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Indicator Specification
Temperature affects human well-being and mortality. Both cold spells and heat waves have public health impact in Europe. Heat waves have caused much higher fatalities in Europe in recent decades than any other extreme weather event. For example, in Spain, extreme heat accounted for 1.6 % of all deaths in the warm seasons, and about 40 % of these deaths occurred in periods that would not be classified as heat waves, that is on isolated hot days. The largest effect was observed among the elderly, but in some cities younger adults were affected as well. Heat-related problems are largest in cities; among many interrelated factors, the urban heat island effect plays an important role. Future climate change is very likely to increase frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves. During hot weather, synergistic effects between high temperature and air pollution (PM10 and ozone) were observed. Long warm and dry periods in combination with other factors can also lead to forest fires which have shown to have severe health impacts.
Extreme cold can also significantly affect human health. Excess winter mortality in Mediterranean countries is higher than in northern European countries, and deaths often occur several days or weeks after the coldest day of a cold period.
Besides extreme temperature events, temperatures outside a local comfort temperature range are linked to increased mortality and other adverse health outcomes. Several studies found J-shaped exposure-response relationships with mortality and morbidity, increasing at both ends of the temperature scale. Effects of heat occur mostly on the same day and in the following three days whereas cold effects were largest 2–3 weeks after the event.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
City-specific estimates of the relevant parameters were obtained from 15 years (1990-2004) of data by specifying a marginal Poisson model for the daily count of deaths.
Not applicable
Not applicable
Attribution of health effects to climate change is difficult due to the complexity of interactions, and potentially modifying effects of a range of other factors (such as land use changes, public health preparedness, and socio-economic conditions). Criteria for defining a climate-sensitive health impact are not always well identified and their detection sometimes relies on complex statistical or modelling studies (e.g. health impacts of heat waves). Furthermore, these criteria as well as the completeness and reliability of observations may differ between regions and/or institutions, and they may change over time. Data availability and quality is crucial in climate change and human health assessments, both for longer term changes in climate-sensitive health outcomes, and for health impacts of extreme events. The monitoring of climate-sensitive health effects is currently fragmentary and heterogeneous. All these factors make it difficult to identify significant trends in climate-sensitive health outcomes over time, and to compare them across regions. In the absence of reliable time series, more complex approaches are often used to assess the past, current or future impacts of climate change on human health.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)
No uncertainty has been specified
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heat-and-health-1 or scan the QR code.
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