Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - CMIP5

External Data Spec Published 07 Apr 2014
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CMIP5 climate projections
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Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)
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http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/
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Produced figures

Changes in Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent as simulated by CMIP5 models over the second half of the 20th century and the whole 21st century under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. The solid curves show the multi-model means and the shading denotes the 5–95% range of the ensemble. The vertical line marks the end of CMIP5 historical climate change simulations. One ensemble member per model is taken into account in the analysis.Sea ice extent is defined as the total ocean area where sea ice concentration exceeds 15% and is calculated on the original model grids. Changes are relative to the reference period 1986–2005. The number of models available for each RCP is given in the legend. Also plotted (solid green curves) are the satellite data of Comiso and Nishio (2008, updated 2012) over 1979–2012.

Used in indicators

Ocean acidification This indicator illustrates the global mean average rate of ocean acidification, quantified by decreases in pH, which is a measure of acidity defined here as the hydrogen ion concentration. A decrease in pH value corresponds to an increase in acidity. The observed decrease in ocean pH resulting from increasing concentrations of CO 2 is an important indicator of global change. This indicator provides information on: trends in ocean acidity measured at the Aloha station; the projected change in global ocean surface acidity; yearly mean surface sea water pH levels reported on a global scale based on information from CMEMS.  
Arctic and Baltic sea ice This indicator measures: trends in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September; the maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea; projected changes in sea ice extent in the northern hemisphere in September.
Global and European sea level This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. Past sea level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The indicator also addresses changes in extreme sea level along the European coast. The following aspects of sea level rise are included: Observed change in global mean sea level, based on two reconstructions from tide gauge measurements (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Spatial trends in absolute sea level across European seas, based on satellite measurements (since 1993) Spatial trends in relative sea level across European seas, based on European tide gauge stations with long time series (since 1970) Projected change in global sea level for different forcing scenarios, including contributions from different sources Projected change in relative sea level across European seas Projected change in the frequency of flooding events along European coasts
Ocean acidification Decline in ocean acidity measured at the Aloha station Projected change in global ocean surface acidity
Snow cover Trend in spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe Trend in March snow mass in Europe (excluding mountain areas) Projected change in Northern hemisphere spring snow cover extent
Arctic and Baltic sea ice Trend in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea Projected changes in Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent
Global and European sea level This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea level rise in Europe; second, relative sea level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Furthermore, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas. The indicator also presents the contributions to past and future global sea level rise from different sources. Finally, the indicator presents information on observed and projected changes in extreme sea level along European coasts. However, due to insufficient data availability this information cannot be presented by means of figures or maps.
Global and European sea-level rise This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea-level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea-level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea-level rise in Europe; second, relative sea-level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Furthermore, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas. The indidator also presents the contributions to past and future global sea level rise from different sources. Finally, the indicator presents information on observed and projected changes in extreme sea level along European coasts. However, due to insufficient data availability this information cannot be presented by means of figures or maps.
Global and European sea-level rise This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea-level rise globally and in European seas. Global sea-level rise is reported because it is the second-most important metric of global climate change (after global mean surface temperature), and because it is a proxy of sea-level rise in Europe. Past sea-level trends across Europe are reported in two different ways: first, absolute sea level change based on satellite altimeter measurements that reflect primarily the contribution of global climate change to sea-level rise in Europe; second, relative sea-level change based on tide gauges that also include local land movement, which is more relevant for the development of regional adaptation strategies. The following components on observed sea-level rise are included: Change in global mean sea level (time series starting in 1880, in mm), based on a reconstruction from various data sources (since 1880) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993) Trend in relative sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on selected European tide gauge stations (since 1970) Trend in absolute sea level across Europe (map, in mm/year), based on satellite measurements (since 1992) In addition, this indicator informs about the contributions from various sources to the observed global sea level rise (since 1901). Finally, this indicator presents projections for sea level rise in the 21st century, both globally and for the European seas.
Ocean acidification Decline in ocean acidity
Arctic and Baltic Sea ice Trend in Arctic sea ice extent in March and September Maximum ice cover extent in the Baltic Sea Projected changes in Nothern Hemisphere sea ice extent

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