Climate change mitigation - Drivers and pressures (Turkey)

Following the Decision 26/CP.7 adopted at the 7. Conference of Parties (COP.7) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), held in Marrakesh in 2001 which “recognized the special conditions of Turkey accepted that Turkey remains an Annex I

Party of the UNFCCC, in a position that is different to that of other Annex I countries and Turkey will be removed from the Annex II”, Turkey has become a party to UNFCCC on May 24, 2004. Turkey became a party to the Protocol as of 26 August 2009.

Turkey was neither an industrialized country nor was in the group of countries undergoing the process of transition to a market economy in 1992 and has negligible Historical Responsibility (i.e. less than 1%). (See Table 1).

Table 1: Cumulative CO2 Emissions between the Years 1850 and 2002 (Source: World Resources Institute (WRI, CAIT), 2004)

Compared to Annex-I Parties of the UNFCCC Turkey has; the lowest per capita emission figures , lower cumulative  emission figures (see figure 2 and 3), the lowest per capita primary energy consumption and the lowest Human Development Index rank. Turkey has rapidly growing economy and energy demand. Increasing emission trends, including the per capita emissions due to economic and population growth. Although Turkey does not have any quantitative reduction commitment a number of sectoral policies on mitigation have been launched.

Figure 2: Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Gg CO2 Equivalent) (Source: UNFCCC Secretariat Inventory Tables, 2007; National Communications of non-Annex-I Countries) )

Figure 3: Per Capita Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Ton CO2 Equivalent / Person) (Source: World Development Indicators – 2009; UNFCCC Inventory, 2009

Turkey’s First National Communication provides a set of projections of the future levels of GHG emissions, ‘with measures’ scenario and a ‘without measures’ scenario, based on model calculations including as shown in the Figure. Due to the increased electricity demand as a result of economic and population in the period 2005 – 2020 scenarios showed a strong increase in GHG emissions. Aggregate emissions from the energy sector in the ‘without measures’ scenario are projected to grow from 246 Million Tones CO₂-eq in 2005 to 616 Million Tones CO₂-eq in 2020. Aggregate emissions for the ‘with measures’ scenario are projected to grow from 246  Million Tones CO₂-eq in 2005 to 539 Million Tones CO₂-eq in 2020. According to the figures presented in the First National Communication, policies and measures which will be implemented until 2020 will result in 76 Million Tones CO₂-eq reductions, meaning a 11% deviation from business-as-usual scenario.

Figure 5 –Emission Scenarios