Greenhouse gas emissions from the EU’s transport increased in 2018 and 2019 and have not followed the EU’s general decreasing emissions trend. National projections compiled by the EEA suggest that transport emissions in 2030 will remain above 1990 levels, even with measures currently planned in Member States. Further action is needed particularly in road transport, the highest contributor to transport emissions, as well as aviation and shipping, where transport demand is driving emissions upward in both absolute and relative terms.
Between 1986 and 2002, the consumption of ozone-depleting substances declined significantly, falling from 343 000 ozone-depleting potential tonnes to around zero in the 28 EU Member States. This was driven by the implementation of the 1987 Montreal Protocol. Since the early 1990s, the EU has taken additional measures — set out in the EU regulation — to limit ozone-depleting substances, and has exceeded its commitments under the Montreal Protocol. Although some progress has been made towards reversing the depletion of the ozone hole, more must be done to ensure that recovery continues.
The EU is struggling to reduce its energy consumption and is at risk of not meeting its 2020 energy efficiency target. In 2019, while primary energy consumption (for all energy uses, including transformation into electricity or heat) dropped for the second consecutive year, final energy consumption (by end users) remained stable at its highest level since 2010. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to significantly reduce energy consumption in 2020. However, substantial changes in the energy system will be necessary to achieve the EU’s energy objectives and climate neutrality by 2050.
Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 decreased by 24 % between 1990 and 2019, exceeding the target of a 20 % reduction from 1990 levels by 2020. By 2030, the projections based on current and planned measures of the EU-27 show an emission reduction of 36 %, which is a rather conservative outlook in the absence of new measures. Further effort will certainly be necessary with a view to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 and the proposed increased milestone target of a 55 % reduction by 2030 (compared with 1990 and including removals).
After increasing for 13 years, fluorinated greenhouse gas (F-gas) emissions in the EU decreased for the first time in 2015, and fell by 5 % in 2018 compared to 2017. This can be partly attributed to the EU-wide hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) phase-down set out in the F-gas Regulation, which aims to reduce F-gas emissions and mitigate global warming. HFCs account for the majority of F-gas emissions and the EU is on track to meet targets and phase down HFC use by 2030. It is also on track to meet its international obligation to reduce HFC consumption, in effect since 2019, under the Montreal Protocol.
The total concentration of all greenhouse gases and other forcing agents, including cooling aerosols, reached 457 parts per million CO 2 equivalents in 2018. If this concentration continues to increase at the present decadal rate, concentrations could, in the next few years, exceed the peak level that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states should not be exceeded if — with a 67 % likelihood — the global temperature increase is to be limited to 1.5 o C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. The peak concentrations corresponding to a temperature increase of 2 o C could be exceeded before 2034.
The share of energy from renewable sources consumed in transport increased between 2005 and 2018 in the EU, from under 2 % to over 8 %. Latest EEA data indicate that in 2019 this increased further, to 8.4%, indicating continuing progress towards the target set in the Renewable Energy Directive, namely that, by 2020, 10 % of all energy used in transport should be from renewable sources. However, because several countries are far from meeting this target, reaching the 10 % goal by 2020 is unlikely, at both country and EU levels.
The EU’s power generation sector is decarbonising. The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of power generation is continuously falling across the EU. Supported by EU policies such as the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the Renewable Energy Directive and legislation addressing air pollutant emissions from industrial installations, there has been a gradual switch from coal to renewable fuels and natural gas, and the efficiency of transformation processes has improved across the sector. By 2019, the GHG emission intensity of electricity generation nearly halved compared with 1990. Were the declining trend of the past decade to continue linearly, EU electricity generation would fully decarbonise by 2050. Additional policies and measures will be needed to enhance progress, as outlined in the European Commission’s proposals to raise the EU greenhouse gas emission reductions target for 2030 from 40 % to 55 % below 1990 levels and to reach climate neutrality by 2050.
The uptake of electric vehicles in Europe is increasing, in line with the EU’s policy objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport. However, market penetration remains relatively low. In 2019, electric car registrations were close to 550 000 units, having reached 300 000 units in 2018. This represents an increase from 2 to 3.5 % of total car registrations. The uptake of electric vans also increased, from 0.8 % of total registrations in 2018 to 1.3 % in 2019. Battery electric vehicles, rather than plug-in hybrid, accounted for the majority of electric vehicle registrations in 2019 for cars and vans.
The EU is not on track to reduce the greenhouse gas emission intensity of fuels sold for road transport to 6 % below 2010 levels, as set out in its 2020 target. Between 2010 and 2018, the emission intensity decreased by 3.7 %, mostly due to the increased use of biofuels. Finland and Sweden are the only Member States whose emission intensities decreased by more than 6 %. If the indirect land use change effects of biofuel production are considered, the emission intensity of fuels sold in the EU actually increased between 2017 and 2018, because of the increased use of oil crops as feedstocks.
The average carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from new passenger cars registered in the European Union (EU), Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom (UK), increased in 2019, for the third consecutive year, rising to 122.4 grams of CO2 per kilometre.
The average CO2 emissions from new vans also increased slightly. In 2019, vans registered in the EU, Iceland, Norway and the UK emitted on average 158.4 g CO2/km, which is 0.5 grams more than in 2018.
Zero- and low-emission vehicles must be deployed much faster across Europe to achieve the targets set for cars (95 gCO2/km in 2021 — phased-in in 2020) and vans (147 gCO2/km in 2020).
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