ENSEMBLES FP6 project

External Data Reference Published 07 May 2012

EU FP6 Integrated Project ENSEMBLES (Contract number 505539)

Provider:: ENSEMBLE FP6 project
Dataset URL:: http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/
Dataset path:: http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/

Related content

Indicators using this data

Global and European temperature This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades - even centuries at some locations - and a dense network of stations across the globe, especially in Europe, provides regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. Global average annual temperature deviations, ‘anomalies’, are discussed relative to a ‘pre-industrial’ period between 1850 and 1899 (the beginning of instrumental temperature records). During this time, anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) are considered to have a relatively small influence on the climate compared to natural influences. However, it should be noted that owing to earlier changes in the climate due to internal and forced natural variability, there was not one single pre-industrial climate and it is not clear that there is a rigorous scientific definition of the term ‘pre-industrial climate’. Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system that can have an impact on human activities, including sea level, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and food productivity, and infectious diseases. In addition to the global average target, seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example, to understand the risks that current climate poses to human and natural systems and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Global and European temperatures This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades or even centuries at some locations and a dense network of stations across the globe, and especially in Europe, provide regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. This indicator provides guidance for the following policy-relevant questions: Will the global average temperature increase stay within the UNFCCC policy target of 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels? Will the rate of global average temperature increase stay below the indicative proposed target of 0.2°C increase per decade? Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system which can impact on human activities, such as sea level rise, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and crop productivity and vector-borne diseases. In consideration with the target of limiting the rise in global average temperature, understanding seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example to manage the risks that current climate poses to human and natural systems and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Global and European temperature This indicator shows absolute changes and rates of change in average near-surface temperature for the globe and for a region covering Europe. Near-surface air temperature gives one of the clearest and most consistent signals of global and regional climate change, especially in recent decades. It has been measured for many decades or even centuries at some locations and a dense network of stations across the globe, and especially in Europe, provide regular monitoring of temperature, using standardised measurements, quality control and homogeneity procedures. This indicator provides guidance for the following policy-relevant questions: Will the global average temperature increase stay within the UNFCCC policy target of 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels? Will the rate of global average temperature increase stay below the indicative proposed target of 0.2°C increase per decade? Global average annual temperature deviations, ‘anomalies’, are discussed relative to a ‘pre-industrial’ period between 1850 and 1899 (beginning of instrumental temperature records). During this time, anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the industrial revolution (between 1750 and 1850) are considered to have a relatively small influence on climate compared to natural influences. However it should be noted that owing to earlier changes in the climate due to internal and forced natural variability there was not one single pre-industrial climate and it is not clear that there is a rigorous scientific definition of the term ‘pre-industrial climate’. Temperature changes also influence other aspects of the climate system which can impact on human activities, including sea level, intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, biota and food productivity and infectious diseases. In addition to the global average target, seasonal variations and spatial distributions of temperature change are important, for example to understand the risks that current climate poses to human and natural systems and to assess how these may be impacted by future climate change.

Produced figures

Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.

Projected changes in annual, summer and winter temperature 2021-2050 (top) and 2071-2100 (bottom) Projected changes in annual near-surface air temperature (°C) using multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations for the period 2021-2050 (left) and 2071-2100 (right). Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009).

Projected changes in annual and summer precipitation between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) between 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 as simulated by ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models for the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario.

Projections of extreme temperatures as represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C) Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).

Projected changes in annual near-surface temperature for periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 Projected changes in annual near-surface air temperature (°C) using multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations for the period 2021-2050 (left) and 2071-2100 (right). Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009).

Increase in the number of combined tropical nights (minimum temperature exceeding 20 °C) and hot days (maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C) under present and future climate conditions The map is the result of climatic modelling and represents the number of combined tropical nights (T>20°C) and hot days (T>35°C) for the period 2071 to 2100

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