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Figure

Observed and projected decline in Arctic sea-ice area

Figure Created 31 Oct 2020 Published 31 Oct 2020 Last modified 02 Dec 2020
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This figure combines two data sources. The left part of the figure (black lines) shows the observed change in Arctic sea ice are over the period 1979 to 2020 for March (maximum ice cover) and September (minimum ice cover). The right part shows projections of the Arctic sea ice area in March and September from CMIP6 simulations for three emissions scenarios. The thick lines denote the multimodel ensemble mean (24-27 models, depending on the scenario), and the shading shows the likely uncertainty interval (one standard deviation around the multimodel mean). The dashed black line indicates a threshold for near ice-free conditions.

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Data regularly updated and downloadable.

The figure covers the Northern Hemisphere oceans

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