Climate change mitigation - Drivers and pressures (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia)

Evaluation of pressures

Considerable increase in the total GHG emissions by the year 2025 will occur compared to the projected value for the year 2008 (in absolute value of 9,900 kt CO2-eq, or relatively about 71%) if the usual practice is applied without imposing the constraint for GHG emissions reduction (basleine scenario).

The major rise in the electricity-related emissions (absolute difference of 6,400 kt CO2-eq and 78% relative increase to the 2008 value) reflects the so-called black, lignite-based baseline scenario for the national power sector. Under baseline scenario, the other sectors also exhibit significant rise in the GHG emissions, as the 2025 values compared to the 2008 values are 75% (transport), 71% (heating and industry), 60% (agriculture) and 6% (waste).

Evaluation of responses

The situation can be improved if the developmental paths integrate practices/measures leading to GHG emissions reductions. Hence, the first mitigation scenario (as defined in the sectoral analyses) leads to 46% increase of 2025-value of the total emissions compared to 2008- total emissions or absolute difference of 6,400 kt CO2-eq. This increase in the total emissions is further reduced to 32% (absolute difference of 4,000 kt CO2-eq) if the developmental paths follow the second mitigation scenario.

By implementing predicted climate change mitigation measures into development paths of national economy, the  average annual  growth rate will decrease from 3.6% at 1,4%