The Arctic Environment

Publication Created 15 Feb 2017 Published 15 Jun 2017
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This report is being published online only. No printed edition of this report will be produced.
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This European Environment Agency (EEA) report contributes to the growing international discourse on the Arctic region. It is both timely and important, since it examines the increasingly rapid changes that are taking place in the Arctic from a European perspective. It considers the national, regional and global challenges and opportunities that are emerging as a result
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Publication Created 15 Feb 2017 Published 15 Jun 2017
1 min read
EEA Report No 7/2017
This European Environment Agency (EEA) report contributes to the growing international discourse on the Arctic region. It is both timely and important, since it examines the increasingly rapid changes that are taking place in the Arctic from a European perspective. It considers the national, regional and global challenges and opportunities that are emerging as a result

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    Mining activities in Northern Fennoscandia and Greenland Mining activities in Northern Fennoscandia and Greenland The map shows the mining activities in the European part of the Arctic region
    Commercial fish landings from regional seas around Europe Commercial fish landings from regional seas around Europe This figure shows the commercial fish landings per regional sea.
    Arctic continental shelf claims Arctic continental shelf claims Overview of the territorial claims of the continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean
    Arctic shipping Arctic shipping The maps shows all ship traffic and extent of sea ice in January and September 2016.
    Projected change in relative sea level, 2081–2100 Projected change in relative sea level, 2081–2100 The map shows the projected change in relative sea level in 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005 for the medium-low emission scenario RCP4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. No projections are available for the Black Sea.
    Permafrost in the Northern hemisphere Permafrost in the Northern hemisphere The Arctic region is undergoing change; a rapid change compared to other parts of the globe. The change is primarily driven by climate change and the effects on the cryosphere are substantial both at a local, national and regional scale. The effects even have potential serious consequences at a global scale due to the important role the Arctic plays in the global climate system. The region is set to undergo further changes in the decades to come, and it is important for Europe to understand these changes and to be aware how Europe are contributing as well as effected by these changes as the European environment and weather is intrinsically linked to the Arctic.
    Arctic resources Arctic resources This map shows the different gas, oil, and mining resources in the Arctic. Receeding ice cover will influence accessibility to mineral and energy resources both on land and in the Continental Shelf in the future. This map also shows both existing and potential sites of mineral and energy resources in the Arctic region.
    The Arctic Region in relation to European countries The Arctic Region in relation to European countries The map shows the primerary focus area of the SOER2015 ARCTIC SEA
    Towns and industrial activities in the Arctic Towns and industrial activities in the Arctic Major activities already exist in the European Arctic, including high population density, infrastructure and economic engagement both on-shore and off-shore.

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    Global and European sea level Global and European sea level Global mean sea level in 2016 was the highest yearly average since measurements started in the late 19 th century; it was about 20 cm higher than at the beginning of the 20 th century. Estimates for the average rate of global sea level rise over the 20 th century range from 1.2 to 1.7 mm/year, with significant decadal variation. The rate of sea level rise since 1993, when satellite measurements became available, has been significantly higher, at around 3 mm/year. Evidence showing the predominant role of anthropogenic climate change in observed global mean sea level rise and the acceleration of sea level rise during recent decades has strengthened since the publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). All coastal regions in Europe have experienced an increase in absolute sea level, but with significant regional variation. Most coastal regions have also experienced an increase in sea level relative to land, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Atlantic coast, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound. Extreme high coastal water levels have increased at most locations along the European coastline. This increase appears to be predominantly due to increases in mean local sea level rather than to changes in storm activity. Global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will very likely occur at a higher rate than during the period 1971–2010. Process-based models considered in the IPCC AR5 project a rise in sea level over the 21st century (2100 vs. 1986–2005 baseline) that is likely (i.e. 66 % probability) in the range of 0.28–0.61 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.52–0.98 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). However, substantially higher values of sea level rise cannot be ruled out. Several recent model-based studies, expert assessments and national assessments have suggested an upper bound for 21st century global mean sea level rise in the range of 1.5–2.5 m. A recent study extending the IPCC AR5 projections estimates global sea level rise by 2300 to be in the range of 0.8–1.4 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 3.4–6.8 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). These values would rise substantially if the largest estimates of sea level contributions from Antarctica over the coming centuries were included. The rise in sea level relative to land along most European coasts is projected to be similar to the global average, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Atlantic coast, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound. Projected increases in extreme high coastal water levels are likely to mostly be the result of increases in local relative mean sea level in most locations. However, several recent studies suggest that increases in the meteorologically driven surge component could also play a substantial role, in particular along the northern European coastline. All available studies project that the damages from coastal floods in Europe would increase many-fold in the absence of adaptation, whereby the specific projections depend on the assumptions of the particular study.
    Ocean acidification Ocean acidification Ocean surface pH has declined from 8.2 to below 8.1 over the industrial era as a result of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This decline corresponds to an increase in oceanic acidity of about 30 %. Ocean acidification in recent decades has been occurring 100 times faster than during past natural events over the last 55 million years. Observed reductions in surface water pH are nearly identical across the global ocean and throughout continental European seas, except for variations near the coast. The pH reduction in the northernmost European seas, i.e. the Norwegian Sea and the Greenland Sea, is larger than the global average. Ocean acidification already reaches into the deep ocean, particularly at the high latitudes. Models consistently project further ocean acidification worldwide. Ocean surface pH is projected to decrease to values between 8.05 and 7.75 by the end of 21st century, depending on future CO2 emissions levels. The largest projected decline represents more than a doubling in acidity. Ocean acidification is affecting marine organisms and this could alter marine ecosystems.
    Glaciers Glaciers The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately half of their volume since 1900, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. It has been estimated that the volume of European glaciers will decline between 22 and 84 % compared with the current situation by 2100 under a moderate greenhouse gas forcing scenario, and between 38 and 89 % under a high forcing scenario. Glacier retreat contributed to global sea level rise by about 0.8 mm per year in 2003–2009. It also affects freshwater supply and run-off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. Furthermore, it may cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
    Snow cover Snow cover Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has declined significantly over the past 90 years, with most of the reductions occurring since 1980. Over the period 1967–2015, snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 7 % on average in March and April and by 47 % in June; the observed reductions in Europe are even larger, at 13 % for March and April and 76 % for June. Snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere is estimated to have decreased by 7 % in March from 1982 to 2009; snow mass in Europe has decreased more rapidly than the average for the Northern Hemisphere, but with large interannual variation. Model simulations project widespread reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe over the 21st century. Changes in snow cover affect the Earth’s surface reflectivity, water resources, flora and fauna and their ecology, agriculture, forestry, tourism, snow sports, transport and power generation.
    Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest bodies of ice in the world and play an important role in the global climate system. Both ice sheets have been losing large amounts of ice at an increasing rate since 1992. The cumulative ice loss from Greenland from 1992 to 2015 was 3 600 Gt and contributed to global sea level rise by approximately 10 mm; the corresponding figure for Antarctica is 1 500 Gt, which corresponds to approximately a 5 mm global sea level rise since 1992. Model projections suggest further declines of the polar ice sheets in the future, but the uncertainties are large.  The melting of the polar ice sheets is estimated to contribute up to 50 cm of global sea level rise during the 21st century. Very long-term projections (until the year 3000) suggest potential sea level rise of several metres with continued melting of the ice sheets.
    Arctic and Baltic sea ice Arctic and Baltic sea ice The extent and volume of the Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available, especially in summer. Over the period 1979–2015, the Arctic has lost, on average, 42 000 km 2 of sea ice per year in winter and 89 000 km 2 per year by the end of summer. The nine lowest Arctic sea ice minima since records began in 1979 have been the September ice cover in each of the last nine years (2007–2015);  the record low Arctic sea ice cover in September 2012 was roughly half the average minimum extent of 1981–2010. The annual maximum ice cover in March 2015 and March 2016 were the lowest on record, and the ice is also getting thinner. The maximum sea ice extent in the Baltic Sea shows a decreasing trend since about 1800. The decrease appears to have accelerated since the 1980s, but the interannual variability is large. Arctic sea ice is projected to continue to shrink and thin. For high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in September is likely before mid-century. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Baltic Sea ice, in particular the extent of the maximal cover, is projected to continue to shrink.

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    For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/the-arctic-environment or scan the QR code.

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