNFCCC, and to evaluate the projected progress of the EU and its Member States towards fulfilling their GHG mitigation commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, in annual reports prepared by the European Commission and the EEA.

Implementing provisions (EU, 2014d) provide a structure and format for the reporting of GHG inventories and approximated GHG inventories, information on policies and measures, GHG projections and the use of auctioning revenue and project credits, and they are used for the purposes of the LULUCF Decision (EU, 2013d). Furthermore, a delegated act (EU, 2014c) defines the substantive requirements for an EU inventory system to fulfil the obligations pursuant to Decision 19/CMP.1.

A1.2   Data sources for greenhouse gas emissions

The analysis presented in this report is based on several sets of GHG emission data.

A1.2.1  Historical trends in greenhouse gas emissions

GHG emission data for the period from 1990 to 2015 are official data reported by the EU and Member States under the UNFCCC in their corresponding GHG inventory reports (EEA, 2017a, 2017c). The EEA is responsible for the compilation of the EU GHG inventory and, together with the European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM) [1], it implements a quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) procedure (EC, 2013a) in order to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the inventories reported by Member States and used in this report. In 2016, a comprehensive review of GHG emission data took place under Article 19 of the MMR, in the context of the annual compliance cycle under the ESD. This concerned the years 2005, 2008-2010, 2013 and 2014. The year 2015 was reviewed in 2017 in the course of the annual review cycle under Article 19 of the MMR.

From 2015 onwards, Member States' GHG inventories are based on the use of global warming potentials (GWPs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (UNFCCC, 2013a). Thus all the emission estimates used in this report were calculated using GWPs from the IPCC's AR4.

A1.2.2  Approximated greenhouse gas emissions for 2016

Early 'approximated' (proxy) estimates of 2016 GHG emissions were reported by Member States to the European Commission under the MMR by 31 July 2017. These estimates were aggregated to EU level by the EEA (EEA, 2017b). Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania did not submit proxy GHG inventories. For those countries, proxies have been calculated by the EEA and the ETC/ACM.

A1.2.3  Greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union Emissions Trading System since 2005

Data relative to the EU ETS are used to analyse emission trends but also to determine the level of emissions covered under the ESD. For the years 2005-2012, ETS emissions include estimates to reflect the scope of the EU ETS for the third trading period. These data are publicly available from the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL) [2] and the EEA ETS data viewer (EEA, 2017f). The data considered in the analysis were extracted from the EUTL on 20 July 2017.

A1.2.4  Emissions covered under the Effort Sharing Decision

For the purpose of analysing emission trends in the ESD, historical ESD emissions are calculated using the latest GHG inventory data, from which ETS emissions, CO2 emissions from domestic aviation and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) emissions are subtracted. ETS emissions include EEA estimates to reflect the scope of the EU ETS for the third trading period for the years 2005-2012.

The ESD GHG emission data for the years 2013 and 2015 are consistent with the outcome of the 2016 and 2017 reviews of national GHG inventory data pursuant to Article 19 of the MMR. The data used by the European Commission to determine Member States' compliance under the ESD for 2013, 2014 and 2015 are made publicly available (EU, 2016, 2017a; EC, 2017b).

A1.2.5  Long-term historical trends in Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Decision emissions

For Figures 2.3 and 2.4, GHG emissions for the years 1990-2016 are split into those covered by the EU ETS and those covered by the ESD. These splits are based on the application of a percentage for each of the main source categories defined by the IPCC for the reporting of national GHG inventories, based on Member States' projections submitted in 2017. Projections for ETS and ESD are reported by source categories in Member States' submissions.

The 'industry' sector in Figure 2.4 aggregates ESD emissions of source categories 1.A1., 1.A.2, 1.B, 1.C and 2.

A1.2.6  Annual emission targets (annual emission allocations) under the Effort Sharing Decision for the period from 2013 to 2020

The AEA values for the period from 2013 to 2020 were defined in Commission Decision No 2013/162/EU (EU, 2013a) and adjusted in accordance with Commission Implementing Decision No 2013/634/EU (EU, 2013b), to reflect the change in scope of the EU ETS in 2013.

Following the 2016 comprehensive review of Member States' historical GHG inventory estimates, the AEAs for the years 2017-2020 were recalculated to reflect updates in methodologies for reporting of GHG inventories (see EU, 2017b). This recalculation ensures that the originally intended level of effort (as a percentage) is maintained for each Member State in the ESD. The recalculation also ensures consistency between the targets and the emissions reported by the Member States for compliance with the Effort Sharing Decision, as the current reported emissions already take into account the methodological updates.

Following, Commission Decision (EU) 2017/1471 (EU, EU, 2017b), 2005 ESD base-year emissions and AEA values for 2017-2020 used throughout this report differ from the values presented in previous reports.

A1.2.7  The 2005 Effort Sharing Decision base-year emissions

The 2005 'ESD base-year emissions' are calculated by the EEA, so as to be consistent with both:

  • the relative 2020 ESD target (as a percentage of 2005 emissions) defined in the ESD (EU, 2009c);
  • the absolute 2020 ESD target determined by the European Commission (EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b) [3].

The EEA calculates 2005 'ESD base-year emissions' as follows:

ESD base-year emissions = 2020 absolute target/(1 + % of 2020 ESD target).

These calculated ESD base-year emissions can also be used, for example, to compare relative changes in ESD emissions with 2020 ESD targets expressed by percentage.

In this report, calculated 2005 ESD base-year emissions are used to express the distance between ESD emissions and ESD targets in a normalised way (see, for example, Figures 3.1 and 3.2). The distance, calculated as the absolute difference between emissions and targets divided by 2005 base-year emissions, is expressed in percentage points (a proportion of 2005 base-year emissions). It is then directly comparable with targets and reductions as percentages of 2005 levels, and allows relevant comparisons between Member States.

These calculated 2005 ESD base-year emissions reflect the current scope of the EU ETS (EU, 2013b) and the outcome of the comprehensive ESD review in 2016 and may therefore differ, sometimes significantly, from actual historical 2005 emissions under the ESD based on the latest GHG inventories.

A1.2.8  Projections of greenhouse gas emissions

The report uses GHG projection data that are reported biennially by Member States under the MMR (EEA, 2017d). Mandatory reporting takes place every 2 years (2015, 2017, etc.). Member States must also report substantial changes to projections every other year (2014, 2016, etc.). In 2017 all 28 Member States and Norway submitted projections under the MMR.

Under the MMR, Member States report projections in two scenarios:

  • A WEM scenario, which considers the implementation of existing (already implemented) measures, can be applied.
  • If available, a WAM scenario, which also considers the implementation of additional measures (at planning stage), can be applied. In 2017, 18 Member States reported projections on the basis of such WAM scenarios: Belgium, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and the United Kingdom. Denmark submitted a WAM scenario that is equal to its WEM scenario. For the aggregation of a WAM scenario at EU level, Member States that have not reported a WAM scenario have been gap-filled using the WEM scenario.

An overview of projected emissions for both scenarios is presented in Table A1.1.

Member States reported projections for total and sectoral GHG emissions, as well as a split of these projections between those covered by the EU ETS and those covered by the ESD, by source categories. Although projections of total emissions are relevant to the assessment of the EU's progress towards its 20 % reduction target by 2020, the assessment of the projected progress of Member States towards their national 2020 targets, set under the ESD as part of the climate and energy package, is based on projection data on emissions not covered by the EU ETS, i.e. 'ESD projections'.

The EEA implements a QA/QC procedure to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the projections reported by Member States and used in this report. This procedure is described inElements of the Union system for policies and measures and projections and the quality assurance and control (QA/QC) programme as required under Regulation (EU) No 525/2013(EC, 2015a). If significant discrepancies can be observed between the inventory value for the reference year and that for the projected year, an alignment of the level of projections is performed. Such calibration is performed to match national projections with a common reference year for aggregated EU projections, which is the year 2015. In 2017 no such calibration took place.

Table A1.1Projected greenhouse gas emissions from Member States, Norway and Switzerland

GHG emission projections (Mt CO2-eq.)

WEM scenario

WAM scenario

EU-28

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

4 315

4 068

3 935

3 825

3 730

4 314

4 034

3 866

3 709

3 570

Energy supply

1 343

1 172

1 119

1 055

988

1 342

1 161

1 087

991

900

Manufacturing and construction industries

469

474

470

459

456

468

469

464

454

445

Transport

902

890

882

886

889

902

881

866

859

849

Residential and commercial

647

609

574

555

540

647

605

567

545

530

Industrial processes and process use

375

373

353

340

336

375

372

350

337

334

Agriculture

437

431

431

431

430

437

428

427

425

424

Waste

142

118

106

99

91

142

117

104

96

88

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

1 786

1 629

1 580

1 518

1 450

1 788

1 619

1 550

1 457

1 360

Effort Sharing Decision

2 515

2 423

2 338

2 289

2 262

2 511

2 399

2 299

2 234

2 191

Land use, land use change and forestry

-291

-234

-254

-233

-244

-292

-235

-251

-229

-240

International aviation

142

149

159

169

179

142

149

159

169

179

Austria

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

78.9

75.4

72.7

69.8

67.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

11.4

9.4

8.7

8.4

7.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

10.5

10.7

10.8

10.9

11.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

22.6

22.7

22.5

21.5

20.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

8.9

8.4

7.3

6.4

5.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

16.7

15.5

14.9

14.3

14.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.4

7.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

1.7

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

29.5

26.2

25.5

25.0

24.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

49.3

49.1

47.2

44.6

42.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-4.8

-7.7

-8.1

-4.6

-4.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Belgium

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

118.1

114.7

111.9

114.1

114.1

118.1

113.9

111.0

111.8

112.1

Energy supply

22.1

19.0

17.8

20.6

20.4

22.1

19.0

17.7

19.1

19.3

Manufacturing and construction industries

13.4

13.8

13.4

13.2

13.1

13.4

13.8

13.4

13.2

13.1

Transport

26.7

27.2

28.1

29.2

30.4

26.7

26.4

27.3

28.4

29.5

Residential and commercial

24.8

23.7

23.1

22.5

21.9

24.8

23.7

23.1

22.5

21.9

Industrial processes and process use

19.7

19.9

19.1

18.6

18.3

19.7

19.9

19.1

18.6

18.3

Agriculture

9.8

9.6

9.2

9.1

9.1

9.8

9.6

9.2

9.1

9.1

Waste

1.7

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.7

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.9

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

44.8

43.6

42.2

45.0

44.9

44.8

43.6

42.1

43.5

43.7

Effort Sharing Decision

73.3

71.0

69.7

69.2

69.2

73.3

70.2

68.9

68.3

68.3

Land use, land use change and forestry

-3.4

-3.7

-3.7

-3.8

-3.9

-3.4

-3.7

-3.7

-3.8

-3.9

Bulgaria

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

59.1

59.0

55.7

55.5

54.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

31.7

32.6

28.9

28.1

27.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

8.0

7.1

6.6

6.2

6.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

2.1

2.3

3.0

3.9

4.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

5.1

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

36.2

37.3

33.8

33.2

32.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

22.8

21.7

21.8

22.2

22.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-10.8

-11.3

-11.8

-12.3

-12.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Croatia

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

23.8

24.0

24.2

24.7

24.5

23.8

22.4

20.9

19.6

17.9

Energy supply

5.7

5.3

5.0

5.0

4.4

5.7

5.0

4.2

3.6

2.7

Manufacturing and construction industries

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

Transport

5.6

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.1

4.8

4.3

Residential and commercial

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.1

2.8

2.6

Industrial processes and process use

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

Agriculture

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

Waste

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.4

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

8.7

8.7

8.5

8.6

8.2

8.7

8.1

7.3

6.8

6.0

Effort Sharing Decision

15.1

15.2

15.6

16.0

16.3

15.0

14.3

13.5

12.7

11.8

Land use, land use change and forestry

-5.2

-3.1

-2.7

-2.4

-2.3

-5.2

-3.1

-2.7

-2.4

-2.3

Cyprus

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

7.8

6.9

7.1

7.2

7.4

8.2

6.0

6.0

5.8

5.5

Energy supply

2.4

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.7

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.6

Manufacturing and construction industries

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

Transport

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

Residential and commercial

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Industrial processes and process use

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

Agriculture

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Waste

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

4.1

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.8

4.4

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.2

Effort Sharing Decision

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

Land use, land use change and forestry

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

Czech Republic

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

124.8

122.5

113.6

108.8

101.6

124.7

122.1

113.2

107.8

100.0

Energy supply

57.7

54.7

47.2

45.5

42.5

57.7

54.7

47.2

45.5

42.5

Manufacturing and construction industries

10.1

9.7

9.4

9.9

9.9

10.1

9.7

9.3

9.9

9.8

Transport

17.1

18.6

18.1

15.9

12.8

17.1

18.3

17.8

15.6

12.6

Residential and commercial

11.2

11.3

11.0

10.6

10.7

11.2

11.3

11.0

10.6

10.7

Industrial processes and process use

15.3

14.8

14.2

13.2

12.6

15.3

14.8

14.2

13.2

12.6

Agriculture

8.4

8.6

9.1

9.7

9.9

8.2

8.6

9.0

9.3

9.5

Waste

5.1

4.9

4.6

4.1

3.3

5.1

4.9

4.7

3.8

2.4

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

67.2

60.5

53.7

54.4

52.1

67.2

60.5

53.6

54.3

52.0

Effort Sharing Decision

57.6

61.9

59.9

54.4

49.5

57.4

61.6

59.6

53.5

48.0

Land use, land use change and forestry

-6.2

-2.5

-3.5

-3.5

-3.9

-6.2

-3.0

-4.0

-3.9

-4.4

Denmark

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

48.4

44.8

48.7

50.9

49.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

13.6

11.6

15.4

17.7

16.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

3.9

3.5

3.8

4.0

4.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

12.3

12.3

12.2

12.0

11.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

5.0

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

10.4

10.6

10.6

10.7

10.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

1.2

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

15.8

13.5

17.8

20.3

19.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

32.5

31.1

30.8

30.5

29.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

3.5

-1.0

-1.6

-1.3

-2.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Estonia

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

18.0

19.3

19.0

17.0

16.4

18.0

18.8

17.9

15.2

14.2

Energy supply

12.3

12.8

12.2

10.0

9.5

12.3

12.5

11.8

9.4

8.7

Manufacturing and construction industries

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

Transport

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.3

Residential and commercial

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Industrial processes and process use

0.5

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.5

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

Agriculture

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

Waste

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

11.9

13.3

12.9

10.9

10.4

11.9

13.1

12.6

10.3

9.7

Effort Sharing Decision

6.1

6.0

6.1

6.1

6.0

6.1

5.7

5.3

4.9

4.6

Land use, land use change and forestry

-2.4

-2.1

-1.9

-1.7

-1.5

-2.4

-2.1

-1.9

-1.7

-1.5

Finland

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

55.7

56.3

49.8

48.8

47.4

55.7

56.2

47.2

44.1

42.4

Energy supply

18.1

19.3

14.2

14.3

13.8

18.1

19.3

13.5

13.2

12.8

Manufacturing and construction industries

7.2

7.0

6.6

6.1

5.7

7.2

7.0

6.5

6.0

5.5

Transport

11.1

10.8

10.3

10.0

10.0

11.1

10.7

8.8

7.2

6.6

Residential and commercial

4.7

4.6

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.7

4.6

4.3

4.0

3.9

Industrial processes and process use

5.9

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.4

5.9

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.3

Agriculture

6.6

6.6

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.6

6.6

6.4

6.4

6.4

Waste

2.2

1.6

1.3

1.1

1.0

2.2

1.6

1.3

1.1

1.0

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

26.1

27.3

22.3

22.2

21.5

26.1

27.3

21.5

21.1

20.5

Effort Sharing Decision

29.4

28.8

27.4

26.4

25.7

29.4

28.7

25.5

22.8

21.8

Land use, land use change and forestry

-8.6

-8.4

-2.0

-1.9

-8.6

-8.6

-8.4

-2.0

-1.9

-8.6

France

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

457.1

430.1

407.5

396.1

390.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

46.3

57.2

57.0

56.1

56.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

50.5

51.9

49.3

48.3

47.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

132.5

116.4

112.8

112.4

114.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

87.6

71.1

63.8

59.4

55.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

44.5

43.3

37.4

34.6

33.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

78.4

75.3

74.3

73.2

72.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

17.4

15.0

12.9

12.1

10.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

99.6

107.2

105.3

104.5

104.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

353.0

318.2

297.4

286.9

280.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-35.8

-51.9

-52.5

-55.7

-58.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Germany

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

895.2

816.4

793.1

734.5

669.3

894.1

805.6

760.2

682.0

592.3

Energy supply

347.4

290.7

302.1

274.7

227.9

346.5

285.0

279.6

239.3

183.3

Manufacturing and construction industries

113.2

113.1

108.1

101.3

97.5

112.8

110.8

106.3

100.2

92.1

Transport

160.9

159.1

152.7

150.0

148.9

160.8

158.4

149.7

139.0

127.7

Residential and commercial

134.4

118.3

102.5

90.5

80.4

134.6

118.6

101.2

88.0

77.3

Industrial processes and process use

61.4

60.3

54.4

47.0

45.1

61.4

60.1

52.4

46.9

44.8

Agriculture

67.0

66.3

66.3

65.1

64.5

67.0

64.2

64.3

63.1

62.5

Waste

10.9

8.6

7.0

5.9

5.0

10.9

8.5

6.6

5.5

4.6

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

444.0

387.7

393.6

360.5

311.3

445.7

384.4

375.3

330.5

269.0

Effort Sharing Decision

449.0

426.5

397.3

371.9

355.9

446.1

419.0

382.8

349.4

321.3

Land use, land use change and forestry

-14.6

29.1

11.2

19.2

18.7

-14.6

29.1

11.2

19.2

18.7

Greece

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

95.7

91.5

93.4

86.0

83.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

42.0

33.5

35.2

26.5

23.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

5.2

5.9

6.3

6.9

7.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

17.1

19.2

18.7

18.2

17.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

6.7

7.9

7.9

8.0

7.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

11.9

11.2

11.4

12.2

12.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

8.3

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

4.5

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

49.8

42.0

44.5

37.2

35.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

45.5

48.9

48.3

48.3

48.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

3.1

-1.7

-1.2

-0.7

-0.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Hungary

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

61.1

58.0

59.2

58.8

59.5

61.1

57.9

58.9

58.3

58.8

Energy supply

14.7

12.9

13.0

12.1

12.2

14.7

12.9

13.0

12.1

12.2

Manufacturing and construction industries

4.3

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.3

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

Transport

12.2

11.7

13.8

14.9

15.4

12.2

11.7

13.7

14.7

15.1

Residential and commercial

12.1

10.7

9.7

8.8

8.0

12.1

10.7

9.7

8.8

8.0

Industrial processes and process use

7.3

7.0

7.0

7.3

7.9

7.3

7.0

7.0

7.3

7.9

Agriculture

6.7

7.4

7.7

7.9

8.1

6.7

7.4

7.7

7.9

8.1

Waste

3.8

4.0

3.6

3.3

3.0

3.8

4.0

3.4

2.9

2.6

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

19.6

18.9

19.6

19.3

20.1

19.6

18.9

19.6

19.3

20.1

Effort Sharing Decision

41.5

39.1

39.6

39.5

39.3

41.5

39.0

39.3

38.9

38.7

Land use, land use change and forestry

-6.5

-3.4

-3.3

-3.2

-3.1

-6.5

-4.2

-4.8

-3.8

-4.2

Ireland

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

59.9

61.6

65.4

66.5

69.2

59.9

59.1

62.3

62.9

64.8

Energy supply

11.8

10.2

11.6

12.8

14.6

11.8

8.7

9.6

10.5

11.6

Manufacturing and construction industries

4.5

5.3

5.4

5.6

6.2

4.5

5.2

5.2

5.4

6.0

Transport

11.8

13.3

15.1

14.9

14.8

11.8

13.1

14.8

14.7

14.6

Residential and commercial

8.4

8.7

9.1

9.3

9.6

8.4

8.3

8.6

8.6

8.8

Industrial processes and process use

3.1

3.2

3.5

3.7

4.1

3.1

3.2

3.5

3.7

4.1

Agriculture

19.2

20.2

20.1

19.6

19.5

19.2

20.0

20.0

19.4

19.4

Waste

1.0

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

1.0

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

16.8

15.9

17.6

19.3

21.9

16.8

14.3

15.5

16.8

18.8

Effort Sharing Decision

43.1

45.6

47.7

47.1

47.3

43.1

44.8

46.8

46.0

46.0

Land use, land use change and forestry

4.3

4.6

6.0

7.5

7.6

4.3

4.6

6.0

7.5

7.6

Italy

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

433.0

425.9

407.1

392.1

384.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

113.4

107.2

100.0

85.5

81.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

52.6

52.5

51.5

52.5

53.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

106.0

104.4

102.7

103.5

102.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

82.2

82.6

79.3

77.7

75.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

30.0

33.5

29.9

30.3

30.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

30.0

30.5

30.6

30.6

30.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

18.8

15.2

13.1

12.0

9.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

156.2

161.0

152.7

140.1

132.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

274.7

262.7

251.9

249.2

248.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-36.2

-24.4

-39.7

-41.5

-43.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Latvia

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.2

12.6

11.4

11.4

11.5

11.6

12.0

Energy supply

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.9

1.7

1.3

0.9

1.3

Manufacturing and construction industries

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.4

1.6

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.4

1.4

Transport

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.4

Residential and commercial

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.2

Industrial processes and process use

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Agriculture

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.4

3.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.3

Waste

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.8

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.4

Effort Sharing Decision

9.0

9.2

9.5

9.7

9.8

9.0

9.1

9.3

9.5

9.5

Land use, land use change and forestry

1.5

2.7

2.9

3.4

3.4

1.5

2.7

2.9

3.4

3.4

Lithuania

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

20.2

21.3

21.4

22.1

22.9

19.8

18.9

18.2

17.9

18.2

Energy supply

3.5

3.7

3.7

4.0

4.3

3.2

2.4

2.1

1.9

2.0

Manufacturing and construction industries

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.0

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

Transport

5.2

5.6

5.9

6.3

6.7

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.9

Residential and commercial

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

Industrial processes and process use

3.5

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

Agriculture

4.7

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.2

4.7

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.2

Waste

1.0

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

1.0

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

7.0

7.9

7.9

8.3

8.6

6.7

6.1

5.7

5.5

5.5

Effort Sharing Decision

13.4

13.6

13.7

14.0

14.5

13.3

13.0

12.7

12.7

12.9

Land use, land use change and forestry

-7.9

-8.0

-8.0

-8.0

-8.0

-8.5

-8.7

-8.8

-9.0

-9.2

Luxembourg

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

10.3

9.8

9.7

9.5

9.3

10.3

9.6

9.1

8.5

8.0

Energy supply

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

Manufacturing and construction industries

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

Transport

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.1

4.7

4.3

Residential and commercial

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.1

Industrial processes and process use

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

Agriculture

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Waste

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

Effort Sharing Decision

8.6

8.4

8.3

8.1

8.0

8.6

8.2

7.7

7.2

6.7

Land use, land use change and forestry

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

Malta

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

2.2

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

0.9

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Netherlands

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

197.9

172.1

175.5

171.1

159.5

197.9

170.7

172.2

168.3

154.6

Energy supply

72.1

52.3

58.6

57.6

48.9

72.1

52.3

58.2

59.0

48.9

Manufacturing and construction industries

25.0

24.2

24.3

23.2

21.6

25.0

24.0

24.2

22.9

21.3

Transport

31.8

30.4

30.7

30.8

31.5

31.8

30.4

29.8

28.9

29.0

Residential and commercial

36.1

33.2

30.8

29.1

27.0

36.1

31.9

28.9

27.0

24.7

Industrial processes and process use

10.8

10.8

10.4

10.2

10.6

10.8

10.8

10.4

10.2

10.7

Agriculture

18.7

18.8

18.7

18.7

18.6

18.7

18.8

18.7

18.7

18.7

Waste

3.4

2.5

2.0

1.6

1.3

3.4

2.5

2.0

1.6

1.3

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

97.6

77.6

84.2

82.7

73.2

97.6

77.4

83.6

83.7

72.9

Effort Sharing Decision

100.3

94.6

91.3

88.5

86.3

100.3

93.2

88.6

84.5

81.7

Land use, land use change and forestry

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

Norway

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

53.9

51.8

50.5

48.3

46.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

19.0

18.7

18.5

17.3

16.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

13.2

12.7

12.1

11.4

10.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

3.5

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

8.5

8.3

8.0

8.0

7.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

25.5

25.6

25.4

24.3

23.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

27.1

24.8

23.7

22.5

21.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-26.6

-23.5

-22.6

-21.3

-19.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Note: Reported projections not quality checked by EEA. Norway reported GHG projections until 2030; therefore, the time series to year 2035 was extended by linear extrapolation of the trend (2025-2030) by the ETC/ACM

 

 

 

 

 

Poland

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

393.6

386.4

373.7

358.8

358.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

185.2

176.9

163.9

147.6

147.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

30.3

27.6

29.8

30.1

30.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

47.7

50.8

51.7

55.8

55.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

56.6

53.2

49.0

45.3

45.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

32.4

34.3

35.2

35.5

35.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

30.6

33.3

34.2

34.8

34.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

10.6

10.2

9.9

9.7

9.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

204.8

196.2

187.2

172.7

172.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

188.6

190.1

186.3

186.0

186.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-26.7

-22.3

-16.8

-13.0

-13.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Portugal

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

70.5

63.0

58.7

55.8

52.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

19.5

13.6

11.1

9.4

7.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.8

6.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

15.7

15.0

14.9

14.7

14.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

6.1

6.6

5.7

6.0

5.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

8.5

8.1

7.9

7.2

6.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

9.2

8.3

7.6

7.0

6.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

27.2

22.0

19.9

18.5

16.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

42.8

40.5

38.3

36.8

34.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-10.0

-7.6

-7.9

-8.3

-8.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Romania

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

116.5

118.2

119.0

126.3

130.9

116.5

116.3

116.2

122.9

126.0

Energy supply

41.1

38.8

34.7

37.8

38.2

41.1

38.5

34.4

37.6

38.0

Manufacturing and construction industries

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.8

12.5

12.7

13.3

14.0

14.1

Transport

15.7

17.8

19.3

20.3

20.9

15.7

17.4

18.9

19.9

20.5

Residential and commercial

10.8

11.5

12.3

13.2

13.9

10.8

11.3

12.0

12.5

13.3

Industrial processes and process use

11.9

12.7

13.9

14.8

15.6

11.9

12.7

13.9

14.8

15.6

Agriculture

18.7

19.2

20.6

21.9

23.4

18.7

18.4

19.1

19.9

20.6

Waste

5.8

5.2

4.6

4.3

4.1

5.8

5.2

4.6

4.3

4.0

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

42.3

41.7

39.1

42.9

44.3

42.3

41.5

39.0

42.9

43.9

Effort Sharing Decision

74.2

76.5

79.9

83.4

86.6

74.2

74.7

77.2

79.9

82.1

Land use, land use change and forestry

-18.3

-17.0

-18.1

-16.5

-16.8

-18.3

-16.0

-12.8

-9.9

-10.6

Slovakia

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

41.1

40.3

40.4

40.7

40.9

40.9

38.9

38.5

38.6

38.7

Energy supply

8.9

8.0

7.9

7.7

7.5

8.8

7.5

7.4

7.2

7.0

Manufacturing and construction industries

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.2

7.1

7.2

7.2

Transport

6.7

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.2

6.7

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.3

Residential and commercial

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.6

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

Industrial processes and process use

9.1

8.9

8.9

9.2

9.6

9.1

8.8

8.8

9.0

9.3

Agriculture

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

Waste

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

21.2

20.2

20.3

20.6

20.8

21.1

19.5

19.6

19.9

20.2

Effort Sharing Decision

19.9

20.2

20.0

20.2

20.1

19.8

19.3

18.9

18.7

18.6

Land use, land use change and forestry

-5.2

-5.3

-4.8

-4.5

-4.7

-5.2

-5.3

-4.8

-4.5

-4.7

Slovenia

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

16.7

17.9

17.2

16.3

15.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

4.8

5.8

5.1

4.3

3.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.2

4.7

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

6.0

7.2

6.7

6.2

5.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

10.7

10.7

10.4

10.1

9.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-5.6

-5.6

-5.6

-5.6

-5.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Spain

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

335.7

333.0

324.4

330.5

341.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

90.8

91.0

76.8

78.2

80.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

41.2

45.8

49.4

47.4

49.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

83.7

87.1

88.8

95.7

102.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

39.8

39.8

41.1

42.7

44.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

30.8

32.5

33.0

32.0

31.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

36.0

28.4

27.7

27.3

26.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

13.5

8.3

7.5

7.3

7.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

136.8

141.0

130.1

128.8

133.2

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

196.3

189.1

191.0

198.1

204.9

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-38.8

-33.0

-30.9

-29.7

-29.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Sweden

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

53.7

49.9

47.7

45.6

43.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Energy supply

9.9

10.3

10.4

10.0

9.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

7.6

7.7

7.2

6.9

6.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Transport

18.2

15.4

14.3

13.6

13.1

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Residential and commercial

3.3

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Industrial processes and process use

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.0

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Agriculture

6.9

6.4

6.1

5.9

5.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Waste

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

19.2

19.7

19.7

19.2

18.4

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

34.0

29.7

27.5

26.0

24.8

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

-50.5

-43.3

-44.3

-42.2

-40.5

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Switzerland

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

51.5

47.1

43.5

40.0

NE

50.1

43.4

37.4

31.6

NE

Energy supply

4.7

4.8

5.6

6.3

NE

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

NE

Manufacturing and construction industries

5.9

5.6

5.2

4.8

NE

5.6

5.1

4.4

3.8

NE

Transport

15.0

13.3

11.8

10.2

NE

14.0

11.0

8.9

6.7

NE

Residential and commercial

15.0

13.0

11.0

9.3

NE

15.0

12.5

9.9

7.8

NE

Industrial processes and process use

4.1

3.7

3.3

2.8

NE

4.1

3.6

3.2

2.6

NE

Agriculture

6.1

6.0

6.0

6.0

NE

6.1

5.9

5.7

5.5

NE

Waste

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

NE

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

NE

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Effort Sharing Decision

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

NE

Land use, land use change and forestry

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

NE

1.3

1.9

2.6

2.5

NE

United Kingdom

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Total GHG emissions

508.8

436.2

405.3

403.1

401.7

508.8

427.5

396.6

378.0

366.3

Energy supply

153.8

91.1

74.2

77.4

77.9

153.8

91.1

74.0

60.6

49.1

Manufacturing and construction industries

51.2

52.5

50.5

47.2

44.9

51.2

51.3

49.1

45.8

44.3

Transport

114.8

114.0

110.5

108.0

106.9

114.8

108.6

105.2

103.0

102.3

Residential and commercial

92.6

95.4

93.5

97.4

100.9

92.6

93.4

91.6

95.6

99.7

Industrial processes and process use

33.7

26.6

22.5

19.2

17.4

33.7

26.6

22.4

19.2

17.3

Agriculture

43.9

42.4

41.2

41.2

41.2

43.9

42.4

41.2

41.2

41.2

Waste

18.9

14.2

13.1

12.6

12.4

18.9

14.2

13.1

12.6

12.4

Emissions Trading System (stationary installations)

188.0

124.8

107.1

110.2

109.5

188.4

124.5

106.4

92.8

80.6

Effort Sharing Decision

319.0

309.4

296.1

290.8

289.9

318.7

301.2

288.2

283.1

283.5

Land use, land use change and forestry

-11.7

-12.4

-10.8

-8.4

-6.3

-11.7

-12.4

-10.8

-8.4

-6.3

Notes: Projections for emissions under the Emissions Trading System concern stationary installations only (aviation not included).

Total GHG emissions do not include emissions from international aviation or net emissions or removals from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF).

GHG, greenhouse gas; NE, not estimated; WAM, with additional measures; WEM, with existing measures.

Common reporting format sector mapping: Energy supply = 1A1 + 1B + 1C, Manufacturing and construction industries = 1A2, Transport = 1A3, Residential, commercial and other = 1A4 (including energy-related emissions from Agriculture, forestry and fishing) + 1A5, Industrial processes = 2, Agriculture = 3, Waste = 5, LULUCF = 4

Source: EEA, 2017d.

A1.3   Tracking progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision

The progress of Member States towards their targets under the ESD is assessed by comparing ESD GHG emission levels with the relevant annual targets under the ESD. The assessment does not take into account the possible use of flexibility options as permitted under the ESD and is therefore not an assessment of compliance under the ESD.

The assessment of current progress towards 2015 ESD targets is based on a comparison between ESD GHG emissions and ESD emission targets (AEAs) for 2015:

  • Member States with historical emissions below their annual ESD emission target are considered to be currently on track towards their targets under the ESD.
  • In contrast, Member States with historical emissions higher than their ESD emission targets are considered not to be currently on track towards their targets under the ESD.

The assessment of projected progress towards 2020 ESD targets is based on a comparison between projected domestic ESD GHG emissions in the WEM scenario in 2020 and ESD targets (AEAs) for 2020:

  • Member States with WEM projections lower than their 2020 target are projected to be on track towards their targets.
  • Member States with WEM projections higher than their 2020 target are projected not to be on track towards their targets.

All the data used for this assessment (ESD GHG emissions and absolute annual ESD emission targets (AEAs)) are consistent with the scope of the EU ETS for the period from 2013 to 2020.

Table A1.2Current progress towards 2015 and 2016 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emission targets

Member State

2005

2015 progress under the ESD

2016 progress under the ESD (approximated)

 

Base-year emissions

ESD target

ESD emissions

Absolute gap

Relative gap

ESD target

ESD emissions

Absolute gap

Relative gap

 

Mt CO2-eq.

Mt CO2-eq.

Mt CO2-eq.

Mt CO2-eq.

% (share of 2005 base year)

Mt CO2-eq.

Mt CO2-eq.

Mt CO2-eq.

% (share of 2005 base year)

Austria

56.8

51.5

49.3

2.2

3.9

51.0

50.2

0.8

1.5

Belgium

80.3

75.3

72.7

2.6

3.2

73.8

74.5

-0.7

-0.9

Bulgaria

22.1

27.5

25.4

2.1

9.6

27.7

25.0

2.8

12.6

Croatia

17.4

20.0

15.6

4.4

25.5

20.2

14.3

5.9

34.0

Cyprus

4.2

5.9

4.1

1.9

44.6

5.9

4.2

1.7

41.5

Czech Republic

61.7

64.0

61.3

2.7

4.3

64.7

58.1

6.6

10.6

Denmark

40.1

35.0

32.5

2.5

6.2

34.1

32.3

1.8

4.4

Estonia

5.4

6.3

6.1

0.2

3.7

6.4

5.8

0.5

9.8

Finland

33.9

30.8

29.9

0.9

2.7

30.3

31.3

-1.0

-3.0

France

398.2

384.4

353.0

31.4

7.9

379.4

357.0

22.4

5.6

Germany

477.8

459.1

444.1

15.1

3.2

452.4

450.4

2.0

0.4

Greece

62.6

59.6

45.4

14.2

22.6

59.9

46.5

13.5

21.5

Hungary

48.0

52.6

41.4

11.2

23.3

53.8

42.1

11.6

24.2

Ireland

47.1

44.6

43.0

1.6

3.4

43.5

44.5

-1.0

-2.2

Italy

334.5

304.2

273.3

31.0

9.3

302.3

277.5

24.8

7.4

Latvia

8.5

9.4

9.0

0.4

5.1

9.5

8.9

0.7

7.8

Lithuania

13.3

13.7

13.3

0.4

3.1

14.0

13.0

1.0

7.7

Luxembourg

10.1

9.1

8.6

0.5

5.26

8.9

8.5

0.4

4.21

Malta

1.1

1.2

1.3

-0.1

-12.2

1.2

1.3

-0.2

-16.0

Netherlands

127.8

118.4

101.1

17.3

13.5

116.1

102.7

13.5

10.5

Poland

180.0

196.1

186.8

9.4

5.2

197.4

192.8

4.6

2.5

Portugal

48.6

49.9

40.6

9.2

19.0

50.1

40.4

9.7

20.0

Romania

75.5

79.3

74.6

4.7

6.3

81.1

72.7

8.4

11.2

Slovakia

23.0

24.7

20.1

4.7

20.3

25.1

19.7

5.4

23.4

Slovenia

11.8

12.4

10.7

1.7

14.1

12.4

11.0

1.4

11.6

Spain

236.0

223.7

196.2

27.6

11.7

221.8

197.8

24.0

10.2

Sweden

43.5

40.4

33.9

6.5

15.0

39.8

33.7

6.1

13.9

United Kingdom

417.8

349.7

326.0

23.7

5.7

345.2

324.4

20.8

5.0

EU

2 887

2 749

2 519

230

8.0

2 728

2 503

226

7.8

Notes:     Distances to targets (i.e. surpluses of emission allocations compared with existing emissions) are calculated as 'ESD target' – 'ESD GHG emissions'. A positive value indicates a surplus of AEAs (emissions lower than the target) while a negative value indicates a shortfall of AEAs (emissions lower than the target).

See Section A1.2 in Annex 1 with regard to the calculation of '2005 base-year emissions' by the EEA.

Sources: EEA, 2017a, 2017c, 2017f; EU, 2009c, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b, based on Member States' submissions.

Table A1.3 Projected progress towards 2020 Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) targets

Member State

2005

2020 ESD target

Projected progress with existing measures by 2020

Projected progress with additional measures by 2020

 

Base-year emissions

Relative target to 2020

Absolute target

ESD emissions

Absolute gap

Relative gap

ESD emissions

Absolute gap

Relative gap

 

Mt CO2-eq.

%

Mt
CO2-eq.

Mt
CO2-eq.

Mt
CO2-eq.

% (share of 2005 base year)

Mt
CO2-eq.

Mt
CO2-eq.

% (share of 2005 base year)

Austria

56.8

-16.0

47.8

49.1

-1.4

-2.4

49.1

-1.4

-2.4

Belgium

80.3

-15.0

68.2

71.0

-2.8

-3.5

70.2

-2.0

-2.5

Bulgaria

22.1

20.0

26.5

21.7

4.8

21.7

21.7

4.8

21.7

Croatia

17.4

11.0

19.3

15.2

4.1

23.5

14.3

5.0

28.9

Cyprus

4.2

-5.0

4.0

3.6

0.4

9.5

3.6

0.4

9.5

Czech Republic

61.7

9.0

67.2

61.9

5.3

8.5

61.6

5.6

9.0

Denmark

40.1

-20.0

32.1

31.1

0.9

2.3

31.1

0.9

2.3

Estonia

5.4

11.0

6.0

6.0

0.0

0.3

5.7

0.3

6.1

Finland

33.9

-16.0

28.5

28.8

-0.3

-0.7

28.7

-0.1

-0.4

France

398.2

-14.0

342.5

318.2

24.3

6.1

318.2

24.3

6.1

Germany

477.8

-14.0

410.9

426.5

-15.6

-3.3

419.0

-8.1

-1.7

Greece

62.6

-4.0

60.0

48.9

11.1

17.8

48.9

11.1

17.8

Hungary

48.0

10.0

52.8

39.1

13.7

28.6

39.0

13.8

28.7

Ireland

47.1

-20.0

37.7

45.6

-8.0

-17.0

44.8

-7.2

-15.2

Italy

334.5

-13.0

291.0

262.7

28.3

8.5

262.7

28.3

8.5

Latvia

8.5

17.0

10.0

9.2

0.8

9.2

9.1

0.9

10.5

Lithuania

13.3

15.0

15.2

13.6

1.7

12.6

13.0

2.2

16.9

Luxembourg

10.1

-20.0

8.1

8.4

-0.3

-2.6

8.2

-0.1

-0.9

Malta

1.1

5.0

1.2

1.3

-0.1

-11.5

1.3

-0.1

-11.5

Netherlands

127.8

-16.0

107.4

94.6

12.8

10.0

93.2

14.1

11.0

Poland

180.0

14.0

205.2

190.1

15.1

8.4

190.1

15.1

8.4

Portugal

48.6

1.0

49.1

40.5

8.6

17.6

40.5

8.6

17.7

Romania

75.5

19.0

89.8

76.5

13.3

17.6

74.7

15.1

20.0

Slovakia

23.0

13.0

25.9

20.2

5.8

25.2

19.3

6.6

28.7

Slovenia

11.8

4.0

12.3

10.7

1.6

13.3

10.7

1.6

13.3

Spain

236.0

-10.0

212.4

189.1

23.3

9.9

189.1

23.3

9.9

Sweden

43.5

-17.0

36.1

29.7

6.4

14.8

29.7

6.4

14.8

United Kingdom

417.8

-16.0

350.9

309.4

41.5

9.9

301.2

49.8

11.9

EU-28

2 887.1

 

2 618.2

2 422.8

195.3

6.8

2-398.8

219.3

7.6

Notes: Distances to targets are calculated as 'ESD target' – 'ESD GHG emissions'. A positive value indicates a surplus of AEAs (emissions lower than the target), while a negative value indicates a shortfall of AEAs (emissions lower than the target).

See Section A1.2 in Annex 1 with regard to the calculation of '2005 base-year emissions' by the EEA.

Sources: EEA, 2017d; EU, 2009c, 2013a, 2013b, based on Member States' submissions.

A1.4   Use of flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Decision

The assessment of progress towards the ESD targets does not take into account the possible use of flexibility options as permitted under the ESD, which can be used by Member States for compliance under the ESD [4]. If these are taken into account, it is apparent that only Malta will need to buy additional AEAs from other Member States or use international project credits to comply in the years 2013 to 2015.

Taking into account WEM emissions, for all countries other than Ireland and Malta the use of the flexibility to carry over AEAs that have not been used in previous years will be sufficient for compliance in the period 2013-2020.

A1.5   Annual and cumulative gaps between emissions and Effort Sharing Decision targets

Table A1.4 Distance between historical or projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

Table A 1.4

Notes: A positive value (green shading) indicates a surplus of AEAs (emissions lower than the target), while a negative value (red shading) indicates a shortfall of AEAs (emissions lower than the target). The darker the colour, the larger the gap (red) or the surplus (green).

The calculations do not take into account any possible use of the flexibilities provided under the ESD (such as trading ESD emission allocations or buying international certificates). For this calculation, recalculated annual emission allocations (AEAs) for the years 2017-2020 were considered (EC, 2017h).

The data are based on ESD emissions for 2013, 2014 and 2015 as determined after the 2016 comprehensive review of national GHG inventories, approximated inventory data for 2016 and projections for the period 2017-2020. No national approximated GHG data were available for three Member States (Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania). For these, the EEA GHG emission proxy was used instead. For the aggregation of projections in the 'with additional measures' (WAM) scenario at EU level, WAM projections of Member States which did not report a WAM scenario have been gap-filled using the 'with existing measures' (WEM) scenario projections.

Sources: EEA, 2017a 2017c 2017c2017d, 2017f; EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b, based on Member States' submissions.

Table A1.5 Cumulative gaps between historical and projected Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions and annual ESD targets, 2013-2020

Table A 1.5

Notes: A positive value (green shading) indicates a surplus of AEAs (emissions lower than the target), while a negative value (red shading) indicates a shortfall of AEAs (emissions lower than the target). The darker the colour, the larger the gap (red) or the surplus (green).

The calculation of the cumulative gap takes only previous years' gaps into account, and does not take into account any possible use of the flexibilities provided under the ESD (such as trading ESD emission allocations or buying international certificates). For this calculation, recalculated annual emission allocations (AEAs) for the years 2017-2020 were considered (EC, 2017h).

The data are based on ESD emissions for 2013, 2014 and 2015 as determined after the 2016 comprehensive review of national GHG inventories, approximated inventory data for 2016 and projections for the period 2017-2020. No national approximated GHG data were available for three Member States (Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania). For these, the EEA GHG emission proxy was used instead. For the aggregation of projections in the 'with additional measures' (WAM) scenario at EU level, WAM projections of Member States which did not report a WAM scenario have been gap-filled using the 'with existing measures' (WEM) scenario projections.

Sources: EEA, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c, 2017d, 2017f; EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b, based on Member States' submissions.

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Footnotes


[1] The ETC/ACM is a consortium of European institutes contracted by the EEA to carry out specific tasks in the fields of air pollution and climate change mitigation. > Back

[2] The EUTL automatically checks, records and authorises all transactions in the EU ETS. > Back

[3] Following the 2016 comprehensive review of Member States' historical GHG inventory estimates, the 2005 ESD base-year emissions and the AEAs for the years 2017-2020 were recalculated (see b). Therefore, the 2005 ESD base-year emissions used throughout this report differ from the values presented in previous reports. As recent inventory updates lowered emission estimates for most EU Member States, the absolute emission targets correspondingly decreased for most EU Member States. > Back

[4] A Member State can carry forward (i.e. 'borrow') an emission allocation of up to 5 % from the following year, during the period from 2013 to 2019, in order to guarantee compliance. A Member State can also carry over from a past year any surplus emission allocations. It is also possible to use other flexibilities under the ESD, such as buying AEAs from other Member States or using international project credits under the Kyoto Protocol up to a certain limit. > Back

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