Wind — severe windstorms
Key messages
- Limited data and inherent weaknesses in current climate models make projections for extreme wind more uncertain than for other climate hazards.
- There is moderate confidence in projections that the frequency and intensity of storms will increase in northern and central Europe. For southern Europe, storm intensity is expected to increase but with a decrease in their frequency.
Extreme wind speed days
Definition
The extreme wind speed days index counts the number of days with daily maximum wind speeds above the 98th percentile, computed over the reference period. Variants of the index can adopt different percentile-based thresholds for identifying the extreme conditions.
Index factsheet (ETC/CCA Technical Paper): Extreme wind speed days
Relevance
The index can be easily interpreted and used in applications related to the design and maintenance of buildings, energy and transport infrastructure, and forest management.
Past and projected changes
Because of the limited availability of data from observations and the high degree of uncertainty associated with model projections of extreme wind speed, this index is not currently covered in any Copernicus Climate Change Service (CS3) Climate Data Store (CDS) data set.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2021: Climate change information for regional impact and for risk assessment, Section 12.4.5) finds with medium confidence that the frequency and intensity of storms, including strong winds and extra-tropical storms, is likely to increase in northern and central Europe. For southern Europe, storm intensity is expected to increase and storm frequency to decrease.
Chapters of the Europe's changing climate hazards report
- What will the future bring when it comes to climate hazards? — Overview
- Europe’s changing climate hazards — about the report
- Explore the hazards and the indices related to the six categories:
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Geographic coverage
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-changing-climate-hazards-1/wind/wind-severe-windstorms or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 27 Jan 2023, 10:39 AM
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