Passenger and freight transport demand

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-465-en
Also known as: CSI 056 , TERM 039
Created 12 Oct 2018 Published 22 Nov 2018 Last modified 22 Nov 2018
18 min read
Passenger transport demand in the EU-28 increased by 2.5 % between 2015 and 2016, the second largest annual growth rate since 1999.  Car passenger travel remains the dominant transport mode accounting for well over 70 % of total passenger transport.  Air transport demand continues to grow and now boasts a modal share of passenger transport of over 10 % — the largest share since 1995. Compared with 2015, air transport grew by 6 % in 2016.  Rail passenger travel is stable, accounting for 6.8 % of transport demand in 2016. Land-based passenger transport demand also grew in non-EU EEA member countries. In 2016, it grew by 16 % in Iceland, 3.3 % in Turkey, 2.1 % in Switzerland and less than 1 % in Norway compared with 2015, . In 2016, the main contributors to the increase in total freight transport were road and maritime freight (+5.2 % and 6.4 %, respectively). Total freight transport increased by 4.6 % compared with 2015, the largest annual increase since 2010. The modal share of freight transported over land remained largely constant and is still dominated by road transport (76 %), followed by rail (17 %) and inland waterways (6 %).

Key messages

  • Passenger transport demand in the EU-28 increased by 2.5 % between 2015 and 2016, the second largest annual growth rate since 1999. 
  • Car passenger travel remains the dominant transport mode accounting for well over 70 % of total passenger transport. 
  • Air transport demand continues to grow and now boasts a modal share of passenger transport of over 10 % — the largest share since 1995. Compared with 2015, air transport grew by 6 % in 2016. 
  • Rail passenger travel is stable, accounting for 6.8 % of transport demand in 2016.
  • Land-based passenger transport demand also grew in non-EU EEA member countries. In 2016, it grew by 16 % in Iceland, 3.3 % in Turkey, 2.1 % in Switzerland and less than 1 % in Norway compared with 2015, .
  • In 2016, the main contributors to the increase in total freight transport were road and maritime freight (+5.2 % and 6.4 %, respectively). Total freight transport increased by 4.6 % compared with 2015, the largest annual increase since 2010.
  • The modal share of freight transported over land remained largely constant and is still dominated by road transport (76 %), followed by rail (17 %) and inland waterways (6 %).

Is transport demand being decoupled from economic growth?

Passenger transport volume and modal split

EU-28
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Freight transport volume and modal split within the EU

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Inland freight transport volumes and GDP

EEA-33
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EU-13
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EU-15
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Passenger transport demand

Passenger transport demand in the EU-28, measured in passenger-kilometres (pkm), experienced a sustained period of robust growth until 2008 for all modes. Since its peak in 2008 (8.4 % higher than in 2000), it had remained broadly stable, with only a slight overall reduction as a result of the economic recession from 2009 to 2012. Since 2012, passenger transport demand has grown by 7.9 %. In 2016, total passenger demand was 15 % higher than in 2000, exceeding the 2008 peak by 5.9 %.  

Since 2010, passenger transport volumes (in pkm) across the different modes have changed as follows:

  • Passenger cars: +4 %;
  • Powered two-wheelers: +4 %;
  • Buses and coaches: +2 %;
  • Railways: +11 %;
  • Trams and metro: +8 %;
  • Aviation: +28 %;
  • Sea: –12 %.

In absolute terms, passenger cars have accounted for most of the overall increase in passenger transport volumes since 2010, followed by aviation. Since 2010, the EU population has grown by slightly more than 1 %, significantly less than the 7 % growth in total passenger transport. In the vast majority of Member States, car mobility was greater in 2016 than in any preceding year.

In most of the newer Member States, per capita car travel keeps growing. The same is true in some non-EU countries such as Turkey, which experienced high growth of around 72 % between 2009 and 2016. 

Since 2008, rail passenger traffic volumes have dropped significantly in many countries owing to the economic crisis, historic decline or both. The decrease has been particularly high in many eastern European Member States. In contrast, between 2009 and 2015, rail demand grew in a few EU-15 countries, in some cases by 10 % or more. This includes Austria, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Trends in passenger demand for high-speed rail are difficult to assess, as traffic growth trends are, not surprisingly, greatly influenced by the opening of new services over the past decades. Nevertheless, it seems that in certain countries, such as Belgium, Poland and Spain, high-speed rail is increasing significantly as a proportion of total rail passenger traffic, while in others it peaked in 2012 (Italy) or earlier (Finland, France, Germany and Sweden).

Air transport, including flights within the EU-28, has varied substantially since 2000. Although it grew rapidly between 2003 and 2007, air transport traffic was particularly affected by the economic crisis; traffic fell by 7 % in 2009. Whereas traditional airlines were particularly badly affected by the recession, low-cost airlines have grown every year since 2008. Their growth has helped to drive overall growth in the aviation sector since 2009, with air pkm greater than in all previous years. Compared with 2009, air transport grew by 36 %. In 2016, air transport grew by 11.6 %, compared with 2015, the largest annual growth since 1995. 

Trends in inland passenger transport demand and gross domestic product (GDP) have decreased in intensity (pkm/EUR) since 2000, with the exception of 2009 for which the impacts of the economic recession are clear. In 2009, the sharp reduction in GDP in the EEA-33 was however still associated with a slight increase in passenger transport volumes compared with previous years, suggesting that passenger transport demand reacted less (and more slowly) to changes in GDP than freight did.

Freight transport demand

Alongside economic growth and expansion, total land freight transport within the EU-28 (road, rail and inland waterways) increased steadily throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, growing by 23 % in the years up to 2007. Between 2000 and 2007, the real average annual growth rate of GDP was slightly more than 2 % in the EU‑28, with higher growth in the EU‑13 than in the EU‑15. This growth took place in the context of continued globalisation, with rising trade volumes both within the EU and with trade partners outside the EU. A sharp fall in freight demand occurred in the years immediately following the economic downturn in 2008 and since then freight volumes have recovered slightly but have not yet reached pre-downturn levels. In 2016, total land freight transport increased by 2.8 %, compared with 2015.

  • Road: Total road freight volumes in 2016 were around one-fifth higher than in 2000. In the EU-15, road freight transportation increased slightly in 2016 compared with 2015, with different countries recording different amounts. In the EU-13, volumes grew by 8.3 %. Road haulage accounted for more than three quarters of total inland freight movements within the EU-28 in 2016. 
  • Rail: The amount of freight transported by rail has stabilised overall. In the EU-28, rail freight volumes were higher in 2016 compared with 2000, after having reached a peak increase of 11.5 % in 2007, compared with 2000. In 2016, rail freight transport demand decreased slightly compared with the previous year. Changes in rail, both in the EU-13 and EU-15, were minor. Rail freight volumes increased by 12 % in Turkey, although they remained almost stable in Norway and Switzerland.
  • Inland waterways: the amount of freight transported by inland waterway was stable in the EU-28. In 2016, it remained at 2015 levels. Compared with 2010, total tonne-kilometers in the EU-28 have decreased by 5 %.

If the evolution of the intensity of freight transport in the EU‑28 economy (tonne kilometres per unit of GDP in constant 2010 prices) is considered, with 2000 as a benchmark, freight intensity was lower between 2001 and 2003, but subsequently increased between 2004 and 2008. Since 2009, the intensity of freight transport in the economy has been around 5 % lower than in 2000. This lower intensity coincides with a period of lower or negative economic growth in Europe following the economic downturn.

Is public transport increasing as a proportion of total passenger transport?

Passenger transport modal split

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Restrictions on data availability mean that modal split analysis, including that of air transport, is limited to the EU-28. Modal share trends have remained largely stable in the EU-28 in recent decades. Since 1995, air transport (including flights within the EU) has steadily increased from 6.5 % of total transport in 1995 to 10.5% in 2016, while land transport modes have slightly decreased. As a proportion of total transport, car transport has remained almost constant, decreasing from 73 % in 1995 to 71 % in 2016, after peaking at 74 % in 2002-2003. Rail transport is quite stable with a market share of around 6.6 % (the same as in 1995). The market share for bus and coach transport has continued to decrease at a very slow rate, from 9.6 % in 1995 to 8.1 % in 2016. 

The modal split of passenger transport has not changed much since 2005 in the EU-28. Car transport is the most important land passenger transport mode with a share of almost 83 %. The share of bus and coach passenger transport decreased slightly from 10.1 % in 2005 to 9.5 % in 2016, however, rail transport increased from 7 to 7.7 %. Bus and coach is a much popular choice in the EU-13 than in EU-15 (15.6 % and 8.5 %, respectively). 

Is road freight being reduced relative to other transport modes?

Modal split between freight transported by road and rail

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The majority share of freight in the EU-28 is transported by road. Over time there has been no substantial change in this share at an aggregated EU level.

By way of contrast, within the EU-13, the share of rail in the total amount of freight transported by road and rail decreased from more than 40 % in 2000 to less than 20 % in 2016. Conversely, the share of freight transported by road increased over the same period. Despite the decrease in transport of freight by rail, the share of rail in the EU-13 remains higher than that in the EU-15, with the latter accounting for 18 %. Compared with 2000, the share of rail in the EU-15 has increased slightly.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

'Passenger transport demand' is defined as the number of passenger kilometres (pkm) travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland passenger transport includes transport by passenger car, bus, coach and train.

'Freight transport demand' is defined as the amount of inland tonne-kilometres (tkm) travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland freight transport includes transport by road, rail, inland waterway, air and maritime. Transport via rail and inland waterway is based on movements within national territory ('territoriality principle'), regardless of the nationality of the vehicle or vessel; road transport is based on all movements of vehicles registered in the reporting country. 

'Modal split' is defined as the proportion of total pkm allocated to different transport modes every year. The modal split of freight transport is defined as the percentage share of modes (road and rail) in total inland transport, includings transport by road, rail and inland waterway.

The 'decoupling indicator' is defined as the annual changes in the ratio of pkm/tkm (inland modes) to GDP (in 2010 prices) growth.

Units

The unit used to express passenger transport volume is the passenger-kilometre (pkm), which represents one passenger travelling a distance of 1 km. It is based on transport by car, bus, coach and train. The unit used to express freight transport volume is the tonne-kilometre (tkm), which represents the movement of one tonne over a distance of one kilometre.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2010.

Transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000 = 100). The ratio of the former to the latter is indexed to the year t  1 (i.e. annual decoupling/intensity changes) in order to observe changes in the annual intensity of passenger transport demand relative to economic growth (GDP). 

The modal split is shown as a percentage (%).


Policy context and targets

Context description

The EU has set itself the objective of decoupling economic growth from transport demand in order to create a more sustainable transport system. This decoupling has been a central theme in EU transport policy and is intended to minimise the negative impacts of transport.

Targets

  • In this indicator, the policy target to significantly decouple transport growth from GDP growth in order to reduce the negative environmental effects of transport and congestion is considered.
  • In the EU, a total of 30 % of road freight transported over distances greater than 300 km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030, and more than 50 % should shift by 2050, facilitated by efficient and green freight corridors. 

Related policy documents

  • 7th Environment Action Programme
    DECISION No 1386/2013/EU OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 20 November 2013 on a General Union Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7 th EU Environment Action Programme to 2020 ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. This programme is intended to help guide EU action on the environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020 based on the following vision: ‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet’s ecological limits. Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative, circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society’s resilience. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a safe and sustainable global society.’
  • A European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility
    Transport is the backbone of the economy, an enabler of growth and jobs, essential for the functioning of the single market and the free movement of goods and people. Market integration, economic growth and transport activity are strongly related. The global transition towards a low-carbon economy has started, supported by the Paris Climate Agreement. Transport will need to play an important role in this transition. The transition towards a low-carbon economy also represents a major opportunity for jobs and growth in the transport sector, as markets for low-emission mobility grow globally. This transition will be supported by a number of disruptive trends, such as digitalisation and new technologies. Transport is increasingly becoming an on-demand service as consumer needs and perceptions of mobility solutions evolve. Taken together, these trends also imply important competitiveness challenges and significant effort will be required from businesses and regulators to turn them into growth and employment opportunities for Europe. A forward looking and long-term policy approach with the aim of ensuring a regulatory and business environment that is conducive to meeting the competitiveness challenges that the transition to low-emission mobility implies is a vital precondition. The analysis carried out in this paper provides insights on the necessary tools to do this.
  • REGULATION (EC) No 443/2009 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL 443/2009
    Regulation (ec) no 443/2009 of the European parliament and of the Council setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars as part of the community's integrated approach to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles.
  • REGULATION (EU) No 510/2011
    REGULATION (EU) No 510/2011 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL setting emission performance standards for new light commercial vehicles as part of the Union's integrated approach to reduce CO 2 emissions from light-duty vehicles
  • Transport White paper 2011
    Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area - Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

In order to measure the decoupling of passenger demand from economic growth, the volume of passenger transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated. 

The annual pkm/tkm growth rate is therefore compared with the annual GDP growth rate. Relative decoupling occurs when passenger and freight transport demand grows at a rate below that of GDP. Absolute decoupling occurs when passenger and freight transport demand falls and GDP continues to rise or remains constant. If demand and GDP both fall, they remain coupled.

Transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (for freight transport demand: 2000=100; GDP at 2010 prices). 

A detailed description of the concepts used and data collected in the transport database can be found inEurostat's concepts and definitions database.

Methodology for gap filling

No gap filling is required for this indicator.

Methodology references

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

To understand whether or not transport demand is being decoupled from economic growth, the intensity of transport demand relative to changes in real GDP is analysed. A reduction in intensity should signal the relative decoupling of transport demand from economic growth.

A decoupling indicator analyses pressures on the environment because of changes in the relevant economical variables to which  environmental pressures are causally linked. This indicator compares the growth in pkm as a proxy of the pressures on the environment caused by transport. It is considered a good proxy; however, it is known to be inaccurate as pkm/tkm values in isolation do not fully explain the environmental pressures. 

Data sets uncertainty

Figures on pkm/tkm travelled by air are available as an EU-28 aggregate only. Air pkm/tkm are a provisional estimate for domestic flights and flights between EU countries. Figures for freight transport by road, rail, bus and inland waterway are available separately for all EU-28 Member States. The sources used by the European Commission (DG-MOVE) include national statistics, estimates, the International Transport Forum and Eurostat.

Rationale uncertainty

Even if two countries have the same transport intensity, or show the same trend over time, the environmental effects can be different. The link to environmental impact has to be assessed on the basis of the energy consumption and fuels used to satisfy demand, and the technology used, in addition to the new infrastructure-related impacts. 

Data sources

Generic metadata

Topics:

information.png Tags:
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DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CSI 056
  • TERM 039
Temporal coverage:

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Diana Vedlugaite

Dates

Frequency of updates

Updates are scheduled once per year
Document Actions
European Environment Agency (EEA)
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Phone: +45 3336 7100