All official European Union website addresses are in the europa.eu domain.
See all EU institutions and bodiesDo something for our planet, print this page only if needed. Even a small action can make an enormous difference when millions of people do it!
Indicator Specification
Climate change is one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats and the warming of the climate system is unequivocal according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
In order to prevent the most severe impacts of climate change, countries that have signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed to cooperate with a view to limiting the increase in global average temperature and the resulting climate change. In this context, industrialised countries need to prepare and submit regularly updated annual inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Up until 2020, the main international instrument to limit GHG emissions was the Kyoto Protocol, which was adopted in 1997 and set binding emissions reduction targets for its signatories. It was followed by the Paris Agreement that aims at ‘keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius’. According to the IPCC Special Report: Global Warming of 1.5ºC, no or limited overshoot of 1.5 degrees Celsius requires reaching net zero around 2050. The EU’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared with 1990, under its 2030 climate and energy framework. All key EU legislation for implementing this target was adopted by the end of 2018.
In 2020, the European Commission put forward the 2030 Climate Target Plan to further cut net GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 to set the EU on a responsible path to become climate neutral by 2050. The Commission will consequently review and, where necessary, propose to revise all relevant policy instruments to deliver additional greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
In order to assess the progress of the EU towards these international and internal commitments, the historic and projected GHG emissions trends are assessed and presented in this indicator.
This indicator presents past and projected emissions trends in Europe and assesses the progress of the EU towards its international and internal GHG targets.
The EU’s total GHG emissions are shown in the context of the EU’s overall climate targets and disaggregated trends are shown to illustrate the development of emissions covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and the Effort Sharing Legislation, as well as those from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Emissions from international aviation are included in total GHG emissions and depicted separately, together with the disaggregated trends.
In accordance with the UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines, total GHG emissions do not cover emissions from international shipping, net LULUCF emissions and/or removals, and CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass (including biofuels in transport).
The indicator covers all 27 Member States of the European Union and the UK for historic emissions trends. Future emissions trends (from 2021 onwards) do not include the United Kingdom.
This indicator expresses GHG emissions in 'million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent' (Mt CO2e).
The UNFCCC sets an ultimate objective of stabilising GHG concentrations 'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system.' The European Union, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports annually on the GHG emissions within the area covered by its Member States. The Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory and inventory report, officially submitted to the UNFCCC Secretariat, is prepared on behalf of the European Commission (DG CLIMA) by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate change mitigation and energy (ETC/CME), supported by the Joint Research Centre and Eurostat.
In 2007, EU leaders committed to a 20% reduction in EU GHG emissions by 2020 on the basis of 1990 GHG emissions. The EU 2020 Climate and Energy Package, adopted in 2009, sets a two-fold legislative framework to achieve the 20% GHG emissions reduction objective:
Building on the 2020 climate and energy package, the European Council adopted the 2030 climate and energy framework, which sets a target of a 40% reduction in GHG emissions compared with 1990.
Very recently, as part of the European Green Deal, the Commission proposed to raise the 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, including emissions and removals, to at least 55% compared with 1990. This will enable the EU to move towards a climate-neutral economy by 2050. This new long-term objective is a key element of the European Green Deal and is in line with the EU’s commitment to global climate action under the Paris Agreement.
This indicator aims to present an assessment of the EU's progress towards its 2020, 2030 and 2050 ambitions under consideration of the trends of emissions covered under ETS, ESD and LULUCF legislation. The indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by EEA member countries and the EU to the UNFCCC, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation 525/2013, MMR).
EU greenhouse gas targets 2020
The unilateral 20% GHG reduction target, in the context of the EU Climate and Energy Package, corresponds to a 14% decrease in emissions between 2005 and 2020. The target is to be achieved both in the sectors covered by the EU ETS (21% reduction in EU ETS emissions compared with 2005 levels) and in the other sectors covered by national emission targets under the ESD.
The annual ESD targets used in the indicator are consistent with the EU ETS scope for the third trading period (2013-2020), based on
EU greenhouse gas targets 2030
In October 2015, the European Council adopted the '2030 climate and energy framework', setting a binding target to cut emissions in the EU territory by at least 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 with emission cuts of:
As part of as part of the European Green Deal, the Commission proposed to raise the 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, including emissions and removals, to at least 55% compared with 1990. This will enable the EU to move towards a climate-neutral economy by 2050. This new long-term objective is a key element of the European Green Deal and is in line with the EU’s commitment to global climate action under the Paris Agreement.
This indicator is based on the official GHG inventories submitted by the EEA countries to the EEA, as well as on the projected GHG emissions submitted by the Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation 525/2013, MMR). The EU GHG inventory submitted by the EU to the UNFCCC is based on the same data and is also used. The EU ETS emissions, as reported to the European Commission by operators of industrial installations and aircrafts, are also used. When available, approximate estimates of the GHG emissions for the year (X-1) are also presented.
Greenhouse gases
In line with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines on annual inventories, the national inventories cover emissions and removals of the following GHGs:
- carbon dioxide (CO2), including indirect CO2;
- methane (CH4);
- nitrous oxide (N2O);
- hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs);
- perfluorocarbons (PFCs);
- suphur hexafluoride (SF6); and
- nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)
from six sectors (Energy, Industrial processes and product use, Agriculture, LULUCF, Waste and Other).
The gases do not include the GHG emissions that are also ozone-depleting substances, which are controlled by the Montreal Protocol.
In order to be aggregated, non-CO2 gases are weighted by their respective global warming potential (GWP) and presented in CO2-equivalent units. Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given mass of a GHG is estimated to contribute to global warming on a 100-year horizon.
In accordance with the UNFCCC rules, the GWP values used in this indicator are the ones from IPCC AR4:
Gas |
Global warming potential values from IPCC AR2 [before 2015] |
Global warming potential values from IPCC AR4 [after 2015] |
Carbon dioxide (CO2) |
1 |
1 |
Methane (CH4) |
21 |
25 |
Nitrous oxide (N2O) |
310 |
298 |
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) |
23 900 |
22 800 |
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) |
_ |
17 200 |
HFCs and PFCs comprise a large number of different gases that have different GWPs. The full list of GWPs can be found here: IPCC AR 4
Greenhouse gas inventories
For the preparation of their national inventories, countries use the methodologies of the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
Projected greenhouse gas emissions
For projected GHG emissions, information submitted by the EEA countries under the MMR is used. The projected GHG emissions referred to in the indicator are those reported under the 'with existing measures' scenario (WEM) and the 'with additional measures' scenario (WAM).
Emission trading system emissions
Emissions from the EU ETS are also presented in the indicator. The EU ETS runs over three trading periods: Phase I (2005-2007), Phase II (2008-2012) and Phase III (2013-2020).
In 2013, the scope of the EU ETS was expanded to include additional references to (a) the capture, transport and geological storage of GHG emissions; (b) CO2 emissions from petrochemical, ammonia and aluminium production; (c) N2O emissions from the production of nitric, adipic and glyoxylic acids; and (d) PFC emissions from aluminium production. Since 1 January 2012, aviation has also been part of the EU ETS.
Since 2013, these emissions have been calculated by the plant operators that fall under the ETS obligations in line with Regulation No 601/2012, whereas in Phase II of the EU ETS (2008-2012), the monitoring and reporting of the operators was based on Commission Decision 2004/156/EU.
Croatia entered the EU ETS on 1 January 2013.
Approximated greenhouse gas inventory
Finally, this indicator uses data and estimates from the 'Approximated GHG inventory' for the year (X-1). These 'proxy' inventories are reported by Member States to the EEA and to the Commission under the MMR by 31 July of each year, X, and are calculated at an aggregated level on the basis of the national and international information available for the year (X-1).
Greenhouse gas inventories (years 1990-(X-2)):
The historic emissions data presented in the indicator are based on the information reported by Member States under the MMR. However, should a Member State not submit the inventory data required to compile the EU inventory, the Commission shall prepare estimates to complete the GHG inventories submitted by Member States in consultation and close cooperation with the Member States concerned. In this case, the Member State shall use the gap-filled inventory in its official submission to the UNFCCC. The basis for these gap-filling processes is described in the Commission Delegated Regulation of 12.03.2014 (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/monitoring/docs/c_2014_1539_en.pdf )
Projected greenhouse gas emissions (year X–2035):
In order to ensure the timeliness, completeness, consistency, comparability, accuracy and transparency of the reporting of projections by the EU and its Member States, the quality of the reported projections is assessed by the ETC/CME on behalf of the EEA. As the Member States' reporting of projections is carried out every 2 years by countries, in certain cases, projections are adjusted to ensure full consistency with historic GHG emission data from the latest GHG inventories. Where a country has not made a submission, data are gap-filled by the ETC/CME.
Approximated greenhouse gas inventory (year X-1):
Under the MMR, the Commission shall also estimate a Member State’s approximated GHG inventory if the Member State does not provide it. These estimates are provided by the EEA and are country-specific. More information on the methodology used for gap-filling is provided in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report' of each year.
Greenhouse gas inventories
(a) Difference in methodologies between countries
Since Member States use different national methodologies, national activity data or country-specific emission factors in accordance with IPCC and UNFCCC guidelines, these different methodologies are reflected in the EU GHG inventory data. The EU believes that it is consistent with the UNFCCC reporting guidelines and the 2006 IPCCC guidelines to use different methodologies for one source category across the EU territory, especially if this helps to reduce the uncertainty and improve the consistency of the emission data, provided that each methodology is consistent with the 2006 IPCC guidelines. At the same time, the EU is making an effort to promote and support the use of higher tier methodologies across Member States. At the EU level, and for most of the key categories of the EU inventory, more than 75% of the EU emissions are calculated using higher tier methodologies, resulting in lower uncertainty rates.
(b) Global warming potential
According to the IPCC, the GWP values used in the IPCC AR4 have an uncertainty of ±35% for the 5-95% (90%) confidence range.
Projected greenhouse gas emissions
The methodology proposed consists of simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:
Several countries carry out sensitivity analyses on their projections.
Approximated greenhouse gas inventory
The uncertainty ranges estimated in the approximated GHG inventories are derived by comparing the official national data submitted to the UNFCCC in year X with the proxy estimates of the same year. The uncertainty for the approximated emissions at the EU level is estimated as the weighted mean of the differences described: weighted again by the relative contribution that each Member State makes to total EU-28 emissions. More details about these methodologies are provided each year in the 'Approximated GHG inventory report'.
The 2006 IPCC Guidelines provide approaches on how Parties should estimate uncertainties, suggesting different values for the uncertainty of activity data and emission factors for most of the emission source categories. On the basis of this guidance, EU Member States and other EEA countries perform their own assessment of the uncertainty of reported data and provide an uncertainty analysis in the National Inventory Report to account for uncertainty per source category, as well as the total uncertainty of their national inventory.
Section (1.7) of the annual EU GHG inventory report considers the uncertainty evaluation, describing the methodology used to estimate it. The results suggest that the uncertainty level in the EU is about 6 % for total GHG emissions (including LULUCF).
Total EU-28 GHG emission trends are likely to be more accurate than individual absolute annual emission estimates, because the annual values are not independent of each other. The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in total GHG emission trends is approximately 4-5%. For the EU, the trend uncertainty is estimated to be close to 1%. Total GHG emission estimates are quite reliable and the limited number of interpolations used to build the indicator do not introduce much uncertainty at the EU level.
Uncertainties in the projections of GHG emissions can be significant but have not been assessed.
The IPCC AR4 emphasizes that:
Words in bold represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. Relevant terms are explained in the Box 'Treatment of uncertainty' in the introduction to the AR4 Synthesis Report. In particular, 'very likely' corresponds to a probability of occurrence higher than 90%. This uncertainty in specific outcomes is assessed using expert judgment and statistical analysis of a body of evidence (e.g. observations or model results).
The high confidence in the responsibility of anthropogenic GHG emissions for the warming of the climate system re-emphasizes the relevance of monitoring and assessing GHG emissions trends in Europe.
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/greenhouse-gas-emission-trends-8 or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 29 Mar 2024, 03:15 AM
Engineered by: EEA Web Team
Software updated on 26 September 2023 08:13 from version 23.8.18
Software version: EEA Plone KGS 23.9.14
Document Actions
Share with others