Figure

Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios.

Figure Created 02 Aug 2016 Published 20 Dec 2016 Last modified 28 Mar 2022

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Topics: Climate change adaptation

Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and the water available through precipitation. The climate forcing of the two simulations is based on the two global climate models HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project (Warszawski et al., 2014). Crop model simulations have been done with the crop model WOFOST at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and water availability, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the water available through precipitation have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of water.

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Methodology:: The crop water deficit was calculated as the difference between total crop water requirement (in this case for grain maize) and the total rainfall during the growing season. The growing season has been defined as the period between grain maize emergence and physiological maturity, as simulated by the WOFOST crop model. The climate data, used to force the WOFOST crop model, have been obtained from the two Global Climate Model simulations HadGEM2-ES (Jones et al., 2011) and MIROC-ESM-CHEM (Watanabe et al., 2011), using the high-end emission scenario RCP8.5 (Moss et al., 2010). GCM simulations have been bias-corrected in the ISI-MIP project (Warszawski et al., 2014). The scenario period considered is 2015-2045, for which the values of the linear regression have been estimated for each grid point.
References: Jones, C. D., et al., 2011. The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 543–570, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-543-2011
Moss RH et al. 2010. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., Schewe, J., 2014. The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework. PNAS, 111, 3228-3232
Watanabe S et al., 2011. MIROC-ESM: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci Model Dev Discuss 4:1063–1128. doi:10.5194/gmdd-4-1063-2011
Units:: m3 / ha / year
Rights:: EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: Joint Research Centre (JRC).
Owners:: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Processors:: European Environment Agency (EEA)
Figure type:: Map

Additional information

The resulting simulations are provided in geotiff file (trend values) and shapefile. The shapefile contains the information on the regions where the crop water requirement during the reference period (1985-2014) frequently (i.e. in more than 90 % of years) exceeds the total growing season rainfall cumulates. The scientific publication presenting these results is in preparation.

Temporal coverage:

* 1985-2014 (for areas where currently the crop water demand frequently exceeds the rainfall cumulates, i.e. the hatches).
* 2015-2045 (the scenario period considered for estimation of future trends in crop water deficit).

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