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Policy Document

COM(2006) 571 final - The demographic future of Europe – From challenge to opportunity

Policy Document
(EC, 2006)

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Related indicators

Indicator Specification
Archived
Population trends 1950 – 2100: globally and within Europe Population is defined as the “de facto population in a country, area or region as of 1 July of the year indicated” ( UN, 2015b ). Population changes from one year to another are due to natural population change (the difference between the number of live births and deaths during a given time period) ( Eurostat, 2015 ) and net migration (the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants) ( UN, 2015b ) in a given country or region. The figures presented in this indicator include population estimates for 1950-2015 and eight projection variants for 2015-2100. These projection variants have been developed by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) on the basis of varying assumptions related to fertility rates, mortality rates and international migration (for details see the Methodology section). The table below summarises the eight projection variants as defined in the World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision ( UN, 2015a ). Assumptions Projection variant Fertility Mortality International migration Low fertility Low Normal Normal Medium fertility Medium Normal Normal High fertility High Normal Normal Constant fertility Constant as of 2010–2015 Normal Normal Instant replacement fertility Instant replacement as of 2015-2020 Normal Normal Constant mortality Medium Constant as of 2010–2015 Normal No change Constant as of 2010–2015 Constant as of 2010–2015 Normal Zero-migration Medium Normal Zero as of 2015–2020 Time horizon: 1950-2100 Geographical coverage: global, with specific attention to world regions and Europe. World regions are specified as defined by the United Nations Population Division - Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Asia, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania. References Eurostat, 2015, ' Glossary: Natural population change ' UN, 2015a, 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 revision'   UN, 2015b, 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision — Glossary of demographic terms'  
Indicator Specification
Archived
Population change – Outlook from UN DESA Population includes all residents regardless of legal status and citizenship. Population change is defined as the “population increment over a period, that is, the difference between the population at the end of the period and that at the beginning of the period. It refers to five-year periods running from 1 July to 30 June of the initial and final years” ( UN, 2013c ). Within this indicator this includes natural population change (the difference between the number of live births and deaths during a given time period) ( Eurostat, 2015 ) and net migration (the difference between the number of persons entering and leaving a country during a given period) ( UN, 2013c ). The figures presented in this indicator include historical data and eight projection variants. These projection variants have been developed by UN DESA on the basis of varying assumptions related to fertility rates, mortality rates and international migration (for details see the Methodology section). The table below summarises the eight projections variants as defined in the World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision( UN, 2013d ). Assumptions Projection variant Fertility Mortality International migration Low fertility Low Normal Normal Medium fertility Medium Normal Normal High fertility High Normal Normal Constant fertility Constant as of 2005 – 2010 Normal Normal Instant replacement fertility Instant replacement as of 2010 - 2015 Normal Normal Constant mortality Medium Constant as of 2005 – 2010 Normal No change Constant as of 2005 – 2010 Constant as of 2005 – 2010 Normal Zero-migration Medium Normal Zero as of 2010 – 2015 Time horizon: 1950 to 2100 Geographical coverage: global, with specific attention to world regions and Europe. World regions are specified as defined by the United Nations Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Asia; Africa; Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Northern America; Oceania. References Eurostat, 2015, ' Glossary: Natural population change ' UN, 2013c, ' World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision — Glossary of demographic terms ' UN, 2013d, ' World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision — Highlights and advance tables ', Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.228, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), New York, US.

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