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Briefing
In 2016, total GHG emissions — excluding land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) — decreased by 19.7 million tonnes to 4 441 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2e). This was equivalent to a 0.4 % reduction compared with 2015 (0.6 % excluding international aviation) and a 22.4 % reduction compared with 1990 (24 % excluding international aviation) (Figure 1). The small decrease in emissions in 2016 occurred while the EU's gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.0 %.
The United Kingdom and Spain accounted for the largest decreases in GHG emissions in absolute terms in the EU in 2016. Reductions in these countries were largely because of lower consumption of solid fuels in the power sector. On the other hand, there was a relatively large increase in emissions in Poland, particularly in the road transport sector (figure 2).
Note: Total GHG emissions shown in this figure exclude emissions from LULUCF and international aviation, and include emissions from indirect CO2. For the EU, the equivalent reduction in GHG emissions was 26.7 million tonnes in 2016.
Source: EEA
Emissions covered by the EU emissions trading system (ETS) decreased in 2016, in particular for the energy supply sector (mostly electricity and heat production) and the industry sector (mostly iron and steel). The decrease in the power sector was the result of a sharp decline in coal consumption. Based on Eurostat data, there was a decline in nuclear electricity generation. This was more than offset by the increase in the use of renewable energy sources for the same purpose.
These emission cuts in the EU ETS sectors were partly offset by emission increases in sectors not covered by the ETS:
Overall, these developments mean that in 2016, the EU continued to decouple its GHG from gross domestic product (GDP), improved the energy intensity of its economy and reduced the carbon intensity of its energy system compared with 2015.
Although the 2016 developments are positive, there are indications that GHG emissions increased in 2017 (e.g. higher verified emissions under the ETS and the CO2 early estimates by Eurostat). The consolidated results for GHG emissions in 2017 will be published by the EEA during the autumn, as part of the Approximated EU greenhouse gas inventory.
Note: The sectoral aggregations are:
International aviation, international shipping and CO2 biomass are Memorandum items not included in national GHG totals.
Source: EEA
Total GHG emissions in the EU (excluding LULUCF) decreased by 1 279 Mt CO2e in 2016, representing a reduction of 22.4 % compared with 1990. The reduction amounts to 24 % (1 358 Mt CO2e) if emissions from international aviation are excluded.
The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over these 26 years can be explained by a variety of factors, including:
GHG emissions decreased in the majority of sectors between 1990 and 2016, with the notable exception of domestic and international transport (Figure 3). Emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used for refrigeration also increased over the 26-year period. The largest emission reductions were related to energy use in sectors such as manufacturing industries and construction, electricity and heat production, and residential combustion. The largest decrease in emissions in relative terms occurred in waste management, through reduced and better controlled landfilling.
Almost all EU Member States reduced their emissions and thus contributed to the overall positive EU performance, with the United Kingdom and Germany accounting for almost half of the total net reduction in the EU over the past 26 years.
Figure 4 shows a comparison of key drivers underpinning GHG emissions in three different periods (1990-2005, 2005-2015 and 2015-2030), based on information reported by EU Member States.
Overall, the four main findings are:
Thus, the same factors driving emission reductions in the past are also expected to play a key role in the future, although to a different degree. For the EU as whole, the provisional overall estimates for GHG emission reductions by 2030 (with existing policies and measures), as reported by Member States, are consistent with a 30 % reduction compared with 1990 (excluding LULUCF, including international aviation). Whereas the EU is on track to achieve its 20 % GHG reduction target by 2020, more efforts to reduce GHG emissions will be needed to achieve its reduction target of at least 40 % by 2030. These results suggest that efforts should, together with lower energy intensity and higher efficiency, concentrate on further improving the carbon intensity of energy production and consumption. There is also room to increase emission reduction efforts in non-energy sectors.
Note: The decomposition analysis is based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI). The bar segments show the changes associated with each factor alone, holding the other respective factors constant. Projections at EU level have been aggregated based on Member States' submissions under EU reporting requirements. GHG emission projections in this figure refer to those in the 'with existing measures' scenario. The EU Reference Scenario 2016 from the European Commission (based on the PRIMES and GAINS models) was used to gap-fill incomplete reporting for specific Member States' variables.
Source: EEA
Briefing no. 05/2018
Title: Trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU in 2016
PDF TH-AM-18-007-EN-N - ISBN 978-92-9213-965-0 - ISSN 2467-3196 - doi:10.2800/691394
HTML TH-AM-18-007-EN-Q - ISBN 978-92-9213-964-3 - ISSN 2467-3196 - doi:10.2800/184396
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/trends-and-drivers-in-greenhouse/eu-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2016 or scan the QR code.
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