Harmonised in situ data on soil moisture are not available across the EU. Modelled soil moisture content has significantly decreased in the Mediterranean region and increased in parts of northern Europe since the 1950s, as a result of past warming and precipitation changes. Significant decreases in summer soil moisture content in the Mediterranean region and increases in north-eastern Europe are projected for the coming decades.

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This map compares the probability that at least one out of 11 types of adverse agroclimatic conditions occurs between sowing and majority of wheat (medium-ripening cultivar) under baseline climate (1981, black bar) and projected climate (2060, coloured box). Red boxes indicate that at least 14 out of the 16 CMIP5 models show an increased probability of adverse conditions, and orange boxes indicate that at least 9 out of 16 models show an increased probability.

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Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and the water available through precipitation. The climate forcing of the two simulations is based on the two global climate models HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project (Warszawski et al., 2014). Crop model simulations have been done with the crop model WOFOST at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and water availability, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the water available through precipitation have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of water.

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Yields of several rainfed crops are levelling off (e.g. wheat in some European countries) or decreasing (e.g. grapes in Spain), whereas yields of other crops (e.g. maize in northern Europe) are increasing. These changes are attributed partly to observed climate change, in particular warming. Extreme climatic events, including droughts and heat waves, have negatively affected crop productivity in Europe during the first decade of the 21st century. Future climate change could lead to both decreases and increases in average yield, depending on the crop type and the climatic and management conditions in the region. There is a general pattern of projected increases in productivity in northern Europe and reductions in southern Europe, but with differences between crop types. Projected increases in extreme climatic events are expected to increase crop yield variability and to lead to yield reductions in the future throughout Europe.

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The figure showns projected yield losses due to elevated ozone concentrations. The 2030 scenario assumes the implementation of current legislation for the major world regions. Positive RYL values indicate an increase in crop yield loss in 2030 compared with 2005.

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Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and the water available through precipitation. The climate forcing of the two simulations is based on the two global climate models HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project (Warszawski et al., 2014). Crop model simulations have been done with the crop model WOFOST at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and water availability, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the water available through precipitation have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of water.

Read more

This map compares the probability that at least one out of 11 types of adverse agroclimatic conditions occurs between sowing and majority of wheat (medium-ripening cultivar) under baseline climate (1981, black bar) and projected climate (2060, coloured box). Red boxes indicate that at least 14 out of the 16 CMIP5 models show an increased probability of adverse conditions, and orange boxes indicate that at least 9 out of 16 models show an increased probability.

Read more

Harmonised in situ data on soil moisture are not available across the EU. Modelled soil moisture content has significantly decreased in the Mediterranean region and increased in parts of northern Europe since the 1950s, as a result of past warming and precipitation changes. Significant decreases in summer soil moisture content in the Mediterranean region and increases in north-eastern Europe are projected for the coming decades.

Read more

Yields of several rainfed crops are levelling off (e.g. wheat in some European countries) or decreasing (e.g. grapes in Spain), whereas yields of other crops (e.g. maize in northern Europe) are increasing. These changes are attributed partly to observed climate change, in particular warming. Extreme climatic events, including droughts and heat waves, have negatively affected crop productivity in Europe during the first decade of the 21st century. Future climate change could lead to both decreases and increases in average yield, depending on the crop type and the climatic and management conditions in the region. There is a general pattern of projected increases in productivity in northern Europe and reductions in southern Europe, but with differences between crop types. Projected increases in extreme climatic events are expected to increase crop yield variability and to lead to yield reductions in the future throughout Europe.

Read more

Read more

The figure showns projected yield losses due to elevated ozone concentrations. The 2030 scenario assumes the implementation of current legislation for the major world regions. Positive RYL values indicate an increase in crop yield loss in 2030 compared with 2005.

Read more