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An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions (direct link to the datasets is not available)

External Data Spec Published 23 Nov 2021
1 min read
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Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets
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https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec#erlabdaecs6
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Citation M D Palmer et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 044043 DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/abdae

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Figure Observed and projected change in global mean sea level The left chart shows the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise based on tide gauge reconstructions (grey line) and satellite observations (black line). The figure depicts the rise in global mean sea level from 1900 to 2021 based on two data sources. All values are relative to the average level of the period 1993-2010, during which the two datasets overlap. The grey line (Palmer et al., 2021) shows the ensemble sea-level reconstruction (using five members) of sea level anomalies during 1900-2010 (Palmer et al., 2021; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec#erlabdaecs2). The black line (CMEMS) shows the filtered sea level anomalies corrected for the TOPEX-A instrumental drift (Ablain et al., 2017; WCRP Sea Level Budget Group, 2018), corrected for the GIA using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004), for the time series from 1993 to 2021. The right chart shows global mean sea level projections under different SSP scenarios. Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995-2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution. Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995-2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.
Figure
Archived
Observed and projected change in global mean sea level The left figure depicts the rise in global mean sea level from 1900 to 2020 based on two data sources. All values are relative to the average level of the period 1993-2010, during which the two datasets overlap. The red line (Palmer et al., 2021) shows the ensemble sea-level reconstruction (using five members) of sea level anomalies during 1900–2010 (Palmer et al., 2021; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec#erlabdaecs2). The dark blue line (CMEMS) shows the filtered sea level anomalies corrected for the TOPEX-A instrumental drift (Ablain et al., 2017; WCRP Sea Level Budget Group, 2018), corrected for the GIA using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004), for the time series from 1993 to 2020. The right figure shows the global mean sea level projections (in meters), for 2020-2150, relative to the period 1995–2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Details of the sea-level projections are provided in Box TS.4 and section 9.6 of the Working Group 1 contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.
Figure
Draft
Observed and projected change in global mean sea level The left chart depicts the rise in global mean sea level from 1900 to 2022 based on two data sources. All values are relative to the average level of the period 1993-2010, during which the two datasets overlap. The grey line (Palmer et al., 2021) shows the ensemble sea-level reconstruction (using five members) of sea level anomalies during 1900-2010 (Palmer et al., 2021; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec#erlabdaecs2). The dark grey line (CMEMS) shows the altimeter measurements corrected from the Topex-A drift at the beginning of the time series (Legeais et al., 2020), corrected for the GIA using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004), for the time series from 1993 to 2022. The right chart shows global mean sea level projections under different SSP scenarios. Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995-2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution. Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995-2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.

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