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Climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector in Europe

Publication Created 14 May 2019 Published 04 Sep 2019
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Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways. Changes in temperature and precipitation as well as weather and climate extremes are already influencing crop yields and livestock productivity in Europe. Weather and climate conditions also affect the availability of water needed for irrigation, livestock watering practices, processing of agricultural products, and transport and storage conditions. Climate change is projected to reduce crop productivity in parts of southern Europe and to improve the conditions for growing crops in northern Europe. Although northern regions may experience longer growing seasons and more suitable crop conditions in future, the number of extreme events negatively affecting agriculture in Europe is projected to increase.
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Publication Created 14 May 2019 Published 04 Sep 2019
EEA Report No 4/2019
Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways. Changes in temperature and precipitation as well as weather and climate extremes are already influencing crop yields and livestock productivity in Europe. Weather and climate conditions also affect the availability of water needed for irrigation, livestock watering practices, processing of agricultural products, and transport and storage conditions. Climate change is projected to reduce crop productivity in parts of southern Europe and to improve the conditions for growing crops in northern Europe. Although northern regions may experience longer growing seasons and more suitable crop conditions in future, the number of extreme events negatively affecting agriculture in Europe is projected to increase.

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Changes in soil moisture-based drought occurrence and severity Based on the 2°C scenario (on the right side) and current sensitivity to drought based upon present climate and socio-economic conditions (on the left side).
Changes relative to present in irrigated and rain fed yields between 2021-2014 compared to 1981-2010 per NUTS2 region for RCP8.5 The maps shows the changes relative to present in irrigated and rain fed yields between 2021-2014 compared to 1981-2010 for wheat, maize and sugar beat. Left side shows irrigated - and right side shows rain fed for RCP8.5, per NUTS2 region. Wheat in Europe is not irrigated.
Top net trade displacements of land use Top ten net displacements of land use globally (exports minus imports), with the arrows indicating the direction of product flow. For this trade analysis, the countries of the world were aggregated into 11 regions, color coded on the map. Units are in million gha per year.
Loss of HNV farmland due to agricultural intensification per NUTS3 The High nature Value Farmland (HNV) comprises hot spots of biodivsersity in rural areas and is usually characterised by extensive farming practices. This figure shows where the HNV are at higher risk due the pressure of agricultural intensification.
Yield change for 2018 compared to period 2013-2017 The maps show yield forecasts for wheat, barley, and grain maize in Europe for 2018 and if the expected yields are lower, higher or similar to 5-year average.
Income change at NUTS-2 in EU-27 The figure presents simulated changes in agricultural income in the EU under a climate change scenario. The simulated changes are derived for year 2020, presented on the map in relative terms (percentage change) compared to a base year in 2004. The climate change scenario is divided into sub-scenarios (i) taking into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector and (ii) taking into account technical adaptation of crops to climate change. The colour indices in the maps represent the scale of the impact and are labelled in the figure.
Annual number of hail events in the period 2004-2014 Hail events are detected using overshooting cloud top detections per grid cell, on a 0.3°×0.5° grid.
Major crop import flows for caloric trade dependent countries The map shows crop import flows for caloric trade dependent countries from their biggest supplier. Different colours are associated to different crops imported. Higher colour intensification indicates higher import dependency ratio. Import arrows connect each country to its major supplier. The thicker the arrow, the higher the share the exporting country has on the import volume of that country.
Investigated sites for Water Footprint calculation across European regions Variability in the Water Footprint of arable crop production across European regions
Extreme weather events in Europe from March to April 2017 Apples production in Slovneia in tonnes (left) and area of concern -extreme weather events March - April 2017 (right)
Predicted Climate Change Impact on Land Values (2100)  The map presents the impacts of a selected climate scenario based on the SRES A2 GHG emissions, on each NUTS3 region for a subset of EU countries. Several countries are damaged by future temperature and precipitation changes. Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, and the UK benefit slightly. Italy has the largest aggregate loss of farmland value, losing around 100 billion euro (−60%).
Observed climate zones in the period 1975-1995 (left) and 1996-2016 (right) Northward shift of agro-climate zones in Europe analysed over the past 40 years and under future climate conditions for the next decades.
Areas of concern - extreme weather events Area of concern - extreme weather events in 2018 (left). Precipitation deviation during summer 2018 compared to period 1981-2010 (right)

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Climate change adaptation is key to avoid disruption of EU agricultural commodities imports Stepping up European Union (EU) support for international adaptation, together with trade diversification are key actions the EU can take to lessen the impacts of climate change on agricultural trade, according to a European Environment Agency (EEA) briefing published today.
Climate change threatens future of farming in Europe Crop and livestock production is projected to decrease and may even have to be abandoned in parts of Europe’s southern and Mediterranean regions due to the increased negative impacts of climate change, according to a European Environment Agency (EEA) report published today. The study says that adapting to climate change must be made a top priority for the European Union’s agriculture sector if it is to improve resilience to extreme events like droughts, heatwaves and floods.

Related briefings

Rethinking agriculture While global food chains, market competition, industrial processes and increasing productivity have turned agriculture into a profitable economic sector, it is also one of the biggest contributors to environmental and sustainability challenges in Europe and worldwide. In tandem, the COVID-19 pandemic, recent geopolitical developments in Europe and socio-economic trends have driven attention towards agriculture and food systems. Considering these new challenges, it is even more urgent to rethink agriculture and food systems to make them resilient and sustainable. This briefing reflects on what makes agriculture unsustainable today — and the types of agriculture we may want to preserve and support.
Towards ‘just resilience’: leaving no one behind when adapting to climate change Despite efforts to adapt to climate change in Europe, the most vulnerable groups in society are still the most affected. Projected climate change, an ageing society and persisting socio-economic inequalities mean that differences in vulnerability and exposure to climate change are likely to continue. In addition, adaptation responses may worsen existing inequalities or even create new ones. This briefing looks at how climate change affects vulnerable groups and how these impacts can be prevented or reduced through equitable adaptation actions. It also presents examples of equity-oriented policies and measures from across Europe.

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/cc-adaptation-agriculture or scan the QR code.

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