Climate change mitigation - Why care? (Montenegro)

Montenegro became a member of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on 27 January 2007 as a non-Annex 1 country. The Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2007. Since EU accession is a national priority, harmonisation of Montenegrin legislation with the relevant parts of the acquis communautaire on the environment and climate change is a very important part of this process.

The issue of climate change is addressed in Montenegro’s first national report on climate change, based on the UNFCCC. Submission of this document to the Convention Secretariat is scheduled for October 2010. This first national report presents detailed national characteristics and a national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, a general description of steps taken or planned for the implementation of the Convention, vulnerability assessment, climate change adaptation and mitigation measures and other information relevant to the objectives of the Convention. It also details obstacles, shortcomings and requirements in terms of financial and technical resources to strengthen the capacity for reporting.

During the period 1949-2005 changes occurred in the value of climatic parameters for air temperature and precipitation at the national level. Measurements indicate a clear trend towards an increase in air temperatures throughout most of the territory of Montenegro in the second half of the twentieth century. Summers have become very hot, especially over the last 18 years. For the summer period from 1991 to 2005, average temperature deviations from the climatological norm, expressed as a percentage, ranged from 90 to 98 %. Moreover, results of scenarios for future climatic models in the region indicate that there will be further significant change in temperature, for example during the period 2071-2100, the northern part of the country will experience an increase in summer temperatures by up to 4.8 ⁰C.

Annual precipitation is generally stable. Exceptions are the northern regions of Montenegro and the coast. In the north-east of the state, precipitation has been increasing since 1949, whereas on the coast there is a trend towards a slight reduction. Model results indicate both negative and positive change in precipitation, depending on the zone and the season.

One consequence of global warming is an increase in sea level. Predictions for the upper limit increase in sea level in the Mediterranean Sea basin (including the Adriatic-Ionian basin) for the period 2071-2100 is +35 cm. An increase of this calibre in the Adriatic Sea will have serious consequences. Water will permanently flood a large part of the coast that is already at risk of flooding and tidal flood waves will significantly increase the flood area, even in zones that have never been flooded before and a great many beaches will disappear.