Observed annual mean temperature trend from 1960 to 2021 (left panel) and projected 21st century temperature change under different SSP scenarios (right panels) in Europe

Left panel: Figure shows the linear trend of mean annual temperature over the period 1960-2021. A two-sided Student's t test for the null hypothesis of no trend is applied and grid cells with non-statisticaly significant results are hatched.

Right panels:

• Left map: 

  Data are based on the ensemble mean of 32 global CMIP6 models, results are interpolated onto the CMIP6 reference grid of 1 x 1 degrees using a conservative method, temporal aggregation is carried out by calculating mean values from daily data for the whole period. Data shown in the map are calculated for each grid cell as the arithmetic difference between historical projection 1981–2010 and future projection for the period 2081–2100 using the SSP1-2.6 scenario.
  
  

• Right map: Data are based on the ensemble mean of 34 global CMIP6 models, results are interpolated onto the CMIP6 reference grid of 1 x 1 degrees using a conservative method, temporal aggregation is carried out by calculating mean values from daily data for the whole period.  Data shown in the map are calculated for each grid cell as the arithmetic difference between historical projection 1981–2010 and future projection for the period 2081–2100 using the SSP5-8.5 scenario. 
• Both maps: SSP scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are the new scenarios representing different socio-economic developments as well as different pathways of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Five narratives describe the different paths of economy and society (SSP1-SSP5) from the sustainable and “green” pathway (SSP1) to fossil-fueled development and integration of global markets (SSP5). Individual scenarios are followed by two numerals indicating the additional radiative forcing achieved by the year 2100 in units of watts per square meter.

Right panel: °C/decade

Left panels: °C