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< Previous: 2. Progress of the European Union towards its greenhouse gas emission targets |
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3.2 Projected progress towards targets under the Effort Sharing Decision. |
In order to achieve the EU's objective of a 20 % reduction in total GHG emissions by 2020, compared with 1990, the ESD (EU, 2009c) sets national targets for each Member State on GHG emissions not covered by the ETS (EU, 2009d) [1]. National ESD targets cover sectors such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste management. Altogether, these sectors account for almost 60 % of total EU GHG emissions. Mitigation actions take place at national level, through a mix of EU-driven policies and measures and national initiatives. ESD targets range from 20 % reductions (Denmark, Ireland and Luxembourg) to 20 % allowed increases (Bulgaria), compared with 2005 baseyear levels. Taken together, the aggregated ESD targets for 2020 represent a 9.3 % reduction at EU level compared with 2005 baseyear levels. The ESD also sets annual targets for the period 2013-2020 to monitor progress across the EU, allow for corrective action and ultimately ensure the attainment of the EU's GHG emission target by 2020.
In 2015, all but one Member State exhibited ESD emissions that were below their 2015 targets (see Figure 3.1). The largest overachievements in 2015 in absolute terms were made in France (31.4 MtCO2e.), Italy (31.0 MtCO2e.) and Spain (27.6 MtCO2e.). Ten Member States (Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden) passed their 2015 ESD target by more than 10 percentage points. Malta's emissions remained above its 2015 ESD targets by 0.1 million AEAs, which is equal to a gap of 12 %. Based on approximated estimates of ESD emissions for 2016, all but four Member States (Belgium, Finland, Ireland and Malta) are expected to have ESD emissions below their targets for that year.
To comply with the ESD, Malta has been balancing its surplus emissions by AEA purchases from Bulgaria, which had overachieved with respect to its targets.
Sources: EEA, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c; EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b.
The latest projections reported by Member States in 2017 show that there are diverse expectations with regard to ESD emission trends for the period 2016-2020. For many Member States, projections are consistent with past trends and show decreases in ESD emissions between 2016 and 2020.
Based on the latest national projections (submitted in 2017) for the period 2017-2020, 20 Member States expect that their ESD emissions will stay below their annual targets under the ESD in every year from 2017 to 2020, on the basis of the WEM scenario (see Figure 3.2).
Conversely, for eight Member States (Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta), national projections suggest that emissions could exceed their AEAs (i.e. annual ESD targets) for one or several years between 2017 and 2020 (see Table A.1.4 in Annex 1). Most of these eight Member States have rather ambitious 2020 targets under the ESD, ranging from + 5 % to - 20 % emission changes, compared with 2005 baseyear levels.
Sources: EEA, 2017d; EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b.
ESD emission targets, expressed in quantities of AEAs, can be considered as annual emission budgets that can be partly transferred from one year to another, as well as between Member States, under certain rules defined in the ESD. It is therefore possible to define an overall emission budget under the ESD for the whole period 2013-2020 for each Member State and at EU level. As historical and projected ESD emissions at EU level are below ESD targets, an overall surplus of between 1 700 and 1 800 million AEAs is expected by 2020 at EU level (see Section A1.5 in Annex 1).
At Member State level, the size of the expected cumulative AEA surpluses or deficits by 2020 differ greatly (see Figure 3.3). The largest cumulative surpluses are projected for the United Kingdom, Italy and France. Only two Member States (Ireland and Malta) expect a deficit of AEAs over the whole period. For Ireland this is so even in the case of a WAM scenario that considers additional measures. Currently planned or further additional measures will have to be implemented in due time, or these countries will need to purchase AEAs from other Member States or international project credits.
Notes: A positive value represents a surplus of annual emission allocations (AEAs). A negative value represents a shortfall of AEAs. Seventeen Member States submitted a WAM scenario. For the other Member States (Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden), the WEM scenario is shown instead. Denmark submitted a WAM scenario that was identical to its WEM scenario.
Sources: EEA,2017a, 2017b, 2017c, 2017d; EU, 2013a, 2013b, 2017b.
Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Ireland and Luxembourg, and Malta, for which national projections suggest that ESD emissions will exceed ESD targets by 2020, can still meet their obligations under the ESD by enhancing national efforts to reduce their domestic emissions to levels below ESD target levels by 2020, as well as by using the flexibility provided for under the ESD (see Table A3.4), as described below:
Table 3.1 summarises the minimum conditions required to stay within the 2013-2020 ESD budget. Overall, based on national projections submitted in 2017, a net surplus of between 1 700 and 1 800 million AEAs (depending on the scenario considered) could accumulate by 2020 if all unused AEAs were carried over to subsequent years within the compliance period from 2013 to 2020. This projected surplus is higher than that calculated in the 2016 assessment (1 600 to 1 760 million AEAs) (EEA, 2016). The quantity of surplus AEAs would be more than sufficient to cover the potential deficits observed or expected in a limited number of Member States.
So far, the European Commission has performed compliance checks for only the years 2013 and 2014. Malta balanced its respective surplus emissions of 0.08 Mt and 0.12 Mt by AEA purchases from Bulgaria, which had overachieved its targets. Bulgaria declared that it would disburse the financial revenues from these AEA transfers solely to subsidise and administer activities aimed at climate change mitigation or adaptation. All other Member States except Sweden transferred surplus AEAs to subsequent years. Sweden invited Member States to follow its example by increasing ambitions under the ESD through annual cancellation of surplus AEAs. No additional use of flexible mechanisms (transfer of AEAs between Member States or additional flexibility through the purchase of emission credits outside the EU) has been reported.
Use of flexibility |
Historical |
Approximated |
2017-2020 |
2017-2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|
No use of flexibility mechanisms |
27 Member States |
24 Member States |
19 Member States (b) |
20 Member States |
Transfer of AEAs (d) between years only |
|
Belgium, Finland, Ireland |
Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Luxembourg |
Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Luxembourg |
Additional flexibility mechanisms needed |
Malta |
Malta |
Ireland, Malta |
Ireland, Malta |
(a) The 'with existing measures scenario' (WEM) includes adopted measures at the time of preparation of projections. The 'with additional measures' (WAM) scenario also includes planned measures.
(b) Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
(c) Austria and Malta did not report projections in a WAM scenario.
(d) AEA, annual emission allocation
< Previous: 2. Progress of the European Union towards its greenhouse gas emission targets |
Table of contents | > Next: 4 Progress of the European Union towards its renewable energy targets. |
[1] Consequently, there are no national targets on GHG emissions that cover total (economy-wide) emissions. LULUCF emissions are not covered by the ESD. > Back
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/trends-and-projections-in-europe/trends-and-projections-in-europe-2017/progress-towards-member-states-greenhouse or scan the QR code.
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