Country profile - Future developments (Spain)

Demography

According to the annual population census, spanish population in 2009 was 46.7 million, 15.4% upper than in 2000 with an average annual growth of 1.7%. Of this population, 5.7 million were foreign residents (mainly Romania with 798,892 residents, Morocco with 718,055 and Ecuador with 421 426).

The most recent advances in population projections made by the INE ("Short term population projection in Spain from 2010 to 2020" Press Release of October 7, 2010) state that the population will grow by 2.7% until 2020 with the current demographic trends, compared with 14.8% growth over the last decade.

Spain will keep an annual rate of population growth in the coming years less than 0.35% with a slight downward trend. After some years of high population growth, Spain will reach just over 47 million people in 2020, with the current demographic trends. Thus, in the period 2010-2020 the resident population will grow by 1.2 million (2.7%) compared to the 5.9 million increase (14.8%) in the first decade of the century. On annual average, population growth would be 124,591 inhabitants, lower than 593,931 in the past decade.

The foreign population input may diminish over the next few years due to the economic crisis and to the growth of unemployment, as well as a result of the immigration restriction measures enforced throughout Europe, but it is estimated to hold around 250,000 people annually in the next decade.

Economy and Society

In the current economic crisis situation is not easy to make forecasts on economic growth of countries. The reports of the International Monetary Fund differ from those of the OECD, which are quite different from those taken by the countries. In its Economic Outlook (No. 85, June 2009) the OECD expects to Spain's GDP fell 4.2% in 2009. By 2010 the reduction will be 0.9%. The unemployment rate will reach 20% in 2010 and inflation will fall to near zero. The government deficit its expected to reach 9.5% of GDP in 2010.

 Spanish society is thinking about a change in the production model, which must be carried out in the coming decades, in order to achieve a balance among productive sectors, limiting the development of construction and proceeding with the intensification of the implementation of environmental criteria in all fields of activity. This new production model must be based upon four main courses of action: increasing energy savings and efficiency; reducing the consumption of fossil fuels by fostering renewable energy sources; enhancing the introduction of new technologies and promoting innovation in every production process. In connection with the new information technologies (ICT) it must be pointed out that Spain is still making progress with their introduction, currently being on a level with the countries belonging to the EU-27, although slightly below the EU-15. In 2009, the most of Spanish homes had a computer (66.3%), telephone (80.3%), mobile phone (93.5%); and Digital Terrestrial Television receiver (99.6%). In addition, 54% of homes had Internet access (51.3% of which, through broadband connection). Approximately, 18.5 million people utilize this medium frequently. It is foreseeable that this process keeps making headway over the coming decades, thus facilitating the change in the economic model.

The new, knowledge-based economy needs to exploit, at a first stage, the possibilities opened up by the information society. The development of alternative and renewable sources of energy (wind power, solar power, etc.) will not only mean an achievement with a view to reducing our energy dependence, but will also become one of our most competitive industries.

The urban environment, where the greatest part of the Spanish population resides (in 2008 78.6% population lived in cities over 10,000 inhabitants), must undergo such modifications as may be required to achieve an improvement in the quality of life. To that end, efforts must be pursued to improve air quality, the pedestrianism of streets, sustainable building and the efficient use of energy. Current metropolitan areas (large, medium and small) must streamline the use of transport by improving the suburban train services and facilitating intermodal development.

More information

• Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). Ine Base. Cifras de población y Censos demográficos. Estimaciones y proyecciones de población. http://www.ine.es/inebmenu/mnu_cifraspob.htm
• Ministerio de la Presidencia. España hoy 2008. http://www.la-moncloa.es/docs/pdfs/EspaniaHoy2008/ESP08_00.pdf
• OECD, 2009.  Economic Outlook Nº 85.  http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,3343,en_2649_34109_20347538_1_1_1_37443,00.html