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Indicator Assessment
Trends in annual precipitation across Europe
Note: The trends are calculated using a median of pairwise slopes algorithm. Black dots represent high confidence in the sign of the long-term trend in the box (if the 5th to 95th percentile slopes are of the same sign). Boxes which have a thick outline contain at least three stations. Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (blue line, 5.6 to 16.9 °E and 56.2 to 66.2 °N) and one in south‑western Europe (red line, 350.6 to 1.9 °E and 36.2 to 43.7 °N).
Data provenance info is missing.
Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation
Note: Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.
Past trends
Annual precipitation records averaged across Europe show no significant changes since 1950 according to the E-OBS dataset [i], based on the European Climate Assessment dataset [ii]. At the sub-continental scale, the trend in precipitation is most significant in north-eastern and south-western Europe. The majority of Scandinavia and the Baltic States have observed an increase in annual precipitation of greater than 14 mm per decade, with an increase of up to 70 mm per decade in western Norway. In contrast, annual precipitation has decreased in the Iberian Peninsula, in particular in north-western Spain and in northern Portugal (Figure 1). While there is some evidence linking land use, in particular forest cover, to local and regional precipitation patterns[iii], it is not clear if the relatively minor land-use changes since 1950 have influenced the observed precipitation trends.
Projections
Seasonal mean precipitation values and inter-annual variability is better reproduced by an ensemble of RCMs than by any single RCM [iv]. Recent work, building on the two EU-funded research projects PRUDENCE [v] and ENSEMBLES [vi] has shown that RCMs have a reasonably strong consensus across Europe in predicting changes in seasonal average rainfall [vii]. These projections indicate a general increase in annual precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The change in annual mean between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 according to the ENSEMBLES project varies between 10% and 20 % in northern Europe and between -5 to -20 % in southern Europe and the Mediterranean (Figure 2 left). Projections for summer precipitation show a decrease over southern, central and northwest Europe, which can reach of up to 60 % in parts of southern Europe. Precipitation is projected to remain constant or to increase slightly in northeast Europe [viii] (Figure 2 right).
[i] MR Haylock et al., „A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2006“, Journal of Geophysical Research 113, Nr. D20 (2008): D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD010201.
[ii] E. J. Klok and A. M. G. Klein Tank, „Updated and extended European dataset of daily climate observations.“, International Journal of Climatology 29 (2009): 1182–1191, doi:10.1002/joc.1779.
[iii] M.M. Millán, Drought in the Mediterranean and summer floods in the UK and central and eastern Europe: What global climate models cannot see regarding the hydrological cycles in Europe and why Unpublished internal Gammeltoft-RACCM CIRCE report produced for the European Commission (Brussels: EC, 2008).
[iv] Martin Beniston et al., „Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections“, Climatic Change 81, Nr. S1 (März 22, 2007): 71–95, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z; F. J. Tapiador, „A Joint Estimate of the Precipitation Climate Signal in Europe Using Eight Regional Models and Five Observational Datasets“, Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 1719–1738, doi:10.1175/2009jcli2956.1.
[v] J.H. Christensen et al., „PRUDENCE employs new methods to assess European climate change“, EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 82, Nr. 147 (2002), doi:10.1029/2002EO000094.
[vi] P., van der Linden and J.F.B. Mitchell, ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project Technical report (FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK: Met Office Hadley Centre, 2009), http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/docs/Ensembles_final_report_Nov09.pdf.
[vii] Tapiador, „A Joint Estimate of the Precipitation Climate Signal in Europe Using Eight Regional Models and Five Observational Datasets“.
[viii] P., van der Linden and J.F.B. Mitchell, ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project; Tapiador, „A Joint Estimate of the Precipitation Climate Signal in Europe Using Eight Regional Models and Five Observational Datasets“.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
Trends are calculated using a median of pairwise slopes algorithm. Black dots represent high confidence in the sign of the long-term trend in the box (if the 5th to 95th percentile slopes are of the same sign). Boxes which have a thick outline contain at least three stations. Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (Blue line, 5.6 to 16.9 °E and 56.2 to 66.2 °N) and one in south-western Europe (red line, 350.6 to 1.9 °E and 36.2 to 43.7 °N).
Projections are based on the EURO-CORDEX initiative (http://www.euro-cordex.net/). They have been obtained from different regional climate models (RCMs) performing at 11 km spatial resolution with boundary conditions from five global climate models (GCMs), using different RCPs.
Not applicable
No methodology references available.
Not applicable
Daily precipitation totals are standard meteorological measures that have been recorded systematically since the 1860s. However, despite longevity of the precipitation record in certain areas, the high spatial and temporal variability of precipitation means that the climate change signal cannot be detected with certainty in all European regions. Difficulties for detecting a significant trend can arise from the small sampling area of rain gauges, calibration errors in instrumentation, erroneous measurements during weather conditions such as snow or gales, and from limited sampling of the spatial variability of precipitation, such as in mountainous areas. Therefore, observed and projected precipitation changes should always be considered in the context of interannual variability and the measurement or modelling uncertainty.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/european-precipitation-1/assessment or scan the QR code.
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