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Indicator Assessment
Projected changes in the volume of all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the European glaciated regions
Note: This figure shows the projected volume (in cubic km) for 2001–2100 of all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the European glaciated regions derived using a mass balance model driven with temperature and precipitation scenarios from 10 GCMs. European Alps (top left), Scandinavia (top right), Iceland (bottom left), Svalbard (bottom right).
Past trends
A general loss of glacier mass has occurred in nearly all European glacier regions (Figure 1). The Alps have lost about two thirds of their ice mass since 1850 [i][ii][iii] and individual glaciers have faced even greater losses. Glaciers in different regions have been affected somewhat differently by recent climate change. In particular, Norwegian coastal glaciers were expanding and gaining mass up to the end of the 1990s due to increased winter snowfall on the north Atlantic coast. Now these glaciers are also retreating [iv][v]. Some ice caps at higher elevations in north-eastern Svalbard seem to be increasing in thickness [vi][vii], but estimates for Svalbard as a whole show a declining mass balance [viii][ix]. The centennial retreat of European glaciers is attributed primarily to increased summer temperatures. However, changes in winter precipitation, reduced glacier albedo due to the lack of summer snow fall and various other feedback processes, such as the increasing debris cover on the glacier, can influence the behaviour of glaciers, in particular on a regional and decadal scale.
Projections
The retreat of European glaciers is projected to continue throughout the 21st century. One study estimate that the volume of European glaciers will decline between 22 and 66 % compared to the current situation (all European regions combined) (see Figure 2) [x]. The relative volume loss is largest in the European Alps (76 ± 15 % standard deviation of 10 climate scenarios). In Norway nearly all smaller glaciers are projected to disappear and overall glacier area as well as volume may be reduced by about one third by 2100 even under the low SRES B2 emissions scenario[xi]. If summer air temperatures were to rise by 3 °C and precipitation remained constant, the European Alps could lose about 80 % of their average ice cover compared to the period 1971–1990 [xii].
[i] Michael Zemp et al., „Worldwide glacier mass balance measurements: General trends and first results of the extraordinary year 2003 in Central Europe“, Data Glaciol. Stud. 99 (2005): 3–12.
[ii] Michael Zemp et al., „Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades?“, Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L13504, doi:10.1029/2006GL026319.
[iii] Michael Zemp et al., „Glacier Fluctuations in the European Alps, 1850-2000: An Overview and a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Available Data“, in Darkening Peaks: Glacier Retreat, Science, and Society, ed. Benjamin S. Orlove, Ellen Wiegandt, und Brian H. Luckman (Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2008), 152–167.
[iv] Liss M. Andreassen et al., „Glacier mass-balance and length variation in Norway“, Annals of Glaciology 42, Nr. 1 (August 1, 2005): 317–325, doi:10.3189/172756405781812826.
[v] Atle Nesje et al., „Norwegian mountain glaciers in the past, present and future“, Global and Planetary Change 60, Nr. 1–2 (Januar 2008): 10–27, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.08.004.
[vi] Jonathan Bamber, „Anomalous recent growth of part of a large Arctic ice cap: Austfonna, Svalbard“, Geophysical Research Letters 31, Nr. 12 (2004), doi:10.1029/2004GL019667.
[vii] Suzanne Bevan et al., „Positive mass balance during the late 20th century on Austfonna, Svalbard, revealed using satellite radar interferometry“, Annals of Glaciology 46, Nr. 1 (Oktober 1, 2007): 117–122, doi:10.3189/172756407782871477.
[viii] Jon Ove Hagen et al., „Glaciers in Svalbard: mass balance, runoff and freshwater flux“, Polar Research 22, Nr. 2 (Dezember 2003): 145–159, doi:10.1111/j.1751-8369.2003.tb00104.x.
[ix] J. Kohler et al., „Acceleration in thinning rate on western Svalbard glaciers“, Geophysical Research Letters 34, Nr. 18 (September 21, 2007), doi:10.1029/2007GL030681.
[x] Valentina Radić and Regine Hock, „Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise“, Nature Geoscience 4 (Januar 9, 2011): 91–94, doi:10.1038/ngeo1052.
[xi] Nesje et al., „Norwegian mountain glaciers in the past, present and future“.
[xii] Zemp et al., „Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades?“.
In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.
The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.
No targets have been specified.
Various methods are used to estimate mass balances. A literature overview can be found under http://www.wgms.ch/literature.html .
Projections of volume changes are based on melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models.
Not applicable
Data on the cryosphere vary significantly with regard to availability and quality. Snow and ice cover have been monitored globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Improvements in technology allow for more detailed observations and higher resolution.
Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/glaciers-1/assessment or scan the QR code.
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