Climate change mitigation - Outlook 2020 (Portugal)

Portugal’s commitment as part of the EU burden-sharing agreement under the Kyoto Protocol is to limit the increase of its GHG emissions to 27 % between 1990 and the first commitment period of 2008-2012. Portugal’s assigned amount under Kyoto for the period 2008-2012 is 382 Mt CO₂e, or 76.39 Mt CO₂e/year.

Portugal is actively committed to complying with Kyoto and reducing its GHG emissions. The main instruments for fulfilling Portugal’s obligations under climate change agreements are the National Climate Change Programme (PNAC 2006 and new measures in 2007), the Emission Trading Scheme - National Allocation Plan 2008-2012 (PNALE II) and the Portuguese Carbon Fund.

National projections indicate that Portugal will meet its Kyoto target. According to PNAC projections for the reference scenario, it is estimated that Portugal’s GHG emissions will reach 84.61 Mt CO₂e by 2010. The GHG emissions reduction potential from additional measures (3.69 Mt CO₂e/year) will result in total emissions of 80.9 Mt CO₂e by 2010 under the PNAC 2006 scenario “with additional measures”. Taking into consideration the emissions reduction potential of the new 2007 measures (evaluated as 1.56 Mt CO₂e/year), the emissions will be 79.36 Mt CO₂e. This value is 2.97 Kt CO₂e higher than the assigned amount under the Kyoto target (76.39 Kt CO₂e). With the emissions reduction effort of 0.09 Mt CO₂e/year from PNALE II the emissions deficit will amount to 2.88 Mt CO₂e/year and this will be compensated by the Portuguese Carbon Fund (see figure below).

Figure 14 Use of the various mechanisms to comply with Kyoto

During 2008, a study was conducted using the TIMES model to evaluate the impact of the proposals contained in the EU climate and energy package for Portugal for 2020. The study included estimates of the GHG emissions situation for the activities covered and not covered by the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS), and for the renewable component in the total national energy balance for 2020.

It should be emphasised that the PT TIMES model was made to accommodate a series of policies and measures (P & M), with four P & M scenarios considered for analysis, resulting in the respective emissions scenarios for 2020: Business-as-Usual Scenario (BAU), Kyoto Trend Scenario (QUIT), Kyoto Change Scenario (QUIM) and Road Map Renewables Scenario (RMAP).

The study concluded that the development of GHG emissions resulting from activities not covered by the ETS is very similar for all the scenarios studied (‐4 % and ‐5 %), with the exception of the BAU (+6 %), showing the importance of the additional PNAC measures. Transport is the sector showing the most significant reduction, resulting from the renewal of the fleet, the assumed intermodal transfers, as considered in PNAC 2006, and the inclusion of bio fuels. As a consequence it would become the third highest sector for emissions, after energy supply and industry. Despite the increase in demand for energy services, a reduction is forecast in emissions from the service sector due to the substitution of heating oil for electricity and the use of more efficient technologies.

Emissions from activities under the ETS will see a similar increase for all scenarios (+8 % and +10 % against 2005 levels), with the exception of the RMAP (‐11 %), The electricity-production sector will continue to be the main source, responsible for over 50 % of emissions in ETS (with the exception of the RMAP scenario).