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Projected annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season in Europe for the period 2015-2045 for two climate scenarios. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and the water available through precipitation. The climate forcing of the two simulations is based on the two global climate models HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project (Warszawski et al., 2014). Crop model simulations have been done with the crop model WOFOST at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and water availability, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the water available through precipitation have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of water.
This figure shows the rate of change of the flowering date for winter wheat. The annual rate of change of the flowering date represents the trend coefficient for long-term changes in the occurrence of flowering of winter wheat in Europe. For example, a value -0.6 indicates that in last 30 years the winter wheat flowering date has been anticipated on average by 0.6 days per year (6 days in 10 years). The flowering date is derived from crop growth models simulating crop development of winter wheat as a function of the temperature sum. The simulation is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution.
Simulated change in mean water-limited crop yield of winter wheat between the baseline period around year 2000 and 2030. The four simulations are a combination of two climate models (HadGEM2 and MIROC, taken from CMIP5 archive and bias-corrected by the ISI-MIP project), and the crop model WOFOST at 25 km spatial resolution, with and without taking into account the effect of CO2 fertilization. Crop variety and agro-management practice have been kept constant. For each time horizon of 2000 and 2030, a 30-year averaging period has been considered. Red colours show a reduction in winter wheat yield, while green colours indicate an increase in crop productivity in the given period as a response to the climate signal of each climate scenario (Araujo Enciso et al., 2014).
Annual rate of change of the crop water deficit of grain maize during the growing season for the period 1985-2014 in Europe. The crop water deficit is the difference between the crop-specific water requirement (in this case grain maize) and available water through precipitation. The simulation is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution. Red colours show an increase of the gap between crop water requirement and the available water, blue colours indicate a reduction of the deficit. Areas where the seasonal crop water requirement exceeds regularly (i.e. in more than 90 % of the years) the available water (through precipitation) have been marked by hatches. Areas without hatches experience both deficit and surplus or only a surplus of water in their crop water balance. In this case, red colours refer to a reduced surplus, while blue colours indicate an increasing surplus of available water.
The maps displays information and the presence/absence of Aedes albopictus. RED: An established population (evidence of reproduction and overwintering) of the species has been observed in at least one municipality within the administrative unit. YELLOW: The species has been introduced (but without confirmed establishment) in the administrative unit within the last 5 years of the distribution status date DARK GREEN: Field surveys or studies on mosquitoes were conducted and no introduction (during the last 5 years) or no established population of the species have been reported MEDIUM GREY: No data for the last 5 years are available to local experts LIGHT GREY: No information is available about field studies on mosquitoes during the last 5 years.
The maps displays information and the prsence/absence of Ixodes ricinus RED The species is known to have been present at least in one municipality within the administrative unit. YELLOW The species has been introduced in the administrative unit without confirmed establishment. LIGHT GREY No information is available on the existence of field studies on ticks.
Districts with probable and confirmed cases of West Nile infections
The maps shows the risk for Chikungunya transmission in Europe generated by combining temperature requirements of the Chikungunya virus with the climatic suitability of the vector Aedes albopictus. Projections for different time-frames are based on projections by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for two emission scenarios (A1B, a medium scenario and B1, a low scenario). The "current situation" refers to the 1960-1990 baseline climate.
Exposure-response associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities, together with related temperatures distributions. The shaded grey area delineates the 95 % empirical confidence interval. Solid grey vertical lines are minimum mortality temperatures and dashed grey vertical lines delineate the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile temperatures.
Forest fire danger is expressed by the average Seasonal Severity Rating index (derived from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System). Average 2071-2100 SSR levels are shown in the map. The SSR series was computed usign the GCM-RCM run KNMI-RACMO2-ECHAM5 of ENSEMBLES project.
The two panels indicate to what degree broadleaf (left panel) and needleleaf (right panel) tree species are expected to increase (blue) or decrease (brown) in numbers. The results represent species distribution modelling, using climate projections from six regional climate models using the A1B scenario of future emissions.
The map shows the projected change in the climatic suitable area for the Bumblebee Bombus terrestris (the largest and one of the most numerous bumblebee species in Europe) under the combined climate-land use scenario SEDG (Sustainable European Development Goal, including SRES B1) and GRAS (including SRES A2).
This figure shows the projected change in seasonal streamflow (averaged over seven days) for twelve rivers.
100-year daily peak flow (Q100). Relative change for the time slices 2006-2035, 2036-2065 and 2066–2095 compared to the ensemble mean of the baseline (1976–2005), based on an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios. Data points with CV>1 are greyed out. (CV = coefficient of variation)
The pronounced dipole pattern found for the annual flow trends appears to reflect the wetting trend pattern of the winter period (ca. December to April) in the north and northwest and the widespread drying trend pattern from late winter to late summer (ca. February–August) in southern and parts of eastern Europe
Circles depict scientifically reported accounts of eutrophication-associated dead zones. The area covered by 'dead zones' is not presented, as such information is not generally available.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/find/global or scan the QR code.
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