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Indicator Assessment
Passenger transport demand
Passenger transport demand in the EU-28, measured in passenger-kilometres (pkm), experienced a sustained period of robust growth until 2008 for all modes. Since its peak in 2008 (8.4 % higher than in 2000), it had remained broadly stable, with only a slight overall reduction as a result of the economic recession from 2009 to 2012. Since 2012, passenger transport demand has grown by 7.9 %. In 2016, total passenger demand was 15 % higher than in 2000, exceeding the 2008 peak by 5.9 %.
Since 2010, passenger transport volumes (in pkm) across the different modes have changed as follows:
In absolute terms, passenger cars have accounted for most of the overall increase in passenger transport volumes since 2010, followed by aviation. Since 2010, the EU population has grown by slightly more than 1 %, significantly less than the 7 % growth in total passenger transport. In the vast majority of Member States, car mobility was greater in 2016 than in any preceding year.
In most of the newer Member States, per capita car travel keeps growing. The same is true in some non-EU countries such as Turkey, which experienced high growth of around 72 % between 2009 and 2016.
Since 2008, rail passenger traffic volumes have dropped significantly in many countries owing to the economic crisis, historic decline or both. The decrease has been particularly high in many eastern European Member States. In contrast, between 2009 and 2015, rail demand grew in a few EU-15 countries, in some cases by 10 % or more. This includes Austria, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Trends in passenger demand for high-speed rail are difficult to assess, as traffic growth trends are, not surprisingly, greatly influenced by the opening of new services over the past decades. Nevertheless, it seems that in certain countries, such as Belgium, Poland and Spain, high-speed rail is increasing significantly as a proportion of total rail passenger traffic, while in others it peaked in 2012 (Italy) or earlier (Finland, France, Germany and Sweden).
Air transport, including flights within the EU-28, has varied substantially since 2000. Although it grew rapidly between 2003 and 2007, air transport traffic was particularly affected by the economic crisis; traffic fell by 7 % in 2009. Whereas traditional airlines were particularly badly affected by the recession, low-cost airlines have grown every year since 2008. Their growth has helped to drive overall growth in the aviation sector since 2009, with air pkm greater than in all previous years. Compared with 2009, air transport grew by 36 %. In 2016, air transport grew by 11.6 %, compared with 2015, the largest annual growth since 1995.
Trends in inland passenger transport demand and gross domestic product (GDP) have decreased in intensity (pkm/EUR) since 2000, with the exception of 2009 for which the impacts of the economic recession are clear. In 2009, the sharp reduction in GDP in the EEA-33 was however still associated with a slight increase in passenger transport volumes compared with previous years, suggesting that passenger transport demand reacted less (and more slowly) to changes in GDP than freight did.
Freight transport demand
Alongside economic growth and expansion, total land freight transport within the EU-28 (road, rail and inland waterways) increased steadily throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, growing by 23 % in the years up to 2007. Between 2000 and 2007, the real average annual growth rate of GDP was slightly more than 2 % in the EU‑28, with higher growth in the EU‑13 than in the EU‑15. This growth took place in the context of continued globalisation, with rising trade volumes both within the EU and with trade partners outside the EU. A sharp fall in freight demand occurred in the years immediately following the economic downturn in 2008 and since then freight volumes have recovered slightly but have not yet reached pre-downturn levels. In 2016, total land freight transport increased by 2.8 %, compared with 2015.
If the evolution of the intensity of freight transport in the EU‑28 economy (tonne kilometres per unit of GDP in constant 2010 prices) is considered, with 2000 as a benchmark, freight intensity was lower between 2001 and 2003, but subsequently increased between 2004 and 2008. Since 2009, the intensity of freight transport in the economy has been around 5 % lower than in 2000. This lower intensity coincides with a period of lower or negative economic growth in Europe following the economic downturn.
Restrictions on data availability mean that modal split analysis, including that of air transport, is limited to the EU-28. Modal share trends have remained largely stable in the EU-28 in recent decades. Since 1995, air transport (including flights within the EU) has steadily increased from 6.5 % of total transport in 1995 to 10.5% in 2016, while land transport modes have slightly decreased. As a proportion of total transport, car transport has remained almost constant, decreasing from 73 % in 1995 to 71 % in 2016, after peaking at 74 % in 2002-2003. Rail transport is quite stable with a market share of around 6.6 % (the same as in 1995). The market share for bus and coach transport has continued to decrease at a very slow rate, from 9.6 % in 1995 to 8.1 % in 2016.
The modal split of passenger transport has not changed much since 2005 in the EU-28. Car transport is the most important land passenger transport mode with a share of almost 83 %. The share of bus and coach passenger transport decreased slightly from 10.1 % in 2005 to 9.5 % in 2016, however, rail transport increased from 7 to 7.7 %. Bus and coach is a much popular choice in the EU-13 than in EU-15 (15.6 % and 8.5 %, respectively).
The majority share of freight in the EU-28 is transported by road. Over time there has been no substantial change in this share at an aggregated EU level.
By way of contrast, within the EU-13, the share of rail in the total amount of freight transported by road and rail decreased from more than 40 % in 2000 to less than 20 % in 2016. Conversely, the share of freight transported by road increased over the same period. Despite the decrease in transport of freight by rail, the share of rail in the EU-13 remains higher than that in the EU-15, with the latter accounting for 18 %. Compared with 2000, the share of rail in the EU-15 has increased slightly.
'Passenger transport demand' is defined as the number of passenger kilometres (pkm) travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland passenger transport includes transport by passenger car, bus, coach and train.
'Freight transport demand' is defined as the amount of inland tonne-kilometres (tkm) travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland freight transport includes transport by road, rail, inland waterway, air and maritime. Transport via rail and inland waterway is based on movements within national territory ('territoriality principle'), regardless of the nationality of the vehicle or vessel; road transport is based on all movements of vehicles registered in the reporting country.
'Modal split' is defined as the proportion of total pkm allocated to different transport modes every year. The modal split of freight transport is defined as the percentage share of modes (road and rail) in total inland transport, including transport by road, rail and inland waterway.
The 'decoupling indicator' is defined as the annual changes in the ratio of pkm/tkm (inland modes) to GDP (in 2010 prices) growth.
The unit used to express passenger transport volume is the passenger-kilometre (pkm), which represents one passenger travelling a distance of 1 km. It is based on transport by car, bus, coach and train. The unit used to express freight transport volume is the tonne-kilometre (tkm), which represents the movement of one tonne over a distance of one kilometre.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2010.
Transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000=100). The ratio of the former to the latter is indexed to the year t–1 (i.e. annual decoupling/intensity changes) in order to observe changes in the annual intensity of passenger transport demand relative to economic growth (GDP).
The modal split is shown as a percentage (%).
The EU has set itself the objective of decoupling economic growth from transport demand in order to create a more sustainable transport system. This decoupling has been a central theme in EU transport policy and is intended to minimise the negative impacts of transport.
In order to measure the decoupling of passenger demand from economic growth, the volume of passenger transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated.
The annual pkm/tkm growth rate is therefore compared with the annual GDP growth rate. Relative decoupling occurs when passenger and freight transport demand grows at a rate below that of GDP. Absolute decoupling occurs when passenger and freight transport demand falls and GDP continues to rise or remains constant. If demand and GDP both fall, they remain coupled.
Transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (for freight transport demand: 2000=100; GDP at 2010 prices).
A detailed description of the concepts used and data collected in the transport database can be found inEurostat's concepts and definitions database.
No gap filling is required for this indicator.
No methodology references available.
To understand whether or not transport demand is being decoupled from economic growth, the intensity of transport demand relative to changes in real GDP is analysed. A reduction in intensity should signal the relative decoupling of transport demand from economic growth.
A decoupling indicator analyses pressures on the environment because of changes in the relevant economical variables to which environmental pressures are causally linked. This indicator compares the growth in pkm as a proxy of the pressures on the environment caused by transport. It is considered a good proxy; however, it is known to be inaccurate as pkm/tkm values in isolation do not fully explain the environmental pressures.
Figures on pkm/tkm travelled by air are available as an EU-28 aggregate only. Air pkm/tkm are a provisional estimate for domestic flights and flights between EU countries. Figures for freight transport by road, rail, bus and inland waterway are available separately for all EU-28 Member States. The sources used by the European Commission (DG-MOVE) include national statistics, estimates, the International Transport Forum and Eurostat.
Even if two countries have the same transport intensity, or show the same trend over time, the environmental effects can be different. The link to environmental impact has to be assessed on the basis of the energy consumption and fuels used to satisfy demand and the technology used, in addition to the new infrastructure-related impacts.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/passenger-and-freight-transport-demand/assessment or scan the QR code.
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