Major crop import flows for caloric trade dependent countries

Figure Created 13 Jun 2019 Last modified 14 Jun 2019
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The map shows crop import flows for caloric trade dependent countries from their biggest supplier. Different colours are associated to different crops imported. Higher colour intensification indicates higher import dependency ratio. Import arrows connect each country to its major supplier. The thicker the arrow, the higher the share the exporting country has on the import volume of that country.

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13 Jun 2019
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Depicted are only caloric trade dependent countries, meaning that these countries derive at least 25% of their calories through the respective crop and need to import at least 25% of it.These countries are matched with their most important supplier of the respective crop. FAOSTAT data used where available. 

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Import dependency ratio (ratio); Import share (%)

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EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Environment Agency (EEA).
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European Environment Agency (EEA)
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Additional information

We use data from FAOSTAT when available. In case of missing data, we take data from GTAP. For some of the countries in question, GTAP 8.1 provides export data only on an aggregate level (as e.g. Rest of Western Africa). Further, maize is not a separate sector but part of the sector group Other Grains that also comprises barley, rye, oats and other cereals. Further, GTAP holds data for the year 2007 only whereas the information derived from FAO represents five-year averages (2007-2011). Source: FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets and GTAP.

Geographical coverage: Geographical regions

Copyright policy for this illustration: Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.

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Data references

Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 8 Data Base (GTAP 8.1) Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 8 Data Base (GTAP 8.1) GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) is a global network of researchers and policy makers conducting quantitative analysis of international policy issues. GTAP's goal is to improve the quality of quantitative analysis of global economic issues within an economy-wide framework.
Teleconnected food supply shocks Teleconnected food supply shocks The 2008–2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.

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