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Indicator Specification
Sea level rise can have significant impacts on settlements, infrastructure, people and natural systems. In Europe, the potential impacts of sea level rise include flooding, coastal erosion and the submergence of flat regions along continental coastlines and on islands. Low-lying coastlines with high population densities and small tidal ranges are most vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal flooding, particularly where adaptation is hindered by a lack of economic resources or other constraints. Currently, around 200 million people live in the coastal zone in Europe.
Damage associated with sea level rise is mostly caused by extreme events, such as storm surges. Of most concern is the coincidence of a storm surge with high tidal levels, leading to extreme sea levels. In Europe, the most intense surge events typically occur during the winter months. Furthermore, the concurrence of high sea levels and heavy precipitation resulting in large run-off volumes may cause compound flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
This indicator reports changes in the frequency of historically 1-in-100-year floods along the European coastline. Such floods are caused by extreme sea levels, particularly during storm surges.
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No targets have been specified
No related policy documents have been specified
Changes in the frequency of coastal flooding are calculated by comparing the observed distributions of extreme high sea levels at European tide gauges, based on the GESLA-2 data set (Woodworth et al., 2016a, 2016b), with projected distributions under various climate change scenarios. These model projections consider changes in local mean sea levels as well as changes in the storm, wave and tidal characteristics expected to occur as a result of climate change.
Uncertainty in future projections of extreme sea level for Europe remains high and is ultimately linked to the uncertainty around future changes in mid-latitude storminess. Scientific understanding is advancing quickly in this area, as climate model representations of northern hemisphere storm track behaviour are showing improvements associated with, for instance, greater ocean and atmosphere resolution. However, the most recent global climate models have typically not yet been downscaled to suitably fine scales and used in studies of future storm surges.
Not applicable
No methodology references available.
Not applicable
No uncertainty has been specified
No uncertainty has been specified
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/storms-and-storm-surges-in-europe-2 or scan the QR code.
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