Assessment of Future Flood Hazard in Europe Using a Large Ensemble of Bias Corrected Regional Climate Simulations

External Data Spec Published 06 Nov 2012
Key Points Future flood hazard using high-resolution bias-corrected climate simulations Large uncertainties bound to projected changes of future flood hazard Increasing trend in future flood hazard, shifting to rainfall-dominated floods
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012JD017461
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R. Rojas, L. Feyen, A. Bianchi, and A. Dosio. .

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume 117, Issue D17, D17109, 2012

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Urban areas at risk of river flooding In many parts of Europe, the risk of river flooding is expected to increase; in north-eastern Europe, the probability of floods is expected to fall. Further to climate exposure, the placement of many new urban areas and the accumulation of assets in low-lying areas close to rivers has intensified the sensitivity to river floods. The map shows the low-lying urban areas potentially threatened by river flooding in a one-in-a-century flood event, both for the current period and in the projected future. However, the map does not take into account eventual future changes in urban land-take, nor any adaptation measures like flood defences or flood retention that may lower the risk.
Projected change in average annual and seasonal river flow Projected change in mean annual and seasonal river flow between the climate change scenario (SRES A1B, 2071-2100) and the control period (1961-1990). Simulations with LISFLOOD based on an ensemble of 11 RCMs.
Projected change in river floods with a return period of 100 years Projected change in the level of a 100-year maximum level of river discharge between the reference period 1961–1990 and the 2020s (left), 2050s (centre) and 2050s (right) based on an ensemble of 12 RCM simulations with LISFLOOD for the SRES A1B scenario.
Projected change in minimum river flow with return period of 20 years Relative change in minimum river flow for a) 2020s, b) 2050s and c) 2080s compared to 1961-1990 for SRES A1B scenario.

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