Observed and projected decline in Arctic sea-ice area

Figure Created 16 Dec 2022 Published 20 Dec 2022 Last modified 27 Nov 2023
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This figure combines two data sources. The left part of the figure (black lines) shows the observed change in Arctic sea ice over the period 1979 to 2022 for March (maximum ice cover) and September (minimum ice cover) based on the EUMETSAT OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v2.1 dataset. The right part shows projections of the Arctic sea ice area in March and September from CMIP6 simulations for three emissions scenarios. The thick lines denote the multi-model ensemble mean (24-27 models, depending on the scenario), and the shading shows the likely uncertainty interval (one standard deviation around the multi-model mean). The dashed black line indicates a threshold for near ice-free conditions.

European data


Additional information

Data regularly updated and downloadable.


Geographic coverage

Temporal coverage


Filed under: climate change, arctic, sea ice
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