Climate change mitigation - Drivers and pressures (Estonia)

Drivers

·         Population

Figure 2. Population of Estonia in 1995-2009 (Statistics Estonia)

At the same time the number of births continued to increase – in 2008 there were 16 028 births and the total fertility rate rose to 1.66. In 2008 there were 16 675 deaths, 734 fewer than in 2007. The natural increase was negative, but the difference between the number of births and deaths has been below one thousand for many years (Statistical Yearbook of Estonia, Statistics Estonia 2009).

·         Economic growth

The growth of gross domestic product (GDP) accelerated after accession to the European Union in 2004, rising by more than 10 % in 2005 (Figure 3). Double-digit growth rates persisted for more than a year. Economic success was made possible by cheap loans. The situation was favourable for loan stock to increase with the expanding real-estate boom. During 2000–2007 the loan stock of households increased by more than a factor of ten. Enterprises could spare resources for expansion and their value-added thrived. In the prosperous economic climate the income of households increased rapidly which also contributed to the growth of domestic demand. But economic growth, brought on largely by loans, proved to be fleeting and ten years after the last crises the Estonian economy is once again in recession. At the beginning of 2008 a soft landing was expected but in the 2nd quarter GDP started to fall compared to the same period in 2007. During 2008 Estonian GDP fell by 3.6 % in real terms.

Economic cooling was a global phenomenon in 2008, affecting the majority of developed countries. By autumn 2008 the world’s economic climate indicator fell to the lowest level for 18 years – assessments of the current situation and future expectations worsened (Statistical Yearbook of Estonia, Statistics Estonia 2009).

Figure 3. Gross domestic product chain-linked volume (reference year 2000), €’000 000 (1995-2008), Statistics Estonia

·         Transport

 Road transport

The number of road vehicles – passenger cars, trucks, buses and motorcycles – has increased considerably since 1990 (Figure 4). The use of public transport, in contrast, has decreased.

Figure 4. Total number of road vehicles (1990-2007), Estonian Environment Information Centre

In 2008 buses carried about 122 million passengers – 12 % fewer than in 2007. Fewer passengers used city buses, trams and trolley buses compared to 2007. Bus within counties and rural municipalities and long-distance ones between counties transported fewer passengers than in 2007. Increases in public road transport fares at the beginning of 2008 as well as a decrease in the number of county and national long-distance buses contributed to the decreasing number of passengers. The increase in the number of vehicles was mainly due to increase in the number of passenger cars (Statistical Yearbook of Estonia, Statistics Estonia 2009).

·         Energy demand

The energy sector is the main source of GHG emissions in Estonia. The substantial amounts of energy-related emissions are caused by extensive consumption of fossil fuels for power and heat production. Estonia is among the top ten EU countries for primary energy production per capita, exceeding production in the other Baltic states by about a factor of three. The trend for primary energy production is shown in Figure 5. Economic growth is the reason for the step by step increase in primary energy production.

            Figure 5. Electricity, gross production, including own use by power plants(1995-2008) (Statistics Estonia)

In 2008 primary energy production of Estonia fell, mainly due to the fall in the use of oil shale as a fuel in electricity production. The fall in electricity generation was caused by a decline in exports of 16 %. Exports to Latvia decreased by nearly a factor of two compared to 2007. At the same time, imports from Lithuania increased by about a factor of four.

Fuel combustion

An amount of oil shale extracted in 2007 was the largest for 10 years and was caused by the increase in electricity production (Figure 6).

Figure 6. Consumption of oil shale, 2000-2008 (Statistics Estonia)

Combustion of natural gas and other fuels depends on energy demand and the economic situation. There was a stabilisation period in the first half of the 1990s and a period of economic growth after 2000 which resulted in increased combustion of natural gas and diesel oil (Figures 7 and 8). There has been less change in the consumption of other types of fuel (Figure 8).

Figure 7. Consumption of natural gas, 2000-2008 (Statistics Estonia)

Figure 8. Consumption of different fuel types, 2000-2008 (Statistics Estonia)

Household consumption

The overall economic growth and real estate development has resulted in an increase in electricity consumption in households (Figure 9).

Figure 9. Electricity consumption in households, 1960-2008 (Statistics Estonia)

Consumption of different types of fuels in households is shown in Figure 10.

Figure 10. Consumption of coal, peat, liquefied gas, light fuel and diesel and in households, 1999-2008 (Statistics Estonia)

 Transport

Consumption of fuels by transport is shown in Figure 11. The use of light fuel oil and diesel increased rapidly at the beginning of the century. The number of vehicles is increasing steadily but the efficiency of engines is also increasing.

Consumption of motor gasoline and aviation gasoline is rather stable. Heavy fuel oil is now almost out of use.

Figure 11. Consumption of transport fuels,1999-2007 (Statistics Estonia)

Industry

Consumption of fuels by industry has been increasing for several years due to economic growth (Figures 13 and 14). Electricity consumption by industrial activities is also increasing (Figure12).

Figure 12. Electricity consumption in industry including the mining industry, excluding own use by power plants, 1995-2008 (Statistics Estonia).

Figure 13. Consumption of coal, oil shale and light fuel and diesel by industry, 1999-2008 (Statistics Estonia)

Figure 14. Consumption of natural gas by industry, 1999-2008 (Statistics Estonia)

·         Agricultural demand

The area of utilised agricultural land increased by 4 % between 2004 and 2008 to 802 300 ha., with the sown area of field crops increasing by 17 % to 577 400 ha in 2008. All areas where agricultural products are produced are included in agricultural land.

The number of cattle, including dairy cows, has been stable or decreased slightly between 2004 and 2008. At the end of 2008, there were 237 900 cattle in Estonia of which 100 400 were dairy cows. The number of pigs decreased by 4 % compared to 2007 to around 365 000 at the end of 2008. The number of sheep and goats has almost doubled between 2004 and 2008. The number of poultry reached the level of 2005-2006 (Statistical Yearbook of Estonia, Statistics Estonia 2009).

Agricultural production per inhabitant has increased steadily in recent years. Overall agricultural output for 1995-2007, in basic prices of the previous year, is shown in Figure 15.

Figure 15. Agricultural output in basic prices of the previous year, 1995-2007 (Statistics Estonia)

·         Industrial activities

Overall economic growth has resulted in an increase in industrial activity in recent years (Figure 16). The steady growth in industrial output, around 10 % for some years, has slowed slightly: in 2007 it increased by about 7 % due to a slowdown in the growth of manufacturing. The production of manufactured goods increased by 12 % in 2004, but only 6 % in 2007. There were more than 6 200 operating industrial enterprises in 2007, about 5 900 of them in manufacturing. The manufacture of wood and wood products was the largest branch of manufacturing with more than 1 100 enterprises, followed by the manufacture of metals with about 960 enterprises.

Figure 16. Volume index of industrial production by economic activity, 1992-2008. 2000 index = 100 (Statistics Estonia)

Of all the branches of manufacturing industry, the ones with the fastest output growth have been electrical machinery and optical instruments; pulp, paper and paper products; metals and fabricated metal products; motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers; and other transport equipment. Manufacture of wood and wood products, which had been growing steadily for years, was already slowing in 2006 and went into decline in 2007 due mainly to a shortage of raw materials. Growth in the most important branch of manufacturing in Estonia – manufacture of food products and beverages – which remained around 5-6 % during previous years (Statistical Yearbook of Estonia, Statistics Estonia 2009).

·          Forestry

About 48 % of the territory of Estonia, or about two million hectares, is covered by forests (forest stands).

Forest total felling has been between 60 and 80 ha per year for several years, depending mainly on the price of wood (Figure 17). Reforestation areas assessed for the years 1991-2008 are shown in Figure 18 (Statistics Estonia).

Main reasons for forest destruction are windfalls, forest disease, wildlife damage, unfavourable weather conditions, forest fires and insect pests. Tree damage is caused by leaf pests, root rot, wildlife and unfavourable weather conditions.

Figure 17.

Pressures

·         Emissions and sinks of GHG

GHG emissions decreased by 47.49 % between 1990 and 2007. This decrease was mainly caused by the transition from a planned to a market economy and the successful implementation of the necessary reforms.

In 2007 the total emission of GHGs, measured as carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-eq), was 14 115.63 Gg. Without CO2 from land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) the total was 22 018.68 Gg. Figure 19 shows trends in total emissions for 1990–2007 while Figure 20 shows GHG trends by source group.

In 2007, the most important GHG in Estonia was CO2, contributing 86.71 % to total national GHG emissions expressed in CO2-eq, followed by methane (CH4), 7.83 %, and nitrous oxide (N2O), 4.79 %. Fluorocarbons (‘f-gases’) account for about 0.66 % of total emissions (Figure 21, a). The Energy sector accounted for 86.69 % of total GHG emissions, followed by agriculture, 6.05%, industrial processes, 4.09 %, and waste, 3.17 % (Figure 21, b).

Figure 19. Overall development of GHG in Estonia, CO₂-eq (without CO₂ from LULUCF) (Nation Inventory report, 2009 submission)

 

Figure 20. Greenhouse-gas emissions trends, by source groups, CO₂-eq (Nation Inventory report, 2009 submission)

Figure 21. GHG emissions in 2007 by sectors (a) and by gases (b).