Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016

Publication Created 11 Feb 2016 Published 25 Jan 2017
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This report is an indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and society. It also looks at society’s vulnerability to these impacts and at the development of adaptation policies and the underlying knowledge base. This is the fourth ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe’ report, which is published every four years. This edition aims to support the implementation and review process of the 2013 EU Adaptation Strategy, which is foreseen for 2018, and the development of national and transnational adaptation strategies and plans.
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Publication Created 11 Feb 2016 Published 25 Jan 2017
1 min read
EEA Report No 1/2017
This report is an indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and society. It also looks at society’s vulnerability to these impacts and at the development of adaptation policies and the underlying knowledge base. This is the fourth ‘Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe’ report, which is published every four years. This edition aims to support the implementation and review process of the 2013 EU Adaptation Strategy, which is foreseen for 2018, and the development of national and transnational adaptation strategies and plans.

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    Data visualisations

    Time series of Baltic Sea Vibrio cases Time series of Baltic Sea Vibrio cases
    Observed change in global mean sea level Observed change in global mean sea level
    Species-specific trends of spring leaf unfolding Species-specific trends of spring leaf unfolding
    Annual average sea surface temperature anomaly Annual average sea surface temperature anomaly
    Time series of global ocean heat content at different depths Time series of global ocean heat content at different depths
    Decline in ocean pH measured at the Aloha station Decline in ocean pH measured at the Aloha station A decline in pH corresponds to an increase in the acidity of ocean water. Data originate from the Aloha station pH time series. Changes here are similar to those that are observed at a shorter time scale in Europe.
    Trend in snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe Trend in snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe This figure shows satellite-derived time series of snow cover extent for the period 1967–2015 over the Northern Hemisphere (left) and Europe (right). The time series for the Northern Hemisphere is extended back to 1922 by including reconstructed historical estimates.
    Trend in March snow mass in Europe (excluding mountain areas) Trend in March snow mass in Europe (excluding mountain areas)
    Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers The figure shows the cumulative specific net mass balance of selected European glaciers, i.e. the change in glacier mass since the first year of their assessment. The start of the time series varies between glaciers.
    Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea Maximum extent of ice cover in the Baltic Sea
    Arctic sea ice extent Arctic sea ice extent This chart shows trend lines and observation points for March (the month of sea ice extent maximum) and September (the month of sea ice extent minimum) have been indicated.
    Time series of population-weighted heating and cooling degree days averaged over Europe Time series of population-weighted heating and cooling degree days averaged over Europe
    Number of severe floods in Europe Number of severe floods in Europe
    Annual projected changes in temperature and precipitation for northern Europe and southern Europe and for two time periods Annual projected changes in temperature and precipitation for northern Europe and southern Europe and for two time periods
    Global average near surface temperatures relative to the pre-industrial period Global average near surface temperatures relative to the pre-industrial period
    European average temperatures over land areas relative to the pre-industrial period European average temperatures over land areas relative to the pre-industrial period
    Economic damage caused by natural hazards by year and by hazard category Economic damage caused by natural hazards by year and by hazard category
    Natural hazards in EEA member countries Natural hazards in EEA member countries
    Trend in snow cover extent in Europe Trend in snow cover extent in Europe
    Projected change in global ocean surface pH Projected change in global ocean surface pH
    Projected changes in Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent Projected changes in Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent
    Projected change in the volume of mountain glaciers and ice caps in European glaciated regions Projected change in the volume of mountain glaciers and ice caps in European glaciated regions
    Projected change in Northern hemisphere spring snow cover extent Projected change in Northern hemisphere spring snow cover extent
    Burnt forest area in five southern European countries Burnt forest area in five southern European countries
    Number of climate extremes by loss category over time Number of climate extremes by loss category over time Number of events per loss category and per year.

    Figures used

    Monitoring, reporting and evaluation systems for adaptation in Europe Monitoring, reporting and evaluation systems for adaptation in Europe This map is derived from a combination of verified output of EEA's 2014 self-assessment survey (i.e. countries assessing themselves on the basis of a questionnaire; EEA, 2014) and update by member countries as of mid-October 2015. This map shows in green the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
    Multi-sectoral hotspots of climate impacts under a 2 degree warming Multi-sectoral hotspots of climate impacts under a 2 degree warming The maps (based on gridded data) show the projected multi-sectoral climate impacts under a 2 degree warming. Considered in the analysis are the following sectors: water, agriculture, ecosystems and human health.
    Projected changes in habitat suitability for two major forest pests Projected changes in habitat suitability for two major forest pests
    Trends in annual (a) and summer (b) precipitation across Europe between 1960 and 2015 Trends in annual (a) and summer (b) precipitation across Europe between 1960 and 2015 Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box. Significant (at the 5% level) long-term trend is shown by a black dot .
    Projected changes in the frequency of adverse weather events relevant for transport across Europe Projected changes in the frequency of adverse weather events relevant for transport across Europe The map base are the climatic regions in Europe. The map considers 6 extreme weather events and their probability of occurrence in future (2050 and beyond), and their probability of impacting on transport infrastructure (3 threshold levels: 33%, 66%, 99%).
    Macro Regions in Europe and Arctic Macro Regions in Europe and Arctic Polygons have been created for the CCIV-2016 report. The polygons have no clear definition and should not be regarded as defined legal boundaries.
    Aggregated cross-sectoral vulnerability in the 2050s from an ecosystem service perspective Aggregated cross-sectoral vulnerability in the 2050s from an ecosystem service perspective The map is based on gridded data and shows multi-sectoral vulnerability from an ecosystem service assessment perspective.
    Current estimation of and projected changes in coping capacity of European regions Current estimation of and projected changes in coping capacity of European regions This map shows current and projected estimates of the capacity of regions to cope with climate change impacts for two different time horizons (2020 and 2050) and for different scenarios based on the CLIMSAVE project.
    Urban areas at risk of river flooding Urban areas at risk of river flooding In many parts of Europe, the risk of river flooding is expected to increase; in north-eastern Europe, the probability of floods is expected to fall. Further to climate exposure, the placement of many new urban areas and the accumulation of assets in low-lying areas close to rivers has intensified the sensitivity to river floods. The map shows the low-lying urban areas potentially threatened by river flooding in a one-in-a-century flood event, both for the current period and in the projected future. However, the map does not take into account eventual future changes in urban land-take, nor any adaptation measures like flood defences or flood retention that may lower the risk.
    Projected changes in global average surface temperature and precipitation Projected changes in global average surface temperature and precipitation Hatching indicates regions where the multi- model mean signal is less than 1 standard deviation of internal variability. Stippling indicates regions where the multi- model mean signal is greater than 2 standard deviations of internal variability and where 90% of models agree on the sign of change.
    Projected impacts of climate change on electricity production from different sources in four European regions Projected impacts of climate change on electricity production from different sources in four European regions This map shows the projected impacts of climate change on electricity production from four different sources in four European regions. Green denotes positive impacts whereas red denotes negative impacts.
    Key observed and projected climate change and impacts for the main regions in Europe Key observed and projected climate change and impacts for the main regions in Europe The map shows the observed and projected climate change and impacts for the main biogeographical regions in Europe
    Annual number of nights of thermal discomfort Annual number of nights of thermal discomfort The map shows that southern cities can experience daytime conditions that represent slight to moderate heat stress at the very least. Many southern cities have also a high share of elderly people. The map does not yet show future projections of thermal discomfort in cities, although it is expected that discomfort in more northern cities will increase.
    Projected multi-hazard exposure for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s Projected multi-hazard exposure for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s The map is based on gridded data and shows the results of a multi-hazard assessment, considering the following seven hazards: heat waves, cold waves, droughts, wildfires, river floods, coastal floods and windstorms. The maps shows by how many hazards each grid cell is projected to be affected.
    Farming systems from SEAMLESS project Farming systems from SEAMLESS project The map shows the farming systems in Europe and location of MASCUR regional pilot studies based on the NUTS level 1.
    Transport vulnerability studies in EEA countries Transport vulnerability studies in EEA countries The map provides a simple overview which EEA member countries have conducted detailed studies, general studies or no studies on the vulnerability of the transport sector to climate change.
    Locations of stations with temperature and precipitation data Locations of stations with temperature and precipitation data Stations available in the European Climate Assessment and Datasets (ECA&D) (with different lengths of records) for daily mean temperature and daily precipitation amount. Green dots represent downloadable data and red dots present station used in addition in gridded products.
    Largest European trade import flows and global climate change vulnerability Largest European trade import flows and global climate change vulnerability The map shows the estimated climate vulnerability, and the EU imports from outside the EU (largest import countries only)
    Trends in annual and summer precipitation across Europe between 1960 and 2015 Trends in annual and summer precipitation across Europe between 1960 and 2015 Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box. A black dot indicates that the long-term trend is significant at the 5% level. The classes for annual and summer precipitation differ (by factor 4) because annual precipitation covers 12 months whereas summer precipitation covers 3 months only.
    Observed annual median and trend of the Mean Potential Hail Index (PHI) over the period 1951-2010 Observed annual median and trend of the Mean Potential Hail Index (PHI) over the period 1951-2010 Based on the logistic hail model (Mohr, Kunz, and Geyer, 2015) and reanalysis data from NCEP-NCAR (Kalnay, et al., 1996). Trends with significance below the 5% level are cross-hatched. Note that significant trends are only found for values below -5 PHI over the period.
    Observed trends in maximum annual five-day consecutive precipitation in winter and summer Observed trends in maximum annual five-day consecutive precipitation in winter and summer Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box. Significant (at the 5% level) long-term trend is shown by a black dot.
    Trends in summer soil moisture in Europe Trends in summer soil moisture in Europe Soil moisture content was modelled using a soil moisture balance model in the upper soil horizons (up to 1 m).
    Current and projected risk of vibriosis infections in the Baltic Sea region Current and projected risk of vibriosis infections in the Baltic Sea region The left panel shows a risk model map during summer 2006 and the number of cases in countries reporting infections. The right panel shows a projection of the risk of infection in 2050.
    Trend in relative sea level at selected European tide gauge stations Trend in relative sea level at selected European tide gauge stations
    Trend in absolute sea level across Europe based on satellite measurements Trend in absolute sea level across Europe based on satellite measurements Spatial distribution of mean sea level trend in European Seas (1992–2014).
    Change in the frequency of flooding events under projected sea level rise Change in the frequency of flooding events under projected sea level rise This map shows the estimated multiplication factor, by which the frequency of flooding events of a given height changes between 2010 and 2100 due to projected regional sea relative level rise under the RCP4.5 scenario. Values larger than 1 indicate an increase in flooding frequency
    Model-based estimate of past change in summer low flows Model-based estimate of past change in summer low flows This map shows the ensemble mean trend in summer low flow from 1963 to 2000. ‘x’ denotes grid cells where less than three- quarters of the hydrological models agree on the direction of the trend.
    Projected change in the frequency of meteorological droughts Projected change in the frequency of meteorological droughts The maps show changes in the frequency of meteorological droughts for two future periods (2041-2070, left and 2071-2100, right) and for two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, top and RCP8.5, bottom). Drought frequency is defined as the number of months in a 30 year period with the Standardised Precipitation Index accumulated over a 6 month period (SPI-6) having a value below -2.
    Observed trends in frequency and severity of meteorological droughts Observed trends in frequency and severity of meteorological droughts Trends in frequency (upper) and severity (lower) of meteorological droughts between 1950 and 2012. Trends are based on a combination of three different drought indices - SPI, SPEI and RDI accumulated over 12-month periods. Dots: trends significant at ≥ 95%.
    Trend in heating and cooling degree days (1981-2014) Trend in heating and cooling degree days (1981-2014) This map shows observed linear trends in heating degree days (left) and cooling degree days (right) over 1981–2014 for all EEA member and cooperating countries. Stippling depicts regions where the trend is statistically significant at the 5% level.
    Projected change in 20 year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate change and changes in water use Projected change in 20 year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate change and changes in water use Differences between the end of the 21st century (SRES A1B scenario) and the control period (1961-1990) for minimum discharges (left) and change in occurrence of deficits (right) for climate change only (top row) and a combination of climate change and water use (bottom row).
    Projected change in mean water-limited yield of winter wheat by 2030 Projected change in mean water-limited yield of winter wheat by 2030 Simulated change in mean water-limited crop yield of winter wheat between the baseline period around year 2000 and 2030. The four simulations are a combination of two climate models (HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 archive and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project), and the crop model WOFOST at 25 km spatial resolution, with and without taking into account the effect of CO2 fertilization. Crop variety and agro-management practice have been kept constant. For each time horizon of 2000 and 2030, a 30-year averaging period has been considered. Red colours show a reduction in winter wheat yield, while green colours indicate an increase in crop productivity in the given period as a response to the climate signal of each climate scenario (Araujo Enciso et al., 2014).
    Trend in crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season Trend in crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season Annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season for the period 1985-2014 in Europe. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and available water through precipitation. The simulation is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and the available water, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the available water (through precipitation) have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water in their crop water balance. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of available water.
    Trend in flowering date of winter wheat Trend in flowering date of winter wheat This figure shows the rate of change of the flowering date for winter wheat. The annual rate of change of the flowering date represents the trend coefficient for long-term changes in the occurrence of flowering of winter wheat in Europe. For example, a value -0.6 indicates that in last 30 years the winter wheat flowering date has been anticipated on average by 0.6 days per year (6 days in 10 years). The flowering date is derived from crop growth models simulating crop development of winter wheat as a function of the temperature sum. The simulation is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution.
    Probability of the occurrence of adverse agroclimatic conditions for wheat under baseline and projected climate Probability of the occurrence of adverse agroclimatic conditions for wheat under baseline and projected climate This map compares the probability that at least one out of 11 types of adverse agroclimatic conditions occurs between sowing and majority of wheat (medium-ripening cultivar) under baseline climate (1981, black bar) and projected climate (2060, coloured box). Red boxes indicate that at least 14 out of the 16 CMIP5 models show an increased probability of adverse conditions, and orange boxes indicate that at least 9 out of 16 models show an increased probability.
    Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and the water available through precipitation. The climate forcing of the two simulations is based on the two global climate models HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project (Warszawski et al., 2014). Crop model simulations have been done with the crop model WOFOST at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and water availability, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the water available through precipitation have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of water.
    Projected change in the climatic suitability for Chikungunya transmission Projected change in the climatic suitability for Chikungunya transmission The maps shows the risk for Chikungunya transmission in Europe generated by combining temperature requirements of the Chikungunya virus with the climatic suitability of the vector Aedes albopictus. Projections for different time-frames are based on projections by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for two emission scenarios (A1B, a medium scenario and B1, a low scenario). The "current situation" refers to the 1960-1990 baseline climate.
    Associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities Associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities Exposure-response associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities, together with related temperatures distributions. The shaded grey area delineates the 95 % empirical confidence interval. Solid grey vertical lines are minimum mortality temperatures and dashed grey vertical lines delineate the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile temperatures.
    Deaths related to flooding in Europe Deaths related to flooding in Europe This map shows the number of deaths related to flooding per million inhabitants (cumulative over the period 1991–2015, with respect to 2015 population).
    Current European distribution of Ixodus ricinus ticks Current European distribution of Ixodus ricinus ticks The maps displays information and the prsence/absence of Ixodes ricinus RED The species is known to have been present at least in one municipality within the administrative unit. YELLOW The species has been introduced in the administrative unit without confirmed establishment. LIGHT GREY No information is available on the existence of field studies on ticks.
    Current distribution of West Nile Virus infections Current distribution of West Nile Virus infections Districts with probable and confirmed cases of West Nile infections
    Known distribution of the tiger mosquito in Europe (Aedes albopictus) Known distribution of the tiger mosquito in Europe (Aedes albopictus) The maps displays information and the presence/absence of Aedes albopictus. RED: An established population (evidence of reproduction and overwintering) of the species has been observed in at least one municipality within the administrative unit. YELLOW: The species has been introduced (but without confirmed establishment) in the administrative unit within the last 5 years of the distribution status date DARK GREEN: Field surveys or studies on mosquitoes were conducted and no introduction (during the last 5 years) or no established population of the species have been reported MEDIUM GREY: No data for the last 5 years are available to local experts LIGHT GREY: No information is available about field studies on mosquitoes during the last 5 years.
    Current and projected state and trend of fire danger Current and projected state and trend of fire danger Forest fire danger is expressed by the average Seasonal Severity Rating index (derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System). Average 2071-2100 SSR levels are shown in the map. The SSR series was computed usign the GCM-RCM run KNMI-RACMO2-ECHAM5 of ENSEMBLES project.
    Projected changes in climatic suitability for broadleaf and needleleaf trees Projected changes in climatic suitability for broadleaf and needleleaf trees The two panels indicate to what degree broadleaf (left panel) and needleleaf (right panel) tree species are expected to increase (blue) or decrease (brown) in numbers. The results represent species distribution modelling, using climate projections from six regional climate models using the A1B scenario of future emissions.
    Projected change in Bumblebee climatically suitable areas Projected change in Bumblebee climatically suitable areas The map shows the projected change in the climatic suitable area for the Bumblebee Bombus terrestris (the largest and one of the most numerous bumblebee species in Europe) under the combined climate-land use scenario SEDG (Sustainable European Development Goal, including SRES B1) and GRAS (including SRES A2).
    Model-based estimate of past change in annual river flows Model-based estimate of past change in annual river flows The pronounced dipole pattern found for the annual flow trends appears to reflect the wetting trend pattern of the winter period (ca. December to April) in the north and northwest and the widespread drying trend pattern from late winter to late summer (ca. February–August) in southern and parts of eastern Europe
    Projected change in seasonal streamflow for twelve rivers Projected change in seasonal streamflow for twelve rivers This figure shows the projected change in seasonal streamflow (averaged over seven days) for twelve rivers.
    Projected change in river floods with a return period of 100 years Projected change in river floods with a return period of 100 years 100-year daily peak flow (Q100). Relative change for the time slices 2006-2035, 2036-2065 and 2066–2095 compared to the ensemble mean of the baseline (1976–2005), based on an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios. Data points with CV>1 are greyed out. (CV = coefficient of variation)
    Distribution of oxygen-depleted 'dead zones' in European seas Distribution of oxygen-depleted 'dead zones' in European seas Circles depict scientifically reported accounts of eutrophication-associated dead zones. The area covered by 'dead zones' is not presented, as such information is not generally available.
    Development of oxygen depletion in the Baltic Sea over time Development of oxygen depletion in the Baltic Sea over time Spatial distribution of bottom hypoxia and anoxia in 1906 (left), 1955 (centre) and 2012 (right). Estimated bottom oxygen concentrations below 2 mg per litre are shown in red; black depicts the absence of oxygen. The spatial distribution represents means across all months.
    Calanus ratio in the North Sea Calanus ratio in the North Sea Continuous Plankton Recorder data
    Trend in the number of frost-free days Trend in the number of frost-free days The annual rate of change of frost-free days represents the trend coefficient for long-term changes in the annual number of days with a minimum daily temperature above 0 °C. For example, a value of 1 indicates that the number of frost-free days has increased on average by 1 day per year in last 30 years (period 1985-2014). The analysis is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution.
    Projected future distribution of West Nile Virus infections Projected future distribution of West Nile Virus infections
    Trends in annual temperature across Europe between 1960 and 2015 Trends in annual temperature across Europe between 1960 and 2015 Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box. A significant (at the 5 % level) long-term trend is shown by a black dot.
    Observed trends in warm days across Europe between 1960 and 2015 Observed trends in warm days across Europe between 1960 and 2015 How to read the map: Warm days are defined as being above the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature. Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box. A significant (at the 5 % level) long-term trend is shown by a black dot
    Number of extreme heat waves in future climates under two different climate forcing scenarios Number of extreme heat waves in future climates under two different climate forcing scenarios The top maps show the median of the number of heat waves in a multi-model ensemble of the near future (2020–2052) and the latter half of the century (2068–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and the lower maps are for the same time periods but under RCP8.5
    Projected change in summer soil moisture Projected change in summer soil moisture Changes are presented as mean multi-model change between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 using 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs); with red indicating drier and blue indicating wetter conditions.
    Projected changes in heavy precipitation in winter and summer Projected changes in heavy precipitation in winter and summer Projected changes in heavy precipitation (in %) in winter and summer from 1971-2000 to 2071–2100 for the RCP8.5 scenario based on the ensemble mean of different regional climate models (RCMs) nested in different general circulation models (GCMs).
    Projected changes in annual, summer and winter temperature Projected changes in annual, summer and winter temperature Projected changes in annual (left), summer (middle) and winter (right) near-surface air temperature (°C) in the period 2071-2100, compared with the baseline period 1971-2000 for the forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 (top) and RCP 8.5 (bottom). Model simulations are based on the multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative.
    Projected change in relative sea level Projected change in relative sea level The map shows the projected change in relative sea level in 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005 for the medium-low emission scenario RCP4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models. Projections consider land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment but not land subsidence due to human activities. No projections are available for the Black Sea.
    Projected change in annual and summer precipitation Projected change in annual and summer precipitation Projected changes in annual (left) and summer (right) precipitation (%) in the period 2071-2100 compared to the baseline period 1971-2000 for the forcing scenario RCP 8.5. Model simulations are based on the multi-model ensemble average of RCM simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative.
    Projected changes in the tourism climatic index for all seasons Projected changes in the tourism climatic index for all seasons Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) for four seasons in the present period (1961–1990, left), under future climate change (2071–2100, middle), and change between present and future period (left). Future climate conditions are based on the SRES A2 scenario and derived from the ensemble mean of five regional climate models (RCMs) that participated in the PRUDENCE project.
    Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Europe Climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Europe This figure shows the climatic suitability for the mosquitos Aedes aegypti (left) and Aedes albopictus (right) in Europe. Darker to lighter green indicates conditions not suitable for the vector whereas yellow to red colours indicate conditions that are increasingly suitable for the vector. Grey indicates that no prediction is possible.
    Projected changes in water-limited crop yield Projected changes in water-limited crop yield This map provides an aggregated picture of expected changes in crop yields across Europe for the 2050s (compared with 1961–1990). The simulations by the ClimateCrop model are based on an ensemble of 12 GCMs under the A1B emission scenario. They include effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration on crop yields of three main crops assuming current irrigated area.
    European variations in the temporal trend of bird and butterfly community temperature index European variations in the temporal trend of bird and butterfly community temperature index The map shows the temporal trend of bird and butterfly CTI for each country. A temporal increase in CTI directly reflects that the species assemblage of the site is increasingly composed of individuals belonging to species dependent on higher temperature. The height of a given arrow is proportional to the temporal trend and its direction corresponds to the sign of the slope (from south to north for positive slopes). The arrow is opaque if the trend is significant.
    Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles Ensemble mean of changes in extreme wind speed (defined as the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) for A1B (2071–2100) relative to 1961–2000. Left: based on 9 GCMs. Right: based on 11 RCMs. Coloured areas indicate the magnitude of change (unit: m/s), statistical significance above 0.95 is shown by black dots.
    Vulnerability of forests in the Carpathian region Vulnerability of forests in the Carpathian region Map represents relative vulnerability of Carpathians forests to climate change evaluated in the frame of geomorphologic units on the basis of several indicators of climatic exposure, forest climatic sensitivity and social- economic adaptive capacity.
    Urban areas at risk of forest fire Urban areas at risk of forest fire The map provides an overview of the extent of urban areas at higher risk of being directly affected by forest fires (burning down) under current conditions.

    News and articles

    Understanding and acting on the complexity of climate change Understanding and acting on the complexity of climate change Climate change is one of the most important challenges of our time. Its impacts are felt across the globe, affecting people, nature and the economy. To mitigate climate change, we need to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases significantly. Translating this overall objective into concrete measures requires understanding a complex system linking emissions from different sources to national and regional impacts, global governance and potential co-benefits. The European Environment Agency strives to continuously improve the knowledge needed for designing effective measures on the ground.
    Climate change and water — Warmer oceans, flooding and droughts Climate change and water — Warmer oceans, flooding and droughts Climate change is increasing the pressure on water bodies. From floods and droughts to ocean acidification and rising sea levels, the impacts of climate change on water are expected to intensify in the years ahead. These changes are prompting action across Europe. Cities and regions are already adapting, using more sustainable, nature-based solutions to lessen the impact of floods and using water in smarter, more sustainable ways to enable us to live with droughts.
    Energy and climate change Energy and climate change Mitigating and adapting to climate change are key challenges of the 21st century. At the core of these challenges is the question of energy — more precisely, our overall energy consumption and our dependence on fossil fuels. To succeed in limiting global warming, the world urgently needs to use energy efficiently while embracing clean energy sources to make things move, heat up and cool down. The European Union policies play an important role in facilitating this energy transition.
    Climate change poses increasingly severe risks for ecosystems, human health and the economy in Europe Climate change poses increasingly severe risks for ecosystems, human health and the economy in Europe Europe’s regions are facing rising sea levels and more extreme weather, such as more frequent and more intense heatwaves, flooding, droughts and storms due to climate change, according to a European Environment Agency report published today. The report assesses the latest trends and projections on climate change and its impacts across Europe and finds that better and more flexible adaptation strategies, policies and measures will be crucial to lessen these impacts.

    Related briefings

    Related indicators

    Economic losses from climate-related extremes Economic losses from climate-related extremes Over the period 1980-2016, t he total reported economic losses caused by weather and climate-related extremes in the EEA member countries amounted to approximately EUR 436 billion (in 2016 Euro values).  Average annual economic losses varied between EUR 7.4 billion over the period 1980-1989, EUR 13.3 billion (1990-1999) and EUR 13.9 billion (2000-2009). Between 2010 and 2016, average annual losses were around EUR 12.8 billion. This high variability makes the analysis of historical trends difficult, since the choice of years heavily influences the trend outcome. The observed variations in reported economic losses over time are difficult to interpret since a large share of the total deflated losses has been caused by a small number of events. Specifically, more than 70 % of economic losses were caused by just 3 % of all unique registered events. Between 1980 and 2016, natural disasters caused by weather and climate-related extremes accounted for some 83 % of the monetary losses in the EU Member States. Throughout these 37 years, weather and climate-related losses accounted for a total of EUR 410 billion (at 2016 values). Reported economic losses mainly reflect monetised direct damages to certain assets. The loss of human life, cultural heritage or ecosystem services is not part of the estimation. In the EU, the most expensive climate extremes in the  period  analysed include the 2002 flood in Central Europe (over EUR 20 billion), the 2003 drought and heat wave (almost EUR 15 billion), and the 1999 winter storm and October 2000 flood in Italy and France (EUR 13 billion), all at 2016 values.
    Global and European sea level Global and European sea level Global mean sea level in 2016 was the highest yearly average since measurements started in the late 19 th century; it was about 20 cm higher than at the beginning of the 20 th century. Estimates for the average rate of global sea level rise over the 20 th century range from 1.2 to 1.7 mm/year, with significant decadal variation. The rate of sea level rise since 1993, when satellite measurements became available, has been significantly higher, at around 3 mm/year. Evidence showing the predominant role of anthropogenic climate change in observed global mean sea level rise and the acceleration of sea level rise during recent decades has strengthened since the publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). All coastal regions in Europe have experienced an increase in absolute sea level, but with significant regional variation. Most coastal regions have also experienced an increase in sea level relative to land, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Atlantic coast, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound. Extreme high coastal water levels have increased at most locations along the European coastline. This increase appears to be predominantly due to increases in mean local sea level rather than to changes in storm activity. Global mean sea level rise during the 21st century will very likely occur at a higher rate than during the period 1971–2010. Process-based models considered in the IPCC AR5 project a rise in sea level over the 21st century (2100 vs. 1986–2005 baseline) that is likely (i.e. 66 % probability) in the range of 0.28–0.61 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.52–0.98 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). However, substantially higher values of sea level rise cannot be ruled out. Several recent model-based studies, expert assessments and national assessments have suggested an upper bound for 21st century global mean sea level rise in the range of 1.5–2.5 m. A recent study extending the IPCC AR5 projections estimates global sea level rise by 2300 to be in the range of 0.8–1.4 m for a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and 3.4–6.8 m for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). These values would rise substantially if the largest estimates of sea level contributions from Antarctica over the coming centuries were included. The rise in sea level relative to land along most European coasts is projected to be similar to the global average, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Atlantic coast, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound. Projected increases in extreme high coastal water levels are likely to mostly be the result of increases in local relative mean sea level in most locations. However, several recent studies suggest that increases in the meteorologically driven surge component could also play a substantial role, in particular along the northern European coastline. All available studies project that the damages from coastal floods in Europe would increase many-fold in the absence of adaptation, whereby the specific projections depend on the assumptions of the particular study.
    Global and European temperature Global and European temperature According to three different observational records of global average annual near-surface (land and ocean) temperature, the last decade (2007–2016) was 0.87 to 0.92 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Of the 17 warmest years on record, 16 have occurred since 2000. The year 2016 was the warmest on record, more than 1.1 °C warmer than the pre-industrial level, followed by 2015. The average annual temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2007–2016) was around 1.6 °C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Moreover, 2016 was the second warmest year (after 2014) in Europe since instrumental records began. Climate models project further increases in global average temperature over the 21st century (for the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005) of between 0.3 and 1.7 °C for the lowest emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and between 2.6 and 4.8 °C for the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5). All UNFCCC member countries have agreed on the long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels and have agreed to aim to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. For the three highest of the four RCPs, global average temperature increase is projected to exceed 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels by 2050. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to increase by the end of this century (2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000) in the range of 1 to 4.5 °C under RCP4.5 and 2.5 to 5.5 °C under RCP8.5, which is more than the projected global average increase. The strongest warming is projected across north-eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter and southern Europe in summer. The number of warm days (those exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of a baseline period) have doubled since 1960 across the European land area. Europe has experienced several extreme heat waves since 2000 (2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015). Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), extreme heat waves as strong as these or even stronger are projected to occur as often as every two years in the second half of the 21st century. In southern Europe they are projected to be particularly strong.
    Mean precipitation Mean precipitation Annual precipitation since 1960 shows an increasing trend of up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe, and a decrease of up to 90 mm per decade in some parts of southern Europe. At mid-latitudes no significant changes in annual precipitation have been observed. Mean summer precipitation has significantly decreased by up to 20 mm per decade in most of southern Europe, while significant increases of up to 18 mm per decade have been recorded in parts of northern Europe. Projected changes in precipitation vary substantially across regions and seasons. Annual precipitation is generally projected to increase in northern Europe and to decrease in southern Europe. The projected decrease in southern Europe is strongest in the summer.
    Hail Hail Hail events are among the most costly weather-related extreme events in several European regions, causing substantial damage to crops, vehicles, buildings and other infrastructure. The number of hail events is highest in mountainous areas and pre-Alpine regions. Since 1951, increasing hail trends have been noted in southern France and Austria, and decreasing (but not statistically significant) trends have been noted in parts of eastern Europe. Future projections of hail events are subject to large uncertainties, because small-scale hail events cannot be directly represented in global and regional climate models. However, model-based studies for central Europe show some agreement that hailstorm frequency will increase in this region.
    Wind storms Wind storms Storm location, frequency and intensity have shown considerable decadal variability across Europe over the past century, such that no significant long-term trends are apparent. Recent studies on changes in winter storm tracks generally project an extension eastwards of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe and the British Isles. Climate change simulations show diverging projections on changes in the number of winter storms across Europe. However, most studies agree that the risk of severe winter storms, and possibly of severe autumn storms, will increase for the North Atlantic and northern, north-western and central Europe over the 21st century.
    Heavy precipitation Heavy precipitation The intensity of heavy precipitation events in summer and winter have increased in northern and north-eastern Europe since the 1960s. Different indices show diverging trends for south-western and southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent in most parts of Europe. The projected changes are strongest in Scandinavia and eastern Europe in winter.
    Soil moisture Soil moisture Harmonised in situ data on soil moisture are not available across the EU. Modelled soil moisture content has significantly decreased in the Mediterranean region and increased in parts of northern Europe since the 1950s, as a result of past warming and precipitation changes. Significant decreases in summer soil moisture content in the Mediterranean region and increases in north-eastern Europe are projected for the coming decades.
    Water- and food-borne diseases Water- and food-borne diseases It is not possible to assess whether past climate change has already affected water- and food-borne diseases in Europe, but the sensitivity of pathogens to climate factors suggest that climate change could be having effects on these diseases. The number of vibriosis infections, which can be life-threatening, has increased substantially in Baltic Sea states since 1980. This increase has been linked to observed increases in sea surface temperature, which has improved environmental conditions for Vibrio species blooms in marine waters. The unprecedented number of vibriosis infections in 2014 has been attributed to the unprecedented 2014 heat wave in the Baltic region. Increased temperatures could increase the risk of salmonellosis. The risk of campylobacteriosis and cryptosporidiosis could increase in those regions where precipitation or extreme flooding is projected to increase. Climate change can have an impact on food safety hazards throughout the food chain.
    Meteorological and hydrological droughts Meteorological and hydrological droughts Drought has been a recurrent feature of the European climate. From 2006–2010, on average 15 % of the EU territory and 17 % of the EU population have been affected by meteorological droughts each year. The severity and frequency of meteorological and hydrological droughts have increased in parts of Europe, in particular in south-western and central Europe. Available studies project large increases in the frequency, duration and severity of meteorological and hydrological droughts in most of Europe over the 21st century, except for northern European regions. The greatest increase in drought conditions is projected for southern Europe, where it would increase competition between different water users, such as agriculture, industry, tourism and households.
    Heating and cooling degree days Heating and cooling degree days The number of population-weighted heating degree days (HDD) decreased by 8.2 % between the 1951–1980 and 1981–2014 periods; the decrease during the 1981–2014 period was on average 9.9 HDDs per year (0.45 % per year). The largest absolute decrease occurred in northern and north-western Europe. The number of population-weighted cooling degree days (CDD) increased by 49.1 % between the 1951–1980 and 1981–2014 periods; the increase during the period 1981–2014 was on average 1.2 HDDs per year (1.9 % per year). The largest absolute increase occurred in southern Europe. The projected decrease in HDDs as a result of future climate change during the 21st century is somewhat larger than the projected increase in CDDs in absolute terms. However, in economic terms, these two effects are almost equal in Europe, because cooling is generally more expensive than heating. The projected increases in the cooling demand in southern and central Europe may further exacerbate peaks in electricity demand in the summer unless appropriate adaptation measures are taken.
    Crop water demand Crop water demand Climate change led to an increase in the crop water demand and thus the crop water deficit from 1995 to 2015 in large parts of southern and eastern Europe; a decrease has been estimated for parts of north-western Europe. The projected increases in temperature will lead to increased evapotranspiration rates, thereby increasing crop water demand across Europe. This increase may partly be alleviated through reduced transpiration at higher atmospheric CO 2 levels. The impact of increasing water requirements is expected to be most acute in southern and central Europe, where the crop water deficit and irrigation requirements are projected to increase. This may lead to an expansion of irrigation systems, even in regions currently without irrigation systems. However, this expansion may be constrained by projected reductions in water availability and increased demand from other sectors and for other uses.
    Water-limited crop yield Water-limited crop yield Yields of several rainfed crops are levelling off (e.g. wheat in some European countries) or decreasing (e.g. grapes in Spain), whereas yields of other crops (e.g. maize in northern Europe) are increasing. These changes are attributed partly to observed climate change, in particular warming. Extreme climatic events, including droughts and heat waves, have negatively affected crop productivity in Europe during the first decade of the 21st century. Future climate change could lead to both decreases and increases in average yield, depending on the crop type and the climatic and management conditions in the region. There is a general pattern of projected increases in productivity in northern Europe and reductions in southern Europe, but with differences between crop types. Projected increases in extreme climatic events are expected to increase crop yield variability and to lead to yield reductions in the future throughout Europe.
    Agrophenology Agrophenology The flowering of several perennial and annual crops has advanced by about two days per decade during the last 50 years. Changes in crop phenology are affecting crop production and the relative performance of different crop species and varieties. The shortening of the grain-filling phase of cereals and oilseed crops can be particularly detrimental to yield. Shortening of the growth phases of many crops is expected to continue, but this may be altered by selecting other crop cultivars and changing planting dates, which in some cases can lead to longer growth periods.
    Growing season for agricultural crops Growing season for agricultural crops The thermal growing season for agricultural crops in Europe has lengthened by more than 10 days since 1992. The delay in the end of the growing season has been more pronounced than the advance of the start of the season. The length of the growing season has increased more in northern and eastern Europe than in western and southern Europe. The growing season is projected to increase further throughout most of Europe owing to the earlier onset of growth in spring and later senescence in autumn. The projected lengthening of the thermal growing season would allow a northwards expansion of warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable. In parts of southern Europe (e.g. Spain), warmer conditions will allow crop cultivation to be shifted to the winter.
    Vector-borne diseases Vector-borne diseases The transmission cycles of vector-borne diseases are sensitive to climatic factors, but disease risks are also affected by factors such as land use, vector control, human behaviour, population movements and public health capacities. Climate change is regarded as the principal factor behind the observed move of the tick species Ixodes ricinus — the vector of Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis in Europe — to higher latitudes and altitudes. Climate change is projected to lead to further northwards and upwards shifts in the distribution of Ixodes ricinus. It is generally suspected that climate change has played (and will continue to play) a role in the expansion of other disease vectors, notably the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can disseminate several diseases including dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and Phlebotomus species of sandflies, which transmit leishmaniasis. The unprecedented upsurge in the number of human West Nile fever infections in the summer of 2010 in south-eastern Europe was preceded by extreme hot spells in this region. High temperature anomalies in July were identified as contributing factors to the recurrent outbreaks in the subsequent years.
    Extreme temperatures and health Extreme temperatures and health Heat waves and extreme cold spells are associated with decreases in general population well-being and with increases in mortality and morbidity, especially in vulnerable population groups. Temperature thresholds for health impacts differ according to the region and season. The number of heat extremes has substantially increased across Europe in recent decades. Heat waves have caused tens of thousands of premature deaths in Europe since 2000. It is virtually certain that the length, frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase in the future. This increase will lead to a substantial increase in mortality over the next decades, especially in vulnerable population groups, unless adaptation measures are taken. Cold-related mortality is projected to decrease owing to better social, economic and housing conditions in many countries in Europe. There is inconclusive evidence about whether or not the projected warming will lead to a further substantial decrease in cold-related mortality.
    Floods and health Floods and health River and coastal flooding have affected many millions of people in Europe since 2000. Flooding affects human health through drowning, heart attacks, injuries, infections, exposure to chemical hazards and mental health consequences. Disruption of services, including health services, safe water, sanitation and transportation ways, plays a major role in vulnerability. Observed increases in heavy precipitation and extreme coastal water levels have increased the risk of river and coastal flooding in many European regions. In the absence of additional adaptation, the projected increases in extreme precipitation events and in sea level would substantially increase the health risks associated with river and coastal flooding in Europe.
    Forest fires Forest fires Fire risk depends on many factors, including climatic conditions, vegetation, forest management practices and other socio-economic factors. The burnt area in the Mediterranean region increased from 1980 to 2000; it has decreased thereafter. In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather and, as a consequence, an expansion of the fire-prone area and longer fire seasons are projected across Europe. The impact of fire events is particularly strong in southern Europe.
    Forest composition and distribution Forest composition and distribution Range shifts in forest tree species due to climate change have been observed towards higher altitudes and latitudes. These changes considerably affect the forest structure and the functioning of forest ecosystems and their services. Future climate change and increasing CO2 concentrations are expected to affect site suitability, productivity, species composition and biodiversity. In general, forest growth is projected to increase in northern Europe and to decrease in southern Europe, but with substantial regional variation. Cold-adapted coniferous tree species are projected to lose large fractions of their ranges to more drought-adapted broadleaf species. The projected changes will have an impact on the goods and services that forests provide. For example, the value of forest land in Europe is projected to decrease between 14 and 50 % during the 21st century.
    Distribution shifts of plant and animal species Distribution shifts of plant and animal species Observed climate change is having significant impacts on the distribution of European flora and fauna, with distribution changes of several hundred kilometres projected over the 21st century. These impacts include northwards and uphill range shifts, as well as local and regional extinctions of species. The migration of many species is lagging behind the changes in climate owing to intrinsic limitations, habitat use and fragmentation, and other obstacles, suggesting that they are unable to keep pace with the speed of climate change. Observed and modelled differences between actual and required migration rates may lead to a progressive decline in European biodiversity. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the problem of invasive species in Europe. As climatic conditions change, some locations may become more favourable to previously harmless alien species, which then become invasive and have negative impacts on their new environments. Climate change is affecting the interaction of species that depend on each other for food or other reasons. It can disrupt established interactions but also generate novel ones.
    Phenology of plant and animal species Phenology of plant and animal species The timing of seasonal events has changed across Europe. A general trend towards earlier spring phenological stages (spring advancement) has been shown in many plant and animal species, mainly due to changes in climate conditions. As a consequence of climate-induced changes in plant phenology, the pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier than it did and is longer than it was in the 1960s. The life cycles of many animal groups have advanced in recent decades, with events occurring earlier in the year, including frogs spawning, birds nesting and the arrival of migrant birds and butterflies. This advancement is attributed primarily to a warming climate. The breeding season of many thermophilic insects (such as butterflies, dragonflies and bark beetles) has been lengthening, allowing, in principle, more generations to be produced per year. The observed trends are expected to continue into the future. However, simple extrapolations of current phenological trends may be misleading because the observed relationship between temperature and phenological events may change in the future.
    Water temperature Water temperature Water temperatures in major European rivers have increased by 1–3 °C over the last century. Several time series show increasing lake and river temperatures all over Europe since the early 1900s. Lake and river surface water temperatures are projected to increase further with projected increases in air temperature. Increased water temperature can result in marked changes in species composition and functioning of aquatic ecosystems.
    River floods River floods Almost 1 500 floods have been reported for Europe since 1980, of which more than half have occurred since 2000. The number of very severe flood events in Europe increased over the period 1980–2010, but with large interannual variability. This increase has been attributed to better reporting, land-use changes and increased heavy precipitation in parts of Europe, but it is not currently possible to quantify the importance of these factors. Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe. Pluvial floods and flash floods, which are triggered by intense local precipitation events, are likely to become more frequent throughout Europe. In regions with projected reduced snow accumulation during winter, the risk of early spring flooding could decrease. However, quantitative projections of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain highly uncertain.
    River flow River flow Available studies suggest that run-off in near-natural rivers during the period 1963–2000 increased in western and northern Europe, in particular in winter, and decreased in southern and parts of eastern Europe, in particular in summer. However, comprehensive observation data on river flows are not available across Europe. Long-term trends in river flows due to climate change are difficult to detect because of substantial interannual and decadal variability, as well as modifications to natural water flows arising from water abstractions, morphological changes (such as man-made reservoirs) and land-use changes. Climate change is projected to result in significant changes in the seasonality of river flows across Europe. Summer flows are projected to decrease in most of Europe, including in regions where annual flows are projected to increase. Where precipitation shifts from snow to rain, spring and summer peak flow will shift to earlier in the season.
    Ocean oxygen content Ocean oxygen content Dissolved oxygen in sea water affects the metabolism of species. Therefore, reductions in oxygen content (i.e. hypoxic or anoxic areas) can lead to changes in the distribution of species, including so called ‘dead zones’. Globally, oxygen-depleted areas have expanded very rapidly in recent decades. The number of ‘dead zones’ has roughly doubled every decade since the 1960s and has increased from about 20 in the 1950s to about 400 in the 2000s. Oxygen-depleted zones in the Baltic Sea have increased more than 10-fold, from 5 000 to 60 000 km 2 , since 1900, with most of the increase happening after 1950. The Baltic Sea now has the largest dead zone in the world. Oxygen depletion has also been observed in other European seas in recent decades. The primary cause of oxygen depletion is nutrient input from agricultural fertilisers, causing eutrophication. The effects of eutrophication are exacerbated by climate change, in particular increases in sea temperature and in water-column stratification.
    Distribution shifts of marine species Distribution shifts of marine species Increases in regional sea temperatures have triggered a major northwards expansion of warmer water plankton and a northwards retreat of colder water plankton in the North-east Atlantic. This northerly movement has amounted to about 10 ° latitude (1 100 km) over the past 40 years, and it seems to have accelerated since 2000. Sub-tropical species are occurring with increasing frequency in Europe’s seas, and sub-Arctic species are receding northwards. Wild fish stocks are responding to changing temperatures and food supply by changing their distribution. This can have impacts on those local communities that depend on those fish stocks. Further changes in the distribution of marine species, including fish stocks, are expected with the projected climate change, but quantitative projections of these distribution changes are not widely available.
    Sea surface temperature Sea surface temperature All European seas have warmed considerably since 1870, and the warming has been particularly rapid since the late 1970s. The multi-decadal rate of sea surface temperature rise during the satellite era (since 1979) has been between 0.21 °C per decade in the North Atlantic and 0.40 °C per decade in the Baltic Sea. Globally averaged sea surface temperature is projected to continue to increase, although more slowly than atmospheric temperature.
    Ocean heat content Ocean heat content The warming of the oceans has accounted for approximately 93 % of the warming of the Earth since the 1950s. Warming of the upper (0–700 m) ocean accounted for about 64 % of the total heat uptake. A trend for increasing heat content in the upper ocean has become evident since the 1950s. Recent observations also show substantial warming of the deeper ocean (between depths of 700 and 2 000 m and below 3 000 m). Further warming of the oceans is expected with the projected climate change. The amount of warming is strongly dependent on the emissions scenario.
    Ocean acidification Ocean acidification Ocean surface pH has declined from 8.2 to below 8.1 over the industrial era as a result of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This decline corresponds to an increase in oceanic acidity of about 30 %. Ocean acidification in recent decades has been occurring 100 times faster than during past natural events over the last 55 million years. Observed reductions in surface water pH are nearly identical across the global ocean and throughout continental European seas, except for variations near the coast. The pH reduction in the northernmost European seas, i.e. the Norwegian Sea and the Greenland Sea, is larger than the global average. Ocean acidification already reaches into the deep ocean, particularly at the high latitudes. Models consistently project further ocean acidification worldwide. Ocean surface pH is projected to decrease to values between 8.05 and 7.75 by the end of 21st century, depending on future CO2 emissions levels. The largest projected decline represents more than a doubling in acidity. Ocean acidification is affecting marine organisms and this could alter marine ecosystems.
    Glaciers Glaciers The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately half of their volume since 1900, with clear acceleration since the 1980s. Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. It has been estimated that the volume of European glaciers will decline between 22 and 84 % compared with the current situation by 2100 under a moderate greenhouse gas forcing scenario, and between 38 and 89 % under a high forcing scenario. Glacier retreat contributed to global sea level rise by about 0.8 mm per year in 2003–2009. It also affects freshwater supply and run-off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. Furthermore, it may cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.
    Snow cover Snow cover Snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has declined significantly over the past 90 years, with most of the reductions occurring since 1980. Over the period 1967–2015, snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased by 7 % on average in March and April and by 47 % in June; the observed reductions in Europe are even larger, at 13 % for March and April and 76 % for June. Snow mass in the Northern Hemisphere is estimated to have decreased by 7 % in March from 1982 to 2009; snow mass in Europe has decreased more rapidly than the average for the Northern Hemisphere, but with large interannual variation. Model simulations project widespread reductions in the extent and duration of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and in Europe over the 21st century. Changes in snow cover affect the Earth’s surface reflectivity, water resources, flora and fauna and their ecology, agriculture, forestry, tourism, snow sports, transport and power generation.
    Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest bodies of ice in the world and play an important role in the global climate system. Both ice sheets have been losing large amounts of ice at an increasing rate since 1992. The cumulative ice loss from Greenland from 1992 to 2015 was 3 600 Gt and contributed to global sea level rise by approximately 10 mm; the corresponding figure for Antarctica is 1 500 Gt, which corresponds to approximately a 5 mm global sea level rise since 1992. Model projections suggest further declines of the polar ice sheets in the future, but the uncertainties are large.  The melting of the polar ice sheets is estimated to contribute up to 50 cm of global sea level rise during the 21st century. Very long-term projections (until the year 3000) suggest potential sea level rise of several metres with continued melting of the ice sheets.
    Arctic and Baltic sea ice Arctic and Baltic sea ice The extent and volume of the Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly since global data became available, especially in summer. Over the period 1979–2015, the Arctic has lost, on average, 42 000 km 2 of sea ice per year in winter and 89 000 km 2 per year by the end of summer. The nine lowest Arctic sea ice minima since records began in 1979 have been the September ice cover in each of the last nine years (2007–2015);  the record low Arctic sea ice cover in September 2012 was roughly half the average minimum extent of 1981–2010. The annual maximum ice cover in March 2015 and March 2016 were the lowest on record, and the ice is also getting thinner. The maximum sea ice extent in the Baltic Sea shows a decreasing trend since about 1800. The decrease appears to have accelerated since the 1980s, but the interannual variability is large. Arctic sea ice is projected to continue to shrink and thin. For high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in September is likely before mid-century. There will still be substantial ice in winter. Baltic Sea ice, in particular the extent of the maximal cover, is projected to continue to shrink.

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    Map 4.13 CCIV 67831-Past-trends-in-summer-soil_v3.eps Map 4.13 CCIV 67831-Past-trends-in-summer-soil_v3.eps
    Map 5.8 CCIV 68036-Time-series-of-Baltic-Sea-vibrio-case-v2.eps Map 5.8 CCIV 68036-Time-series-of-Baltic-Sea-vibrio-case-v2.eps
    Map 4.4 CCIV 50648-Trend in relative sea level_v5.eps Map 4.4 CCIV 50648-Trend in relative sea level_v5.eps
    Map 4.3 CCIV 50644-Trend-in-absolute-sea-level-V5.eps Map 4.3 CCIV 50644-Trend-in-absolute-sea-level-V5.eps Horizontal spatial distribution of mean sea level trend in European Seas (January 1993- December 2014)
    Map_3_9_67812_Change_in_the_frequency_of_flooding_events.xls Map_3_9_67812_Change_in_the_frequency_of_flooding_events.xls
    Map 5.17 CCIV 68122-Trend-in-heating-and-cooling-v8-significant.eps Map 5.17 CCIV 68122-Trend-in-heating-and-cooling-v8-significant.eps
    Map 4.12 CCIV 67826-Projected-change-in-20-year-V1.eps Map 4.12 CCIV 67826-Projected-change-in-20-year-V1.eps
    Map 4.9 CCIV 67823-Observed trends in frequency_v2.eps Map 4.9 CCIV 67823-Observed trends in frequency_v2.eps
    68119_Map4.15 Projected change in crop water deficit.xlsx 68119_Map4.15 Projected change in crop water deficit.xlsx
    Map 5.12 CCIC 68040-Projected-changes-in-winter-wheat-yield-v2.eps Map 5.12 CCIC 68040-Projected-changes-in-winter-wheat-yield-v2.eps
    Fig4.3-68039_with_metadata.xls Fig4.3-68039_with_metadata.xls
    Map4.13-metadata.xls Map4.13-metadata.xls
    Map 5.14 CCIV 68039_Probability-of-the-occurrence_v8.eps Map 5.14 CCIV 68039_Probability-of-the-occurrence_v8.eps
    Map4.12-metadata.xls Map4.12-metadata.xls
    Metadata_Map_ 4_1_Deaths per million 1991-2015_HFU.xls Metadata_Map_ 4_1_Deaths per million 1991-2015_HFU.xls
    Map 5.1 CCIV 68026-Deaths-per-million-related-v3.eps Map 5.1 CCIV 68026-Deaths-per-million-related-v3.eps
    Fig3.12-67819-Projected-change-in-daily-05.eps Fig3.12-67819-Projected-change-in-daily-05.eps
    Map 4.7 CCIV 67818-Model-based-estimate-of-past-change_v2.eps Map 4.7 CCIV 67818-Model-based-estimate-of-past-change_v2.eps
    Map 4.1 CCIV 69726_Distribution of oxygen-depleted dead zones in European seas.eps Map 4.1 CCIV 69726_Distribution of oxygen-depleted dead zones in European seas.eps
    Metadata_Map4.11.xls Metadata_Map4.11.xls
    Map 5.7 CCIV 68035-Projected-future-distribution-of-West-Nile-Virus-infections_v4.eps Map 5.7 CCIV 68035-Projected-future-distribution-of-West-Nile-Virus-infections_v4.eps
    Agriculture Agriculture The agricultural sector is one of the main land users in Europe and thus shapes landscapes in rural areas. It has various direct and indirect impacts on the environment and depends itself on natural resources. Patterns of agricultural production vary considerably across Europe and no general picture can be drawn. Emissions from agriculture arising from, for example, the use of fertilisers and pesticides, have decreased recently.

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