Climate change mitigation - Drivers and pressures ()

Greenhouse gas inventory for 1990

In its first national report Montenegro determined 1990 as the base year for its GHG inventory. For 1990, total GHG emissions amounted to 691.56 Gg of CO₂, 27.02 Gg of CH₄ and 1.19 Gg of N₂O. CO₂ gas is the main GHG with a share of 53.08 %. The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed in the "sinks" is 485.00 Gg. Calculated emissions of PFC gases from the aluminium industry were 0.1936 Gg of CF₄ and 00:02 C₂F₆. The total amount of CO₂ equivalent is 4 585.28 Gg
(5 070.28 Gg excluding the contribution from sinks). The energy sector contributes 92 % of CO₂ emissions, which corresponds to 2 491.92 Gg, calculated on the basis of sectoral approaches. The remaining 8 % (199.64 Gg) comes from industrial emissions.

The total CO₂ equivalent emission (including sinks) per capita is 7.7 tonnes CO₂ eq/citizen, ranking Montenegro among the low-emission countries in relation to developed countries. The ratio of CO₂ emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels (4.55 t CO₂ eq/citizen) is favourable because of a significant share of synthetic gases in the total emissions. Montenegro’s Environmental Protection Agency is currently collecting data for the GHG inventory for 2010.

Energy

The main characteristic of the energy sector in Montenegro is the high intensity of energy consumption. This is primarily due to the large share of industrial consumers using outdated and insufficiently energy-efficient technology. Energy consumption is also inefficient in the household and services sector, especially with regard to heating and the use of electricity. Traffic is characterised by a constant increase in the number of vehicles and the consumption of motor fuels. Other sectors have lower consumption and therefore do not represent a problem at present, but they may do so in the future if consumption rates continue to rise and measures are not taken to promote energy efficiency.

Depending on how energy needs are met in certain sectors, two scenarios were considered for the period 2010-2025: a reference scenario, with a complete absence of measures to reduce GHG emissions and a scenario with measures to reduce GHG emissions.

To create GHG emission scenarios it is necessary to make projections on  the growth of energy demand. These projections are based on assumptions concerning economic development and demographic growth. The basic indicators of economic development are the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) and the development of its structure during the period in question. Thus the following basic parameters are assumed in terms of energy needs for the development of Montenegro:

• average annual growth rate of the economy: 6 %

• average annual growth rate of the population: 0.16 %.

Power generation for the Montenegrin electricity system currently comes from the Pljevlja thermal power plant, that uses lignite as fuel, two large hydroelectric power plants (Piva and Perućica) and 6 smaller ones. The existing plants will be operational until 2025.

The reference scenario for the development of electric power is based on the assumption that the Pljevlja thermal power plant will increase its capacity from 210 MW to 225 MW in the period up to 2010 and that new electricity generating capacity will be developed: a second block at the Pljevlja thermal power plant will generate 225 MW of power from 2015 and the Moraca hydroelectric plant (Andrijevo, Milunović, Raslovići and Zlatica) will be gradually introduced into the system between 2013 and 2018, resulting in a total capacity of 238.4 MW.

The scenario with measures to reduce GHG emissions in the electricity sector offers an alternative to the construction of another thermal block at the Pljevlja plant. This scenario is oriented towards the exploitation of new renewable energy sources and primarily based on small hydro and wind farms. In addition to the various production structures, this scenario includes increasing the efficiency of the existing block at the Pljevlja thermal power plant. New production facilities include small hydroelectric plants totalling 80.2 MW of power that will become part of the system between 2010 and 2012; wind power totalling 96 MW and 168 MW of power from the hydroelectric power plant Komarnica that will go into operation in 2017.

Transport

The transport sector is responsible for approximately 10 % of total energy consumption in Montenegro. Almost 90 % of the energy consumed in transport comes from road traffic, predominantly cars. This trend is expected to increase in the future, due to the growth in the number of cars and a reduction in the number of passengers per car. Road transport is the sector that offers the main potential for introducing energy efficiency measures (EE) to rationalise energy consumption. Measures being introduced in the transport sector focus on the development of sustainable transport.

In order to reduce GHG emissions in road traffic, it is necessary to implement a package of measures including:

•  An increase in the energy efficiency of Montenegro’s vehicle fleet

•  The introduction of alternative fuels and substitutes for existing fossil fuels

•  The planning and establishment of a more efficient transport system.

Figure 1. Total potential of the measures analysed in the field of transport. The reference scenario is indicated by a brown line and the scenario with measures for GHG emission reduction is indicated by a blue line.

Source: Ministry of Physical Planning and Environment of Montenegro.