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Indicator Assessment
Number of people affected by flooding per million population in the WHO European Region
Note: Number of people affected by flooding per million population in the WHO European Region (total over the period 2000–2011). ‘People affected’, as defined in EM-DAT, are people who require immediate assistance during a period of emergency, including displaced or evacuated people. EM-DAT/CRED and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory were analysed to determine the flooded countries in the WHO European Region and the impact of these floods.
Data provenance info is missing.
Past trends
Estimates for the WHO European Region based on a combination of data from EM-DAT and DFO indicate that floods have killed more than 1 000 people and affected 3.4 million others in the period 2000–2009. Deaths from flooding were highest (on a per capita basis) in central and eastern Europe [i]. Figure 1 shows the number of people affected by flooding in the same period. The largest numbers (on a per capita basis) are found in south-eastern Europe, eastern Europe and central Europe.
Projections
Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent in many regions in Europe. In the absence of adaptation, river flooding is estimated to affect 250 000 to 400 000 additional people per year in Europe by the 2080s, which corresponds to more than a doubling with respect to the 1961–1990 period. The increase is projected in central Europe and the British Isles[ii].
The PESETA project estimated that up to an additional 1.6 million people each year in the northern Mediterranean, and northern and western Europe would experience coastal flooding by 2080 under the SRES A1FI scenario, unless additional adaptation measures were taken. The number of people affected by coastal flooding in the EU ranges between 775 000 to 5.5 million people, depending on the emissions scenario[iii]. Under the high sea-level rise scenario (B2), mental health impacts of coastal flooding in the EU could potentially reach five million additional cases of mild depression annually in the period 2071–2100; impacts presumably significantly reduced with adaptation[iv].
According to the SRES A1B scenario, climate and socio-economic change would lead in the EU to 650 deaths per year by the 2080s due to coastal flooding. Two thirds of these deaths would occur in western Europe. These estimates decrease significantly under the E1 mitigation scenario to 185 (2080s) fatalities per year. Coastal adaptation measures can significantly reduce risks to less than 10 deaths per year in 2080 (from 650 without adaptation) [v].
[i] WHO and HPA, Floods: Health effects and prevention in the WHO European Region (World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe; Health Protection Agency, UK, Forthcoming).
[ii] WHO and HPA, Floods: Health effects and prevention in the WHO European Region.
[iii] J.C. Ciscar et al., „Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe“, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, Nr. 7 (Januar 31, 2011): 2678–2683, doi:10.1073/pnas.1011612108.
[iv] Paul Watkiss and Alistair Hunt, „Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health“, Climatic Change 112, Nr. 1 (2012): 101–126, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0342-z.
[v] S Kovats et al., The Impacts and Economic Costs on Health in Europe and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation, Results of the EC RTD ClimateCost Project Technical Policy Briefing Note 5:, 2011.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
‘People affected’, as defined in EM-DAT database, are people who require immediate assistance during a period of emergency, including displaced or evacuated people.
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Attribution of health effects to climate change is difficult due to the complexity of interactions, and potentially modifying effects of a range of other factors (such as land use changes, public health preparedness, and socio-economic conditions). Criteria for defining a climate-sensitive health impact are not always well identified and their detection sometimes relies on complex statistical or modelling studies (e.g. health impacts of heat waves). Furthermore, these criteria as well as the completeness and reliability of observations may differ between regions and/or institutions, and they may change over time. Data availability and quality is crucial in climate change and human health assessments, both for longer term changes in climate-sensitive health outcomes, and for health impacts of extreme events. The monitoring of climate-sensitive health effects is currently fragmentary and heterogeneous. All these factors make it difficult to identify significant trends in climate-sensitive health outcomes over time, and to compare them across regions. In the absence of reliable time series, more complex approaches are often used to assess the past, current or future impacts of climate change on human health.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/floods-and-health/assessment or scan the QR code.
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