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Figure

Observed and projected change in global mean sea level

Figure Created 17 Nov 2021 Published 25 Nov 2021 Last modified 25 Nov 2021
2 min read
The left figure depicts the rise in global mean sea level from 1900 to 2020 based on two data sources. All values are relative to the average level of the period 1993-2010, during which the two datasets overlap. The red line (Palmer et al., 2021) shows the ensemble sea-level reconstruction (using five members) of sea level anomalies during 1900–2010 (Palmer et al., 2021; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec#erlabdaecs2). The dark blue line (CMEMS) shows the filtered sea level anomalies corrected for the TOPEX-A instrumental drift (Ablain et al., 2017; WCRP Sea Level Budget Group, 2018), corrected for the GIA using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004), for the time series from 1993 to 2020. The right figure shows the global mean sea level projections (in meters), for 2020-2150, relative to the period 1995–2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Details of the sea-level projections are provided in Box TS.4 and section 9.6 of the Working Group 1 contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.

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Anomalies are expressed relative to the 1993-2010 mean.

IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections.

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Filed under: climate change, sea level
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